Hawks vs Heat Prediction and Odds: NBA Play-In Tournament Showdown

Hawks vs Heat Prediction and Odds: The Miami Heat are expected to win this game as per the odds and stats.

As the NBA Play-In Tournament elimination round begins, the Atlanta Hawks are set to face the Miami Heat at FTX Arena. With both teams eager to progress to the next round, this highly anticipated matchup will put their skills and determination to the test. The Miami Heat are expected to win this game according to odds and stats, but the Atlanta Hawks are sure to put up a strong fight.

Regular Season Recap:

The Atlanta Hawks had a mixed regular season, finishing in the 8th position in the Eastern Conference with a balanced 41 wins and 41 defeats. In their last game of the regular season, the Hawks faced the Boston Celtics, ultimately losing 114-120. Throughout the season, the Hawks demonstrated strong offensive capabilities, ranking 7th in attack with an Adjusted Offensive Rating of 116.2. However, their defense lagged behind, ranking 22nd with an Adjusted Defensive Rating of 116.0.

On the other hand, the Miami Heat finished the regular season in the 7th position in the Eastern Conference, boasting 44 wins and 38 defeats. They closed out the regular season with a decisive 123-110 victory over the Orlando Magic. The Heat’s performance throughout the season was less consistent offensively, ranking 25th in attack with an Adjusted Offensive Rating of 113.2. Nonetheless, their defense was considerably stronger, ranking 8th with an Adjusted Defensive Rating of 113.4.

Hawks vs Heat Prediction: Home-Away Stats (Last 5 Games)

The Miami Heat have a clear home advantage in this matchup, having won 4 of their last 5 home games. Over the course of the season, they secured 27 out of 41 home wins, demonstrating their ability to perform well on their home court. In contrast, the Atlanta Hawks struggled in away games, managing to win only 1 of their last 5 away fixtures. The Hawks’ overall away record for the season stands at 17-24, indicating that they may have difficulty overcoming the Heat’s home advantage.

Heat vs Hawks Prediction: Offense and Defense Comparison

Offensive Advantage: Hawks

  • The Atlanta Hawks played the regular season with an average of 118.4 points per game. In shooting, they have a conversion rate of 48.3% in field goals, 35.2% in 3-pointers, and 78.6% in free throws.
  • The Miami Heat maintained a scoring rate of 109.5 points per game, the lowest among all sides. They shot 46.0% from the field and 34.4% from the 3-point line. The free throw accuracy stands at 83.1%.

Defensive Advantage: Heat

  • The Atlanta Hawks are giving away 118.1 points per game so far. They played with an average of 44.4 rebounds along with 7.1 steals and 4.9 blocks per game.
  • The Miami Heat have conceded 109.8 points per game in the current season. They maintained an average of 40.6 rebounds per game. The average number of steals per game is currently at 8.0 while the average number of blocks per game stands at 3.0.

Hawks vs Heat Odds


  • Miami Heat: -5 (-110)
  • Atlanta Hawks: +5 (-110)


  • Miami Heat: -244
  • Atlanta Hawks: +175

Win Probability:

  • Miami Heat: 69%
  • Atlanta Hawks: 31%
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Hawks vs Heat Prediction: Head-to-Head Stats

Throughout their history, the Miami Heat and the Atlanta Hawks have met a total of 134 times in the regular season of the NBA. The Miami Heat has the upper hand with 76 wins, while the Atlanta Hawks won 58 games. This historical advantage may also play a role in the upcoming matchup.

Examining the last 5 meetings between these teams, the Miami Heat have been the dominant side, winning 4 of those games, while the Hawks managed to secure only 1 victory. Their previous matchup took place in the current season on March 6, 2023, with the Miami Heat emerging victorious with a score of 130-128.

Head-to-Head: Key Highlights (Last 5 Meetings):

  • The Miami Heat hosted 3 games and won all 3 of them.
  • Average Number of Total Points scored: 228.8
  • Average Number of Points scored by the Miami Heat: 115.8
  • Average Number of Points scored by Atlanta Hawks: 113.0

Hawks vs Heat Prediction: Players to Watch Out

Miami Heat:

  1. Jimmy Butler (Small Forward) Points Per Game: 22.9 | Rebounds Per Game: 5.9 | Assists Per Game: 5.3
  2. Bam Adebayo (Center) Points Per Game: 20.6 | Rebounds Per Game: 9.3 | Steals Per Game: 1.2
  3. Tyler Herro (Point Guard) Points Per Game: 20.3 | Rebounds Per Game: 5.4 | Assists Per Game: 4.2

Atlanta Hawks:

  1. Trae Young (Point Guard) Points Per Game: 26.2 | Assists Per Game: 10.2 | Rebounds Per Game: 3.0
  2. Dejounte Murray (Shooting Guard) Points Per Game: 20.5 | Assists Per Game: 6.1 | Rebounds Per Game: 5.3
  3. De’Andre Hunter (Small Forward) Points Per Game: 15.4 | Rebounds Per Game: 4.2 | Assists Per Game: 1.4

Hawks vs Heat Winner Prediction

Based on the factors mentioned above, the Miami Heat appears to be the stronger team in this matchup. They hold the advantage in terms of home court, momentum, head-to-head history, and defense. However, the Atlanta Hawks have a stronger offense, which could help them put up a tough fight against the Heat.

The Atlanta Hawks will need their key players, such as Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, and De’Andre Hunter, to step up and perform at their best in order to challenge the Miami Heat. A strong offensive push from the Hawks could potentially disrupt the Heat’s rhythm, making this a close and exciting game.

Nonetheless, considering all the odds and stats, the Miami Heat are favored to win this game and progress to the next round of the NBA Play-In Tournament. With a win probability of 69%, the Heat will look to capitalize on their advantages and secure a victory against the Atlanta Hawks, who have a win probability of 31%.

In conclusion, while the Atlanta Hawks have a formidable offensive lineup, the overall advantage lies with the Miami Heat. Their strong defense, home-court advantage, and historical edge against the Hawks make them the likely winners of this much-anticipated showdown.