Bihar Assembly Election 2020 : Easy win for BJP-JD(U), No for Tejaswi in RJD
Bihar Assembly Election 2020 seems to be over before the first vote has been cast. In 2015 Assembly election RJD was the single largest party followed by JD(U), five years down the line same party is struggling to keep its flock together just before the Bihar Assembly election. RJD may be missing their leader Lalu Prasad Yadav who is in jail in Ranchi. His son Tejashwi Yadav, former Deputy CM of Bihar was given charge of keeping RJD members together, but he seems to have failed.
On Tuesday, 23rd June, 5 MLC’s from RJD switched to Nitish Kumar’s JD(U). Since RJD had total 8 MLC’s and 5 switched, anti-defection law does not apply to MLC’s. Things did not end here, Raghuvansh Prasad Singh decided to step down from the post of the national vice president of RJD. He is reportedly unhappy at the likely induction of former MP Rama Kishore Singh in the party. However, he is yet to leave the party.
RJD’s trouble is not just within its party members, the existence of alliance, Mahagathbandhan, in Bihar is also a matter of concern. HAM leader Jiten Ram Majhi has already expressed his displeasure and threatened to quit alliance. There are rumours that Congress may also contest alone in the state. One must not forget how RJD declined a Rajya Sabha seat to Congress earlier this year. In such situation Bihar Assembly Election 2020, which was expected to a contesting one, may be over before it began.
Let us analyse the Voteshare of Bihar Assembly election 2015
In 2015, BJP contested on 157 Assembly seats and lost more than 104 seats while both RJD and JD(u) contested on 101 seats each and won more than half of their contested seats. RJD won 80 seats while JD(U) won 71. However, in terms of voteshare percent BJP was ahead of both RJD and JD(U). BJP got around 25% voteshare. One must not forget that in 2015 JD(U) was with RJD and this time JD(U) is with BJP. In Lok Sabha 2019 election, BJP+JD(U)+LJP swept the state completely. The alliance won 39 of 40 seats with over 53% voteshare while RJD+ could win only one seat.
However, it is never wise to compare Lok Sabha result with Assembly Election result. From Haryana to Jharkhand to Delhi, results have been completely opposite to that of Lok Sabha election. Bihar Assembly election is 3-4 months away. Due to COVID-19 none of the political parties are able to hit the street for campaign. However, such jolts for RJD just before election, confirms the direction of win. If trend follows, we may see a complete rout of RJD+ in Bihar Assembly Election 2020.
Crowdwisdom360’s Opinion Poll
We have conducted surveys (wisdom of the crowd method) on the Bihar Assembly Election 2020 in Gaya and Nalanda. In Gaya district, which has 10 seats RJD+ seems to comfortably lead in 8 seats while in 1 seat there is competition and in 1 seat of Gaya Town BJP+ is leading. In 2019 Lok Sabha election in the 8 seats where RJD+ seems strong was led by NDA by less than 20% vote margin. In Gaya Town and Barachatti the lead was way higher. It must be noted that Modi factor has always added 20% extra vote to BJP/NDA’s kitty. Read Crowdwisdom360’s Gaya District Survey Result Here
Likewise in Nalanda, which has 7 Assembly seats, NDA is comfortably ahead in ALL the seats. Even in Hilsa and Bihar Sarif, where NDA was ahead narrowly in 2019 Lok Sabha election, NDA seems to win comfortably. The survey result depicts that the seats where NDA lead by 20% or above in Lok Sabha 2019 may be bagged by NDA even in Assembly election. However, the seats where vote% margin was less than 20% NDA may lose the seat or may narrowly win it. Read Crowdwisdom360’s Nalanda District Survey Result Here.
How does this Translate on Crowdwisdom’s Data Analysis for Entire State?
Our State level predictions using participants from Bihar and following the Wisdom of Crowd (advanced) method suggest the BJP will win around 125 seats, a simple majority. Our claim is justified by Google Trend data which also shows a range of 125-135 seats for NDA in Bihar. We however, maintain our range between 125-150 seats.