4 Reasons why BJP should not fight alone in Bihar
Bihar elections are likely to be held in October this year. This is of course assuming we have greater control over the COVID situation. One big question is, should BJP abandon and contest on their own just like 2014 when they won 39% of the votes in Bihar
Here are 4 reasons why BJP should not contest on its own
a. Nitish is not a weak candidate: Nitish enjoys 75% satisfaction ratings in the State (ABP January 2020). This is even higher than 2015 and there is no reason for his 10-15% voters to ditch him and vote for BJP
b. Lack of Strong CM Candidate from BJP: BJP has relied so much on Nitish’s charisma that while they have competent leaders, no one has the kind of broad appeal that Nitish brings to the table
c. BJP Voting base is weaker than 2014: With Nitish and Khushwaha already out of the picture, BJP will operate with a narrower base than even 2014. A variety of scenarios lead us to end up with BJP+LJP winning between 32 to 35% of the votes, almost similar to the new UPA alliance. Of course BJP will try to get back some of its old alliance partners but these partners will be more open to this only if they know BJP will win for sure. Defecting to BJP after the election may be more valuable.
4. Funding: Unlike the previous elections across the Country, BJP will have not have a big funding advantage due to the economic crisis. This will give local and independent candidates a much better chance in the election likely hurting the BJP the most as we saw in 2015 Bihar election
Overall, it is quite a bad idea this year for BJP to contest Bihar on own. The alliance has been working well and instead BJP may be better off replacing Nitish with their own candidate after the election instead of messing up their chances before the election.