Bihar Election: NDA may win a Landslide in Nalanda District
Bihar Election 2020: In our previous analysis and data from Gaya, we found that RJD will win a landslide in Gaya District. So the next district we chose was Nalanda, a district that RJD has historically not done well. If RJD does well here, it is game over for NDA.
Using the Wisdom of Crowd (Simple) method, we collected data from respondents based out of Nalanda district. Here is the status of each of the seats.
Seats likely to be Comfortably won by NDA
1. Nalanda
2. Harnaut
3. Rajgir
4. Asthawan
5. Islampur
Seats likely to be won by narrow margin by NDA
6. Bihar Sharif
7. Hilsa
Overall, it is a clean sweep for NDA.
The problem for RJD+ is that while they are able to win back some of the Yadav vote that went to NDA in 2019 and little bits of Dalit and OBC Vote, it does not translate to a swing greater than 10%. So when seen in combination with our previous analysis on Gaya, it seems to be that the only votes RJD+ is winning back is the Modi that votes for NDA ONLY because of Modi. 10% is not enough to win the election in 2020. Which means that the current RJD strategy is doomed to fail.
What are the State level Predictions for Bihar Election 2020?
Our State level predictions using participants from Bihar and following the Wisdom of Crowd (advanced) method suggest the BJP will win around 125 seats, a simple majority. Also, when we looked at Google Trends and derived vote shares from there, we arrive at a range between 125 and 135 seats for NDA. We believe at the moment that the likely range is closer to 150 rather than 125.
Big Challenges for RJD and Tejashwi in Bihar Election 2020
RJD has serious issues with the alliance itself and as things stand today, Tejashwi is yet to match Nitish. He needs to study both Stalin and Jagan on how they managed to edge themselves close to strong CM candidates like Chandrababu Naidu (in 2014) and Jayalalithaa (in 2016). Else, NDA will win comfortably once again.
On top of it all, senior RJD leader Raghuvanshi Singh Prasad quit as RJD national vice president yesterday and on top of all of that five MLCs SM Qamar Alam, Sanjay Prasad, Radha Charan Seth, Ranvijay Kumar Singh and Dilip Rai resigned from the Legislative Council yesterday and joined the JD(U)
The Bihar election looks like ending even before it started!
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Pic Courtesy: Outlook Magazine