When will the COVID-19 Crisis end in India?
The big question in everyone’s mind is when will COVID-19 crisis end in India?
by Subhash Chandra, CEO CrowdWisdom360
This question is particularly important because India registered the highest number of cases yesterday.
In my view, the answer to this question is quite complex. Here is why
– Incidence of COVID-19 is not consistent across. States like Kerala and Jammu & Kashmir are quite severely impacted while States like Odisha, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Uttarakhand have few or no cases
– Within a State, incidence of COVID-19 is not consistent. In Kerala for example, 5 districts constitute 80% of the cases. Only 33% of the population live in those districts
– While COVID-19 cases have been fatal all over the world, the concentration of deaths has been at the > 60 age band
– It is increasingly clear that wearing masks and maintaining hygiene slows down the impact of COVID-19. Read this here
– Further, companies and governments are beginning to start testing both medication and vaccines against COVID-19
– Lastly, looking at China which appears to have overcome the crisis, it appears it has taken them about 10 to 12 weeks to bring down the numbers to the small numbers that they are today. We can see the numbers falling off with Italy too and at this rate, they could be down to very small numbers in 6 weeks time.
The biggest joker in the pack is the economic impact. The economic impact is quite severe and in particular for a poor country like India which was trending downwards for the last 2 years.
Here is How the COVID-19 crisis will end in India
– Firstly, we are unlikely to beat the Global trend of 10-12 weeks and so it is unlikely that numbers will come down to a trickle before end of May. However I am optimistic that our peak will not be at the scale seen in US or Italy. Given the lockdown, our numbers are likely to peak at a smaller level
– Secondly, The Government strategy is likely to focus on Isolation. Not just Isolation of Individuals but also of communities. Which means that if no one is infected in a community, the focus will be to support ecosystems within that community and prevent infections to enter that community. The definition of a community can be quite broad – Whole State, Whole District, Whole City, Whole Village, Whole locality within a city or Village. Safety will be to prevent people from Outside the community entering the community and infecting it.
When will a community be counted as infection free?
a. When no one in the community has reported to a hospital in 10 day
b. Depending on the size of the community, random sample of people tested does not reveal any infected people in the community
– The idea will be to keep expanding the community gradually over time so that all communities can gradually be integrated into the city/village, district and state.
Likely Dates when the COVID-19 crisis will end in India
– In my view it will end at different time for different communities. For some communities, it will perhaps end on April 15th but they will not be able to interact with infected communities (even if many individuals within the infected community are free of infection)
– To those living in a community with multiple cases of infection, the wait will be longer (Until no reported case for 10 days and sampling produces no hidden cases).
Here is what the Government is likely to do on April 15th
– Extend the dates by 2-3 weeks. This will completely depend on how many new cases we are adding daily. Should the number be in the thousands, it is unlikely the Government will end the Lockdown
– Extend the dates by 2-3 weeks only for certain regions and demographic groups (Very Young and Very Old for example). If the numbers are not very bad
– Not extend the dates at all and isolate those are suffering. If the numbers are very small.
Therefore as Indians, we must do our best to keep the numbers low on April 15th. Social Distancing, Wear Masks and get yourself tested if feeling unwell.