2021 London Mayoral Election: Khan and Bailey in neck-neck fight
On 6th May 2021, London voted to elect its new mayor. The mayoral election was supposed to be held in May 2020 however, due to Coronavirus pandemic, the election got postponed to 6th May 2021.
Currently, Labour’s Sadiq Khan is the mayor of London and in June 2018 he had announced that he will be running for re-election. He then automatically became the Labour’s candidate for the upcoming 2021 London Mayoral election.
The London Mayoral election opinion polls indicated an easy win for Sadiq Khan. However, as the counting began, the election seems to be closer than expected.
Initially with start of counting Sadiq Khan opened with lead of almost 25,000 votes over Shaun Bailey. However, things started changing by counting proceeded. Seven of 14 City Hall’s constituencies have declared their result and as of now Sadiq Khan is leading on 487,104 first preference votes while Shaun Bailey received 462,837 first preference votes. Khan maintain a lead of 24,267 votes over Bailey.
The counting is set to resume at 8am GMT today. Due to Covid precautions, final result can be expected by Sunday.
2021 London Mayoral Election Opinion Poll: Latest News
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Sian Berry, the Green Party candidate for upcoming London Mayoral Election wants to change the unfair fare zones in the capital which have seen bus, tram and Tube fares rise for Croydon commuters from Zones 5 and 6 by nearly £400 in five years. A single journey on the Croydon trams and buses has gone up from £1.50 to £1.55.
2021 London Mayoral Election Opinion Polls: What does the Betting Market Say about upcoming London Mayoral election?
2021 London Mayoral Election Opinion Polls: Polls Indicate an Easy Win for Sadiq Khan
The latest 2021 London Mayoral election opinion poll conducted by Opinium for Evening Standard shows landslide win for Sadiq Khan. As per the poll Sadiq Khan may become the first London Mayor to be elected by First Preference votes and need of including 2nd preference votes may not even arise. Polls show Sadiq Khan leads over Tory candidate Shaun Bailey by 53% to 28% on first preference votes.
New Savanta ComRes survey shows Tory’s Shaun Bailey narrowing gap with Labour’s Sadiq Khan. The poll however, shows a win a for current Mayor Sadiq Khan.
As per the poll, Khan may re-capture City Hall in second preference voting instead of first which most of the previous polls indicated. The polls show, Sadiq Khan winning 41% of first preference votes, Shaun Bailey may win 28% of first preference votes and Luisa Porritt, Liberal Democrats may win 8% of votes.
A new London Mayoral Election Opinion Poll carried out for Mile End Institute at Queen Mary University of London, Sadiq Khan leads his nearest rival, Shaun Bailey, by 47 per cent to 26 per cent. As per the Sadiq Khan has support amongst:
- Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) Londoners, with 63 per cent
- White voters with 37%
- 18-25 year olds with 65%
- Over 65% with 22% support.
Sadiq Khan is heading for a landslide as per the Evening Standard Poll. The polls shows that Khan may become the first Mayoral winner to win the election without any need for second preference votes. Mr Khan leads his main rival, Tory candidate Shaun Bailey, by 53 per cent to 28 per cent on first preferences as per the polls.
As per Redfield & Wilton Strategies, the current London Mayor Sadiq Khan has maintained a huge lead against his nearest challenger. As per the polls, 51 per cent of London voters intend to give their first preference vote to the incumbent Labour Mayor. If this happens, it will be the first time when a London Mayor will be elected without any need for second preference votes.
London Mayoral Election Poll show the current Mayor of London Sadiq ahead of Conservative candidate Shaun Biley by 21-point. The poll was conducted by Redfield & Wilton Survey. These were the findings of the polls as for the first preference votes: (The change in vote share is as compared to last survey released between 15-17 October. The latest poll is from survey done between 13-14 January)
Sadiq Khan (Labour) 49% (-1)
Shaun Bailey (Conservative) 28% (–)
Luisa Porritt (Liberal Democrat) 10% (–)
Sian Berry (Green Party) 9% (-1)
Peter Gammons (UKIP) 2% (NEW)
Other 3% (+1)
Here are the results of other opinion polls as shared on Wikipedia:
2021 London Mayoral Election Opinion Poll: What happened in last election?
Last Election for electing Mayor of London was held on 5th May 2016. In first round of voting none of the candidate could cross the mark of 50% in order to get elected as mayor. Sadiq Khan represented Labour, Zac Goldsmith was the Conservative candidate and for Sian Berry represented the Green Party.
A total of 12 candidates were in fray of which only 3 candidates, Sadiq Khan, Zac Goldsmith and Sian Berry could cross the threshold of 5% votes in first round. In first round, Khan secured 44.2% vote share, Goldsmith got 35% vote share and Sian Berry got 5.8% vote share, Berry got eliminated in 2nd round and the final result was Khan 56.8% vote share and Goldsmith 43.2% vote share.
Sadiq Khan became the second Labour Party mayor of London after Livingstone and first Muslim of European Union Capital City.
2021 London Mayoral Election Opinion Poll: Who are the candidates?
Like the last London mayoral, even this year there are number of candidates who are seeking votes for Mayor of London. Here are the candidates from the major political parties:
What are the rules followed for electing Mayor of London?
Supplementary voting system is followed for the election of London’s mayor which means a voter is required to express their 1st and 2nd preference for the post of London mayor when they cast their votes.
If a candidates win the 50% of 1st preference of votes, the candidates get elected. If none of the candidate wins 50% vote share, 2nd round of counting is done. In this round, 2nd preference votes is considered keeping the 1st preference votes intact.
In this round, only top two candidates are retained while rest are eliminated. Votes of those voters whose 1st and 2nd preference candidates gets eliminated are not considered. Votes of voters whose 1st preference candidate got eliminated but 2nd preference candidate makes it to 2nd round are considered and added to 1st preference votes.
Any candidate among the two winning over 50% vote share is then elected as Mayor.
2021 London Mayoral Election Opinion Polls: Important Dates
Publication of notice of election
Monday 22 March 2021
Deadline for delivery of nomination papers
4pm on Tuesday 30 March 2021
Deadline for withdrawals of nomination
4pm on Tuesday 30 March 2021
Publication of first interim election notice of alteration
Tuesday 30 March 2021
Publication of statement of persons (and parties) nominated
Not later than 4pm on Thursday 1 April 2021
Deadline for receiving applications for registration
Monday 19 April 2021
Deadline for new postal vote applications and for changes to existing postal or proxy votes
5pm on Tuesday 20 April 2021
Deadline for receiving new applications to vote by proxy (not postal proxy or emergency proxies)
5pm on Tuesday 27 April 2021
Publication of second interim election notice of alteration
Between Wednesday 31 March and Tuesday 27 April 2021 (inclusive)
Publication of notice of poll
Not later than Tuesday 27 April 2021
Publication of final election notice of alteration
Wednesday 28 April 2021
7am to 10pm on Thursday 6 May 2021
2021 London Mayoral Election Opinion Poll: Predicted Winner
The latest London Mayoral election opinion polls show return of Sadiq Khan as Mayor of London once again. The polls show he may win by a record margin in the upcoming election.