Mavericks vs Heat Prediction and Odds

Mavericks vs Heat Prediction and Odds: The Miami Heat are expected to win this game as per the bookmarkers and stats.

With only a few games remaining in the regular season, it’s almost a now-or-never situation for most teams. The Dallas Mavericks (37-40) will battle to stay alive in the competition when they meet the Miami Heat (40-37) in the upcoming NBA fixture at FTX Arena. After too many disappointing performances over the last few weeks, the Mavericks have fallen to the 11th position in the Western Conference. Dallas must find a way to make a comeback to avoid early elimination. In the last game, they faced a 108-116 defeat against the Philadelphia 76ers.

The Miami Heat will aim to avoid their fourth straight defeat when they host the Mavs in the next home matchup. It has been a below-par campaign for the Heat as well. They need to win most of the remaining fixtures to book a playoff berth. Miami is currently in the 7th position in the Eastern Conference. They are coming off a 92-101 loss to the New York Knicks in the last game.

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Mavericks vs Heat Prediction: Last 5 Games Stats

The Dallas Mavericks have won 2 of the last 5 away games.

They won against the Indiana Pacers and LA Lakers. The defeats came against the likes of the Philadelphia 76ers, Charlotte Hornets, and Memphis Grizzlies. The Mavs have won 15 out of 39 away games this season.

In the last 5 away fixtures

  • The Dallas Mavericks have scored 111.6 points per game.
  • The Dallas Mavericks have conceded 110.4 points per game.
  • Number of games that ended with a difference of 3 points or less: 1
  • Number of games that ended with a difference of 4-10 points: 3

The Miami Heat have won 4 of the last 5 home games.

Miami’s last 4 home wins came against teams like the New York Knicks, Memphis Grizzlies, Utah Jazz, and Cleveland Cavaliers. They lost only one game against the Brooklyn Nets. The Heat have a home record of 25-14 in the current season.

In the last 5 home fixtures

  • The Miami Heat have scored 120.6 points per game.
  • The Miami Heat have conceded 119.6 points per game.
  • Number of games that ended with a difference of 3 points or less: 1
  • Number of games that ended with a difference of 4-10 points: 3

None of the sides has the winning momentum. But the home advantage will be on the side of the Miami Heat.

Mavericks vs Heat Prediction: Attack and Defense Analysis


The Dallas Mavericks are playing with an average of 113.8 points per game so far. In shooting, they attained a success rate of 47.4% in field goals, 37.2% in 3-pointers, and 75.7% in free throws. The Mavs are the 6th highest-ranked side in the attack having an Adjusted Offensive Rating of 116.4.

The Miami Heat have kept their scoring rate at 108.7 points per game, the lowest among all sides. They shot 45.6% from the field and 34.1% from the 3-point line. The free throw accuracy stands at 83.2%. Miami is the 6th lowest-ranked side in the attack. They have an Adjusted Offensive Rating of 112.5.

The Dallas Mavericks have a more powerful attack than the Miami Heat.


The Dallas Mavericks have been conceding 113.3 points per game as of now. They maintained an average of 38.6 rebounds along with 6.4 steals and 3.7 blocks per game. The Mavs are the 23rd-ranked side in the defense having an Adjusted Defensive Rating of 116.3.

The Miami Heat are giving away 109.8 points per game this season. They played with an average of 40.6 rebounds per game. The average number of steals and the average number of blocks per game are currently at 8.0 and 3.0 respectively. With an Adjusted Defensive Rating of 113.4, the Heat rank 9 in the defense.

The Miami Heat have the upper hand in the defense.

Heat vs Mavericks Prediction: Odds


  • Miami Heat: -1 (-115)
  • Dallas Mavericks: +1(-105)


  • Miami Heat: -118
  • Dallas Mavericks: -102

Win Probability

  • Miami Heat: 58%
  • Dallas Mavericks: 42%
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Mavericks vs Heat Prediction: Last Game Analysis

Can the Mavs target an impactful winning streak?

The Dallas Mavericks need to bring out their best in the remaining games to change their fortunes. They faced another away loss in the last fixture against the Philadelphia 76ers. The absence of Nikola Jokic was a significant disadvantage for the Mavs. They were decent at shooting. Dallas shot 45.8% from the field and 39.1% from the 3-point line. They were outrebounded 43-40 by the 76ers. 

Luka Doncic tried his best to keep his side’s chances alive. He finished with 24 points, 10 rebounds, and 8 assists. Kyrie Irving looked good as well and contributed 23 points with 6 rebounds and 5 assists.

Will the Heat make a comeback?

The Miami Heat faced their third consecutive defeat by losing to the New York Knicks in the last game. It was a close contest for the first three quarters. The Knicks were ahead by just 1 point through the last quarter before going for a 9-0 surge led by Grimes and Hart. This resulted in a good 10-point lead for the Knicks with 4:17 remaining. It almost became impossible for the Heat to fight back. Miami lost 35-47 on rebounds. They were also outscored 14-9 by New York in the fast break points.

Gabe Vincent scored the most points for Miami. He added 21 points with 3 rebounds and 3 assists. Tyler Herro scored 16 points with 2 rebounds.

Heat vs Mavericks Prediction: Head-to-Head Stats

There have been 72 regular season games between these two sides in the NBA. The Miami Heat are slightly ahead with 37 wins, while the Dallas Mavericks won 35 games.

If we check out the last 5 matchups, 3 games were won by the Mavs and 2 by the Heat. The previous clash took place in the current season on 20 January 2023. The Dallas Mavericks won that game with a score of 115-90.

Head-to-Head Key Highlights (Last 5 Meetings)

  • The Miami Heat hosted 2 games and both of them were won by the Dallas Mavericks.
  • Average Number of Total Points scored: 212.4
  • Average Number of Points scored by the Miami Heat: 102.0
  • Average Number of Points scored by the Dallas Mavericks: 110.4

Heat vs Mavericks Prediction: Players to Watch Out

Miami Heat

Jimmy Butler (Small Forward)

Points Per Game: 22.6 | Rebounds Per Game: 5.9 | Assists Per Game: 5.1

Bam Adebayo (Center)

Points Per Game: 20.7 | Rebounds Per Game: 9.3 | Steals Per Game: 1.2

Adebayo’s status is questionable to play this game.

Tyler Herro (Point Guard)

Points Per Game: 20.4 | Rebounds Per Game: 5.5 | Assists Per Game: 4.2

Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic (Point Guard)

Points Per Game: 32.8 | Rebounds Per Game: 8.7 | Assists Per Game: 8.1

Kyrie Irving (Point Guard)

Points Per Game: 26.1 | Assists Per Game: 5.9 | Steals Per Game: 1.2

Christian Wood (Forward)

Points Per Game: 16.8 | Rebounds Per Game: 7.4 | Blocks Per Game: 1.0

Mavericks vs Heat Winner Prediction

  • Home Advantage: Heat
  • Offensive Advantage: Mavericks
  • Defensive Advantage: Heat
  • Overall: Heat to win

The Dallas Mavericks need to find some way to win this matchup to stay in contention for the next round. On the other hand, the Miami Heat will be desperate to end their losing streak. Fans can expect a riveting contest between the two sides. The odds are favoring the Heat to win this matchup.