5.5 lakh cases in Delhi? Here is why Manish Sisodia is wrong!

Delhi’s Deputy CM Manish Sisodia predicts that 5.5 lakh dilliwalas will be infected by end of July. Here is why we think this won’t happen

• Firstly, applying the current doubling rate of 14 days, the prediction comes to 4.1 lakhs and not 5.5 lakhs
• The prediction of 5.5 lakhs comes in only when we take 12 days for doubling. Let us look Delhi’s doubling rate so far (below). This comes closer to 13 days which is about 4.8 lakhs by July 31st, far lesser than predicted by Manish Sisodia
  • 15000 to 30000: 14 days
  • 14000 to 28000: 12 days
  • 13000 to 26000: 13 days
  • 12000 to 24000: 12 days
  • 11000 to 22000: 13 days
• Delhi has 30000 cases currently. While the city should surely prepare for the worst case scenario, the better alternative is a lockdown again (even if moderate) in July to reduce the doubling rate. Delhi’s biggest issue is not beds, it is doctors and healthcare workers. They are unlikely to find doctors quickly
• The CM is aware of the ICMR Sero survey and perhaps should wait for its results this week to do better scenario planning. If today’s news leak is true, 15% of Delhi walas are already infected and perhaps by July end, Delhi will hit herd immunity levels

The AAP Government has taken a beating on its healthcare reputation during the last one week. But responding to the situation with panic or mindlessly measures like preventing patients from neighbouring states to use their hospitals will really not help.