New Quebec Election Polls 2022: CAQ will Win BUT Legault’s party is losing Momentum

New Quebec Election Polls 2022: CAQ will Win BUT Legault’s party is losing Momentum

Quebec Election Polls 2022: The incumbent Coalition Avenir Quebec is set to return to power as per the latest Quebec Election Polls. But in the final week, QS is gaining momentum

Latest Quebec Election Polls: CAQ: 37.4%, QS: 16.8%, Liberals: 15.9%, Conservatives: 14.0%, PQ: 12.6%.

Projected Seats: CAQ: 98, Liberals:19, Conservatives: 0, QS: 7, PQ: 1 seat.

Google Search Share (7 Days Average): CAQ: 24%, Liberals: 9%, Conservatives: 9%, and QS: 39%. PQ: 19%

Social Media Sentiment (7 Days Average): CAQ: -32.6%, Liberals: -10.1%, Conservatives: -21.9% and QS: -33.2%, PQ: -5.4%.

CrowdwisdomLive Quebec Election 2022 Predictions: CAQ will win and also gain seats. QS is likely to finish second on vote share while the Liberals are expected to finish second on seats won.


Quebec will once again vote to elect the members of the National Assembly of Quebec.

Quebec Election 2022 Date: October 3rd, 2022

The incumbent party Coalition Avenir Quebec led by François Legault registered a massive win in the last election. With over 37% vote share, they won 74 of the 125 seats. Currently, they have 76 seats in the National Assembly.

*Note: 2018 was the first time Coalition Avenir Quebec won a provincial election in Quebec.

Quebec Election 2022 Predictions

Number 1Who is Gaining?
PollsCAQPLQ
Google SearchQSPCQ
Social Media SentimentPQQS

Quebec Election Polls 2022: Observations and Insights

Which Party is leading in Quebec?

CAQ will win the Quebec Election 2022 by a huge margin. CAQ is projected to win 37% vote share while Québec solidaire is predicted to finish at second place (at the moment) with 17.2% of the vote. The Conservatives may gain the most share rising from 1.5% to nearly 15%.

Why is CAQ leading in Quebec?

57% of voters approve of the job done by Francois Legault. CAQ and Legault are outperforming among those who are over 35 years of age. The biggest issue by a wide margin in this election according to voters is Healthcare. Climate change and taxes come are next.

CAQ continues to dominate amongst voters from households with < $50,000 income leading the Liberals by 35% points. Even though those making less than $50,000 make up 40% of Quebec’s population, CAQ is predicted to 50% of its vote from this group alone. When laid out much more simply, CAQ performs well amongst older women from households that make less than $50,000 a year.

The Opposition is completely fragmented further by the Conservative party surge in the Polls. Read about Francois Legault and His approval ratings.

What are the latest polls saying about Quebec Election 2022?

CAQ is unmistakably losing momentum. The latest Leger poll shows CAQ has lost 5% over the last 30 days. Most of this is moving to QS and PQ. Is it due to the Radio Canada debate?

QS is slowly but steadily gaining share across most polls. QS appears to be gaining the most amongst young voters (18-34 years).

The Conservative momentum has also stalled probably because some voters may think that their vote may actually benefit CAQ. Duhaime realized this 3 days ago and went on to claim that results claiming the Conservatives won’t win a single seat as a ‘distortion of the century

Why is Québec Solidaire Gaining in recent polls?

Since the very beginning, Québec Solidaire has polled below CAQ, PCQ, and PLQ but the recent poll by EKOS gave QS over 20% vote share and predicted it to emerge as the main opposition party. The reason behind the rise of QS is the downfall of Liberals who have not been able to provide a better opposition leader against Francois Legault.

The poll shows that the QS spokesperson Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois is highly popular. The majority of Quebecers want to see him as an opposition leader as they believe he would make a good opposition leader.

Who is leading in Montreal?
  • PLQ: 23.7%
  • CAQ: 36.8%
  • PQ: 10.9%
  • PCQ: 15.1%
  • QS: 10.4%
  • Others: 5.1%

Liberals have lost their once dominant position in Montreal with the Conservatives likely to win about 15% of the vote.

How are the Conservatives performing in Quebec?

The Conservative performance in Quebec is truly mindboggling. The PCQ leads Liberals amongst 18-34-year-olds by 13% points. The Conservatives are also quite competitive vs CAQ amongst those who are under 50 years of age. The Conservatives are struggling amongst women and those older than 65. Despite PCQ in a position of winning a 15-20% vote share, they are unlikely to win any seats.

The rise of the Conservative Party is directly benefitting the ruling CAQ as much of the vote gain comes from rivals of the CAQ – PLQ and PQ.

Liberals vs Conservatives in Quebec (Google Search)

  • 2019 – Liberals 83%, Conservatives 17%
  • 2020 – Liberals 80%, Conservatives 20%
  • 2021 – Liberals 57%, Conservatives 43%
  • 2022 – Liberals 43%, Conservatives 57%
What is Hurting Liberals in Quebec?

The Liberals in Quebec were once the most dominant force and they have been in the power for a couple of terms in Quebec. However, things have changed and now PLQ is fighting for its existence even in its strongholds.

Quebec is highly a French-speaking province with nearly 80% of the population being Francophones. Only around 14% are English speaking population in Quebec. The English-speaking population is mostly concentrated in the Montreal region. Montreal has been a stronghold of Liberal and the reason being the concentration of the English-speaking people.

However, things have changed rapidly. Recently Liberals after supporting Bill 96 initially took a step back later, this move of the PLQ has hurt the Francophones more. Bill 96 bolsters French-language regulations. Moreover, the changing demographic of the region has become another reason which has been hurting the Liberals more.

Against CAQ there is anger but PLQ failed to cash on it. Several controversial bills have been passed by CAQ but PLQ failed to communicate with the voters effectively. Bills like Bill 21 which prohibits state employees like teachers from wearing religious clothing on the job, Bill 96 which talks in favor of the French language but has some controversial sections like shielding it from court challenges, the six-month rule for immigrants, and also Bill 40 which abolished school boards.

The PLQ leadership has failed to grow connections with voters.

Who is leading among Non-Francophone Voters?

Talking about voters among non-francophones is an advantage for Liberals with CAQ being the least favorite.

To read a Google Translated French Version of this article, click here

Le débat des enjeux de la région de Québec

YouTube video

Quebec Election Polls: Latest Polls

Average of PollsOctober 1st
CAQ37.4%(2018-37.4%)
PCQ14.0% (1.5%)
PLQ15.9% (24.8%)
QS16.8% (16.1%)
PQ12.6% (17.1%)
MainstreetSeptember 29th
CAQ40.3%
Conservatives14.9%
Liberals17.7%
QS12.5%
Parti Quebecois12.9%
LegerSeptember 25th
CAQ37%(-5% vs August)
Conservatives15.0% (+2%)
Liberals16.0% (-1%)
QS17.0% (+2%)
PQ10.0% (+1%)
EKOSSeptember 23rd
CAQ35%
Conservatives12%
Liberals14%
QS21%
Parti Quebecois15%

Quebec Election Polls 2022: Google Search Analysis

Quebec Election Polls: Party-wise (Last 7 Days)

  • CAQ: 24% (34% in 2018)
  • Liberals: 9% (7% in 2018)
  • QS: 39% (39% in 2018)
  • Conservative: 9% (5% in 2018)
  • Parti Quebec: 19%(15% in 2018)

Party Leader Wise (Last 7 Days)

  • Francois Legault (CAQ): 25%
  • Dominique Anglade (PLQ): 20%
  • Gabriel Dubois (QS): 15%
  • Eric Duhaime (PCQ): 25%
  • Paul St-Pierre Plamondon (PQ): 14%

Quebec Election 2022: Social media Sentiments

Party

  • CAQ: -32.6%
  • PLQ: -10.1%
  • PCQ: -21.9%
  • QS: -33.2%
  • PQ: -5.4%

Leaders

  • Legault (CAQ): -41.1%
  • Anglade (PLQ): -15.6%
  • Dubois (QS): -19.3%
  • Duhaime (PCQ): -23.6%
  • Plamondon (PQ): +21.5%

If you want to skip reading Party Platforms (below), click here to read about the chances of each political party

Quebec Election 2022 Platforms

Here is a summary of the official platforms of various parties.

Coalition Avenir Quebec

  1. Build thousands of new social and affordable housing units if re-elected.
  2. Spend $1.4 billion over five years to convert more than 56,000 unsubsidized daycare spots into subsidized spaces.
  3. Constitute a new health agency.
  4. Tax cuts, reduce the gap between the personal income tax burden of Quebecers versus the rest of North America and Canada.
  5. CAQ promises $40 Million for Quebec’s Religious Heritage
  6. CAQ promises to boost Quebec City’s population.

PLQ

  1. Family doctor for all Quebec patients
  2. PLQ promises to boost ECO Projects. ECO Projects means a combination of economy and ecology.
  3. Supporting the development of industrial green hydrogen power projects
  4. Finance the installation of 20 THE LIBERAL PLAYBOOK | ECO PROJECT water meters in all non-residential buildings to reduce consumption and establish voluntary programs for the agricultural sector.
  5. Introduce a seniors’ benefit of $2,000 per year to support each person aged 70 and up who wants to remain in their own home
  6. Implementing all the recommendations from the Special Commission on Children’s Rights and Youth Protection
  7. Eliminating the welcome tax on the purchase of a first property
  8. Increase the number of teachers by facilitating access to qualifying master’s degrees.
  9. Doubling the income tax exemption for those aged 65 and up by increasing the amount to $30,000.

Québec Solidaire

  1. Local Healthcare with CLSCs open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. QS promised to invest more in prevention.
  2. QS promised to stop raising the electricity bill, introduce dental insurance and cut the public travel cost to half.
  3. QS election platform includes affordable and comfortable housing for the people of Quebec.
  4. QS also promises to solve the issue of the shortage of places in CPE.
  5. For the people living in the Montreal Metropolitan area, QS promises to provide ecological and practical transportation to get around.
  6. Québec solidaire will deliver 50,000 modern and ecological social housing units in all regions of Québec.
  7. Québec solidaire will establish a free access program to all contraceptive methods, without exception.

Parti conservateur du Québec

  1. PCQ promises to Reform Public Healthcare. It promises to digitize the healthcare system and increase the supply of healthcare.
  2. Making public transport free in Quebec City and progressive electrification of transport.
  3. In the field of housing, PCQ promises to help low-income tenants through a rent setting method that benefits both owner and the tenants.
  4. To provide relief to the Quebecers from the growing expense, PCQ promises to lower gasoline taxes. It also promises to end taxes on second-hand goods.
  5. To assist all families with childcare, PCQ promises an allowance of $200 per week, per child, for parents who do not have access to CPEs or who wish to use a different service.

Parti Québécois

  1. PQ promises to provide more robust health care transfers to Quebec. Also, create Federal tax credit for the caregivers.
  2. To protect the environment Parti Quebecois promises to meet the Paris agreement targets, which include cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 30% below 2005 levels by 2030.
  3. Introduce a tax credit for recent graduates and immigrants who accept work in rural areas of Quebec

Quebec Election 2022 Polls: What are the Chances of Each Political Party?

CAQ: Since the win in the 2018 election, Francois Legault and his party Coalition Avenir Quebec has been leading in all the polls and the popularity of CAQ has been surging all over Quebec except in Montreal where they have underperformed even in the last election.

PLQ: The Liberals under Dominique Anglade are not in the position to challenge the might of CAQ as of now. The 2018 election saw Liberals decline from 68 seats to 31. They were able to hold on to their base only in Montreal and 2022 may be worse if they fail to convince voters outside Montreal.

PQ: Party Quebecois which has been in power and also been the main opposition party has been on a decline since 2018. The party managed to win 10 seats with around 18% vote share in 2018 and now the polls have predicted them to be winning less than 10% of total votes which may result in lesser seats compared to 2018.

PCQ: The Conservatives have been nowhere in the scene in the 2018 election but the pandemic has helped them increase their vote base in Quebec. Their anti-lockdown policy is popular among a certain section go the Quebecers. Led by Eric Duhaime, the Conservative party is set to gain a lot, the latest poll gives it over 20% vote share. In 2018 the party was completely irrelevant. However, it may not be enough for it to come to power.

Read: Justin Trudeau Approval Rating

Quebec Election Polls: Latest video

YouTube video

Quebec Election 2022: Latest Tweets

Quebec Election 2022: Latest News

  1. Quebec election, Sept. 30: African-Canadians feel like ‘second-class citizens’ in wake of Legault’s immigration comments, groups say
  2. Quebec election: CAQ leader defends millions to U.S. consulting firm during pandemic
  3. Quebec party leaders spread out for final weekend of election
  4. Indigenous issues take back seat in Quebec election as campaign winds down

Quebec Election Polls: What happened in the last elections?

The last Quebec General election was held in the year 2018. CAQ won the elections under the leadership of Francois Legault. CAQ won 74 seats in the Quebec assembly while the Liberals under Philippe Couillard won just 31 seats, 37 seats less than their previous tally.

Quebec Election 2022 Polls: Demographics

  • Quebec has a population of 8.2 million population which makes it the second-most populous province in Canada. Montreal is the largest city in Quebec. Quebec City is the only city in Canada where the majority of the population speak the French language
  • The racial composition of Quebec is 87% white and 11% minority groups. Quebec has a smaller number of visible minority groups than British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario, and Manitoba, and most visible minorities live in the Montreal metropolitan area.
  • Quebec has the highest number of international adoptions in Canada with 42% of all international adoptions carried out in the province.
Quebec Election Polls 2022

Read also 2022 Ontario Polls