Gujarat Exit Polls 2022: BJP-134, Congress-37, AAP-8
Exit Polls 2022
- India Today AxisMyIndia
BJP-140, Congress-23, AAP-15
- ABP Cvoter
BJP-134, Congress-37, AAP-7
- Republic TV
BJP-138, Congress-36, AAP-6
- Jan Ki Baat
BJP-129, Congress-42, AAP-10
BJP-127, Congress-45, AAP-4
Opinion Poll Gujarat 2022: The latest Gujarat Opinion Poll shows BJP heading for a victory while AAP continues to gain from Congress
Latest Opinion Poll Gujarat 2022: BJP -138, INC – 32, AAP – 11
- Gujarat Opinion Poll 2022 (Average of last 3 Polls)
- Seats: BJP – 123, Congress – 45, AAP – 12
- Vote Share: BJP – 44.8%, Congress – 32.9%, AAP – 16.3%
- Google Search Share:
- BJP: 58% (Steady)
- Congress: 22% (Steady)
- AAP: 20% (Steady)
- Social Media Sentiment: BJP: -13.8%, Congress: -41.7%, AAP: -3.0%
Crowdwisdom360 Prediction: BJP Likely to end with 44%, AAP plus Congress at 52%
Phase 1 was probably a close contest with BJP in the lead as per publicly available data
BJP May have won anywhere between 40-50 seats while congress may have won 30-40 seats
The Gujarat Assembly Elections will be held in the month of December 2022. The BJP was expected to be led by CM Vijay Rupani in the 2022 Gujarat Elections under whose Chief Ministership the BJP had won the 2017 Assembly Elections. However, the central leadership brought in a change in leadership, and in the upcoming Gujarat Election BJP will be contesting under the leadership of new Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel.
Gujarat Election Dates:
- Phase 1: December 1st
- Phase 2: Today
- Results: December 8th
Gujarat Election Prediction: Who is Gaining?
- Opinion Polls: AAP
- Google Search: BJP
- Social Media Sentiments: AAP
Opinion Gujarat Poll 2022: Observation and Insights
- Who is leading in Gujarat Opinion Poll 2022?
- BJP is comfortably placed in the Polls to win the election
- BJP is also maintaining a comfortable lead on Google Search which means newer voters are looking for information about BJP more than other parties
- The Satta bazaar or betting market, which is illegal in India has Gujarat Election 2022 Prediction in favor of the ruling BJP. Congress is predicted to be second in the race despite AAP trying to make the Gujarat election fight BJP vs AAP.
- Is there any anti-incumbency against BJP?
- Negative swing of around 6% against the BJP (within the margin of error).
- Only 32% of the voters think the Govt was bad but only 42% think it was Good. 26% think it was average.
- 36% think the CM was doing a good job, but only 29% thought he was doing a bad job.
- Only 34% want a change in Government though 70% felt the Govt could do a better job. 63% believe BJP will win the election again. People are more optimistic about AAP’s chances than Congress Party’s chances.
- Unemployment is the number 1 issue but unemployment is just 1.6% according to the latest CMIE survey. Inflation is 4th major important issue, Gujarat has one of the highest inflation rates in the country at 8.2%
- How is the Opposition performing?
- Congress plus AAP is likely to win 51% of the vote. However, Congress is likely to end up with only 33% of the vote
- AAP is performing very well on vote share (15-18%) but is unable to translate into seats. BJP is mostly retaining its vote share but voter dissatisfaction appears to be high. With the division in Opposition votes, BJP is likely to win more than 75% of the seats
- In Saurashtra, AAP plus Congress are winning higher vote share than BJP but BJP is likely to win 72% of the seats
- In North Gujarat, AAP plus Congress are winning a higher vote share than BJP but BJP is likely to win nearly 2/3rds of the seats.
- In Central Gujarat too, the pattern repeats, AAP plus Congress wins more vote share than BJP but BJP is predicted to win nearly 66% of the seats.
Gujarat Opinion Poll: Latest Polls
|Average of Polls||November 29th|
|India TV Matrize|
Note: Seats of Others have not been included in the tally.
Other Polls Published on Twitter
- Folt News – BJP 68, Congress 109
- CKAV Poll – BJP 73, Congress 5, AAP 98
- Congress IT Cell, UP – BJP 60, Congress 108, AAP 1
- Times Algebra – BJP 138, Congress 40
Average of other Polls: BJP 85, Congress 60, AAP 45
|Average of Polls||November 29th|
|India TV Matrize|
Crowdwisdom360 Gujarat District Opinion Poll
Our polls have captured a completely opposite trend to mainstream polls. In the 40 seats we covered, BJP led Congress by 10 seats in 2017. In 2022, Congress leads by 6 seats. This poll was completed a month before the election.
- 2017: INC 15, BJP 25
- 2022: INC 19, BJP 13, AAP 3, Close Contest 5
Opinion Poll Gujarat 2022: Google Search Trends
Last 7 Days:
- BJP: 57% (2017: 66%)
- INC: 22% (2017: 33%)
- AAP: 21% (2017:1%)
Whose candidate list was most searched?
BJP: 55%, Congress 30%, AAP: 15%
Gujarat Election 2022: Social Media Sentiment
Last 24 hours
- BJP: -13.8% (Falling)
- Congress: -41.7% (Falling)
- AAP: -20.3% (Falling)
Gujarat Election 2022: Frequently Asked Questions
Which Party is Currently ahead in Gujarat?
The Saffron party, BJP is still the firm favorite to win the state due to the popularity of PM Modi in the state and the strong organization of the party despite ruling the state for more than 2 decades. The State continues to outperform the National average on Per capita income growth and is now gaining ranks after losing them under Modi (Yes, Gujarat lost ranks when Modi was CM)
How many MLAs are there in Gujarat?
The Gujarat Assembly has 182 MLAs. The MLAs are elected for a five-year term.
How many BJP MLAs are there in Gujarat?
BJP is currently the single largest party in Gujarat. In the last election, BJP won 99 seats but in the last five years, after winning multiple byelections, the number of BJP MLAs in Gujarat increased to 111.
What are the main issues of voters of Gujarat?
The biggest issues (as per Navbharat Times Poll) in Gujarat are Inflation (49%), Unemployment, Development, and Social conflict. Inflation is up by nearly 8%. Essentially, there is limited income growth in Gujarat, particularly so during the last 24 months, the COVID period.
Who will Win Gujarat 2022 Election?
The Gujarat election Opinion Polls have indicated a win for the ruling Bhartiya Janata Party. BJP is in a position to win more seats than it had won in the last election as per the polls.
What is the position of Aam Aadmi Party in Gujarat?
AAP is enthused by the fact it came second in the Surat Municipal Corporation Elections. on its first try is doing everything it can to portray itself as the future of Gujarat and the only party which can defeat the BJP as the Congress has been in opposition for so long. The AAP is picking momentum in Rajkot, Vadodara, Surat, and Ahmedabad In Vadodara, AAP is gaining from both BJP and Congress. In Surat and Ahmedabad, both AAP and BJP are gaining from Congress
How is Congress Performing In Gujarat?
The Congress party is still in a state of chaos and is leaderless in the state. It is unable to even inspire enthusiasm among its own workers and leaders who feel that Delhi has given up on them and thus is unable to take advantage of any anti-incumbency. Its results in the recent municipal elections showcase the sad state of the party
Is AIMIM in a position to Damage Congress?
The AIMIM too is taking large strides in Votes share of the Muslim community which is losing faith in the ability of Congress to win an election.
How Congress Lost its Support Base In Gujarat?
The Congress party came to power in 1980 and 1985 with a resounding 142 and 149 seats under the stewardship of then CM Madhavsinh Solanki under the aegis of the strategy KHAM which was based on consolidating 4 communities- Kshatriyas(UC and OBC), Harijans(SCs), Adivasis(STs) and Muslims.
But for KHAM to work, it also demanded the ignoring of the Hindu UCs and Patidars. This turned most of them away from Congress and they gradually became the unwavering core of the BJP in the state till the Patidar Agitation for Reservation in 2015.
Following communal riots in the state in 1986 due to which Madhav Sinh Solanki was forced to step down, the KHAM coalition he had created and presided over began falling apart. And thus the INC lost the election in 1990 following which it could never win an election on its own.
What strengthened BJP in Gujarat?
The Ramjanmabhoomi movement strengthened the BJP among Hindu UCs and OBCs in the state.
The INC’s base too has weakened over time as the BJP has strengthened its base among OBC Kshatriyas(Thakores and Kolis) and STs too over 20 years of power in the state.
The INC does have many OBC and Thakore leaders and many Patel leaders too, but in the 2019 LS elections, most people in these communities voted for the BJP. The lack of united leadership and charismatic leaders to enthuse cadres and convince the people still shackles it. Its most loyal voters in the state are only Muslims and SCs today.
The AAP did well in Surat thanks to Patidars who were unhappy with the BJP and hadn’t been wooed by Congress. The AAP is still trying to grow in the state and hasn’t found the caste combination to grow. Yet the Gujarat AAP Leader Gopal Italia is a Patidar
What led to rising of AAP In Gujarat?
On 21st February 2021 elections for six Municipal Corporations- Ahmedabad, Surat, Rajkot, Vadodara, Jamnagar, and Bhavnagar- were held. The election saw overall voting of 41.2%. The results of the elections were declared on 23rd February 2021.
Aam Aadmi Party has been trying to make a political breakthrough in different parts of India. However, in the last 6-7 years it has been confined to Delhi and some parts of Punjab. However, as Congress is losing its grip over most of the states, AAP is gradually trying to fill the vacuum of opposition to the BJP.
Surat Municipal Corporation was one such example. SMC has a total of 120 seats. In 2015, BJP had won 80 seats while Congress had won 36 seats. This time BJP won 93 seats while Congress failed to open its account. AAP won 27 seats in Surat.
What is the Impact of Swing Voters in Gujarat?
Bjp’s Vote share increased by 0.75 in 2017 as compared to 2012. However, Vote share did not translate into seats as BJP lost 16 seats. On the other hand, INC gained 0.85% and increased its tally by 16 seats. The majority of the Congress’s victories in 2017 were concentrated in Saurashtra and other “demographically favored” areas. This time, surveys suggest that the AAP will gain the majority of swing voters and 60% of those who now support Congress, which is expected to lose 22 seats.
Religious and Caste Composition of Gujarat Population
As per the 2011 Census, Gujarat is 88.57% Hindu, 9.67% Muslim, 1% Jain, and 0.70% Others. Gujarat is the state with the third-largest amount of Jains, after Rajasthan and M.P. in India.
Castewise Division of Population
Hindu UCs/Savarnas are 10-12 % of the state. They comprise Brahmins, Banias(2% each), Rajputs (at least 5%), and Lohanas. Then Patidars/Patels are 13-16%. They are an economically influential and powerful caste through the state. Patidars are divided into 2 main caste:- Leuvas and Kadvas.
OBCs are 40-42%. About 147 castes are on the OBC list. 20-22% of OBCs belong to 2 castes- Kolis/Thakores
STs are 15-16%. About half of all STs are Bhils. The category also includes Gavits, Pargis, and Dhodias. SCs are 7-8%.
Gujarat Opinion Poll 2022: Summary
With the election around the corner, the parties have geared up and the new entrant AAP is trying to make the Gujarat election BJP vs AAP fight. However, the new poll shows that AAP will remain a small player in the political landscape of Gujarat. BJP is set. to return to power while Congress will be a distant second as per the poll. AAP may win around 10% vote share but all that it will be doing is making BJP gain more seats.
In conclusion, BJP is set to win more seats than it had won in the last election. The latest poll shows BJP could win more seats than it had won when Narendra Modi was CM of the state.