New Quebec Election Polls 2022: CAQ will Win BUT Legault’s party is losing Momentum
| Quebec Election Polls 2022: The incumbent Coalition Avenir Quebec is set to return to power as per the latest Quebec Election Polls. Latest Quebec Election Polls : CAQ: 41.8%, Liberals: 16.5%, Conservatives: 16.7% QS: 13.3%, PQ: 8.9% Projected Seats: CAQ: 100, Liberals:17, Conservatives: 0, QS: 7, PQ: 1 seat Google Search Share (7 Days Average): CAQ: 36%, Liberals: 9%, Conservative: 14% and QS: 41%. Social Media Sentiment (7 Days Average) CAQ: -31.1%, PLQ: -9.7%, PCQ: -16.0% and QS: -35.4%. CrowdwisdomLive Quebec Election 2022 Predictions: CAQ is likely to underperform the current opinion polls. Conservatives are likely to finish second. |
When is the Quebec Election?
Quebec will once again vote to elect the members of the National Assembly of Quebec. The election is scheduled for October 3rd.
The incumbent party Coalition Avenir Quebec led by François Legault registered a massive win in the last election. With over 37% vote share, they won 74 of the 125 seats. Currently, they have 76 seats in the National Assembly.
*Note: 2018 was the first time Coalition Avenir Quebec won a provincial election in Quebec.
Table of Contents
Quebec Election 2022 Predictions
| Who is Winning? | Who is Gaining? | |
| Polls | CAQ | PCQ |
| Google Search | CAQ | PCQ |
| Social Media Sentiment | PCQ | PLQ |
Quebec Election Polls 2022: Insights and Observations
The CAQ is all set to return to power as they sustain their vote share while a Conservative surge is fragmenting the opposition swinging numerous marginal seats in favor of CAQ. Here are a few observations and Insights.
- CAQ is projected to win 40% vote share while Conservatives may win a higher vote share compared to the Liberals. However, an analysis of Google search and Polling data is predicting a vote share loss for CAQ and Quebec Solidaire.
- In the Mainstreet polls, CAQ has fallen from 41.8% to 38.8% in one week. Conservatives have risen from 17.8% to 19.5% in one week.
- The Conservative performance in Quebec is truly mindboggling. The PCQ leads Liberals amongst 18-34-year-olds by 15% points.
- As a consequence, the once-powerful Liberal party in Quebec may lose its support base in both Montreal and Laval. The rise of the Conservatives in Montreal is directly hurting the Liberals and is benefitting the CAQ. As per the latest polls, of the 6 seats in Laval, CAQ may win 5 and Liberals may win only 1. In 2018 it was 5 for PLQ in Laval.
- Montreal has always been a strong base for the Liberals. In 2018, Liberals won 19, CAQ won 2 and 6 seats were won by the QS. In 2022, Liberals are projected to win about 12-13 seats in Montreal. CAQ or QS may emerge victorious in the rest.
- Despite PCQ in a position of winning a 20% vote share, they are unlikely to win any seats. However, they will be harming PLQ in their traditional strongholds and indirectly helping CAQ win more seats.
- Overall, around 50% of the Quebecers approve of the working of Francois Legault. Around 46% are not satisfied with the work of the incumbent Premier. This will not matter in the end as the opposition is completely fragmented. Read about Francois Legault and His approval ratings
- Healthcare, housing, and taxes remain the most important issue of the election with healthcare being the priority. More women consider healthcare to be the topmost priority while for men it is taxes and housing.
- Talking about voters among non-francophones is an advantage for Liberals with CAQ being the least favorite.
Quebec Election Polls: Latest Polls
The average of the three latest polls has CAQ leading over Liberals by 24%. If the polls remain to be true, CAQ is set to return to power once again.
| Average of Polls | September 26th |
| CAQ | 41.8%(2018-37.4%) |
| PCQ | 16.7% (1.5%) |
| PLQ | 16.5% (24.8%) |
| QS | 13.3% (8.5%) |
| PQ | 8.9% (17.1%) |
| Mainstreet | September 26th |
| CAQ | 43.5% |
| Conservatives | 19.1% |
| Liberals | 15.5% |
| QS | 11.0% |
| Parti Quebecois | 7.8% |
| Research Co | September 21st |
| CAQ | 40.0% |
| Conservatives | 18.0% |
| Liberals | 17.0% |
| QS | 14.0% |
| PQ | 10.0% |
| Leger | August 26th |
| CAQ | 42% |
| Conservatives | 13% |
| Liberals | 17% |
| QS | 15% |
| Parti Quebecois | 9% |
Voteshare Prediction for Montreal By Mainstreet Research
- PLQ: 43.2%
- CAQ: 28.7%
- PQ: 8.8%
- PCQ: 8.7%
- QS: 5.5%
- Others: 5.1%
Liberals are on the path of holding on to their stronghold but PCQ with around a 9% vote share may damage PLQ in terms of seats.
In the last election, PCQ had no presence in Montreal.
Quebec Election 2022 Platforms
The campaign for the Quebec Election 2022 has just started with the Conservative party being the first to kick off the campaign for the upcoming Quebec election. However, even before the official campaign started, the political parties have already made a number of poll promises. Here are a few poll promises made by two important parties of Quebec:
Coalition Avenir Quebec
- Build thousands of new social and affordable housing units if re-elected.
- Spend $1.4 billion over five years to convert more than 56,000 unsubsidized daycare spots into subsidized spaces.
- Constitute a new health agency.
- Tax cuts and reduce the gap between the personal income tax burden of Quebecers versus the rest of North America and Canada.
- CAQ promises $40 Million for Quebec’s Religious Heritage
- CAQ promises to boost Quebec City’s population.
PLQ
- Family doctor for all Quebec patients
- PLQ promises to boost ECO Projects. ECO Projects means a combination of economy and ecology.
- Supporting the development of industrial green hydrogen power projects
- Finance the installation of 20 THE LIBERAL PLAYBOOK | ECO PROJECT water meters in all non-residential buildings to reduce consumption and establish voluntary programs for the agricultural sector.
- Introduce a seniors’ benefit of $2,000 per year to support each person aged 70 and up who wants to remain in their own home
- Implementing all the recommendations from the Special Commission on Children’s Rights and Youth Protection
- Eliminating the welcome tax on the purchase of a first property
- Increase the number of teachers by facilitating access to qualifying master’s degrees.
- Doubling the income tax exemption for those aged 65 and up by increasing the amount to $30,000.
Quebec Election Polls 2022: Google Search Analysis
Candidate Wise (Last 7 Days)
Francois Legault: 27%
Dominique Anglade: 30%
Gabriel Dubois: 20%
Eric Duhaime: 23%
Quebec Election Polls: Party wise (Last 7 Days)
CAQ: 36% (41% in 2018)
Liberals: 9% (9% in 2018)
QS: 41% (45% in 2018)
Conservative: 14% (4% in 2018)
Quebec Election 2022: Social media Sentiments
Party
- CAQ: -31.1%
- PLQ: -9.7%
- PCQ: -16.0%
- QS: -35.4%
Leaders
- Francois Legault: -30.4%
- Dominique Anglade: -2.8%
- Gabriel Dubois: -15%
- Eric Duhaime: -26%
Quebec Election 2022 Polls: What are the Chances of Each Political Party?
CAQ: Since the win in the 2018 election, Francois Legault and his party Coalition Avenir Quebec has been leading in all the polls and the popularity of CAQ has been surging all over Quebec except in Montreal where they have underperformed even in the last election.
PLQ: The Liberals under Dominique Anglade are not in the position to challenge the might of CAQ as of now. The 2018 election saw Liberals decline from 68 seats to 31. They were able to hold on to their base only in Montreal and 2022 may be worse if they fail to convince voters outside Montreal.
PQ: Party Quebecois which has been in power and also been the main opposition party has been on a decline since 2018. The party managed to win 10 seats with around 18% vote share in 2018 and now the polls have predicted them to be winning less than 10% of total votes which may result in lesser seats compared to 2018.
PCQ: The Conservatives have been nowhere in the scene in the 2018 election but the pandemic has helped them increase their vote base in Quebec. Their anti-lockdown policy is popular among a certain section go the Quebecers. Led by Eric Duhaime, the Conservative party is set to gain a lot, the latest poll gives it over 20% vote share. In 2018 the party was completely irrelevant. However, it may not be enough for it to come to power.
Read: Justin Trudeau Approval Rating
Quebec Election Polls: Latest video
Quebec Election 2022: Latest Tweets
Quebec Election Polls: What happened in the last elections?
The last Quebec General election was held in the year 2018. CAQ won the elections under the leadership of Francois Legault. CAQ won 74 seats in the Quebec assembly while the Liberals under Philippe Couillard won just 31 seats, 37 seats less than their previous tally.
Quebec Election 2022 Polls: Demographics
Quebec has an approximately 8.18 million population which makes it the second-most populous province in Canada. Montreal is the most popular city in Quebec.
The racial composition of Quebec is 87% white and 11% minority groups. There are a large number of Indians situated here. Among Mohawk, Indian reserves are the largest among all.
Quebec is the only city in Canada where the majority of the population speak the French language. About 7 million Canadians are descended from the original 2,600 colonists. During the 17th to mid-18th century, numerous French migrated to Canada.
Quebec has the highest number of international adoptions in Canada with 42% of all international adoptions carried out in the province.
Quebec has a smaller number of visible minority groups than British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario, and Manitoba, and most visible minorities live in the Montreal metropolitan area.
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