Assam Assembly Election 2021 : BJP’s Mission 100 v/s Congress’ Mission 80- Who is Ahead?
Assam Assembly election 2021 : In 2016 when J Jayalalitaa in Tamil Nadu and Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal returned to power with thumping victory, the north-eastern state of Assam was in for a huge political rejig. The state that was solely dominated by Indian National Congress and sometimes the regional party, Asom Gana Parishad was saffronised. BJP under the leadership of Sarbananda Sonowal won 60 Assembly seats in 126 seats Assam Assembly. It must be noted that BJP had contested only on 89 seats and rest were contested by its partners in the state. BJP along with its regional partners under Sarbananda Sonowal formed NDA government in Assam.
When Dhanananda disrespected Chanakya in his court, Chanakya vowed to dethrone the Nanda King Dhanananda from the throne of Magadh. When time came, Chanakya kept his promise. His trainee Chandragupta Maurya wiped away Nanda dynasty from Magadh and established Maurya Dynasty.
In Assam, it was Himanta Biswa Sarma who played the role of Chanakya. A former Congress leader Himanta, was disrespected by the Gandhi Scion Rahul Gandhi when Himanta went to meet him in Delhi. That was the day when Himanta Biswa Sarma vowed to end the Congress rule in Assam and entire North-east.
Today when we look at the political map of north-east, Congress in nowhere in the scene. The last Congress bastion in north-east, Mizoram, fell during 2019 Lok Sabha election. MNF a part of North East Democratic Alliance a wing of NDA in the north-east, formed the government in Mizoram. Today Himanta Biswa Sharma is not just respected as a leader in Assam but in entire north-east as he is regarded as BJP’s saviour.
Now let us study few elections that took place in Assam in the past
In 2016, BJP contested Assam election in an alliance with Asom Gana Parishad and Bodoland People’s Front. BJP contested in 89 seats, AGP on 30 and BPF on 13 seats. Congress on the other hand contested on 122 out of 126 Assembly seats of Assam. Badruddin Ajmal’s AIUDF contested on 74 Assembly seats of India. This is how the seats were reflected in the result of Assam Assembly election of 2016.
Now let us analyse the Lok Sabha election of 2019
Assam has total of 14 Lok Sabha constituencies. In 2019, BJP contested on 10 constituencies while its alliance partners Asom Gana Parishad contested on 3 and Bodoland People’s Front contested on 1 Lok Sabha seat. Congress on the other hand contested in all the 14 Lok Sabha seats of Assam. Result was something that Congress might have not expected. BJP won 9 of the 10 seats that it contested while Congress was reduced to all time low of 3 seats in Assam.
In Assam Politics, 42 Assembly seats of Upper Assam has an important role to play. It is said that if a party conquers upper Assam rules Assam for next five years. From Koliabor to Sadiya, in 2016 of BJP’s 60 seats more than half came from Upper Assam. In 2019, BJP increased its grip over Upper Assam. Congress on other hand, was in lead in only 6 of the Assembly seats of Upper Assam. In such scenario, if Congress fails to increase its base in Upper Assam, Mission 80 will just be on papers.
Who looks stronger to win Assam Assembly Election 2021?
The NRC and then Citizenship Amendment Bill, people of Assam have strongly voiced against it. The aftermath of CAA bill was felt in Assam where the visit of Japanese PM Shinzo Abe was cancelled due to widespread protest. Majority of Assamese are Hindus but they believe that after 1971, the indigenous people have been affected the most by the illegal migrants from Bangladesh both Muslims and Hindus. The Assamese are clear in their approach, “We don’t want anyone of them”. Therefore, the ruling BJP’s Mission 100 seems to bit unrealistic under such circumstances.
Assam Assembly Election 2021 may take place in the month of April-May in 2021. BJP has performed extremely well in Lok Sabha election. Added to it in last five years BJP’s membership in Assam increased from 2.5 lakhs to 60 lakhs. As per census 2011, Assam has 3.09 Crore population. BJP has been able to make inroads in districts where it did not contest in 2016. While for Congress they are banking on five years of Anti-incumbency and the implementation of CAA bill to return to power in Assam. Who will retain the power in Assam Assembly Election in 2021 it is for time to decide, but as of now to decide the winner will be bit early.
Read: West Bengal Assembly Election 2021 : Modi-Shah’s next target
Assam Assembly Election 2021 : BJP’s Mission 100 v/s Congress’ Mission 80- Who is Ahead?
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