CAG State Accounts: Bengal, MP lead on Economy, Bengal Election 21 Sealed?

It appears that while Mamata might be struggling on COVID-19, the State’s economy was flying (In comparison with rest of country) along with Madhya Pradesh . We use Tax revenue GROWTH as surrogate to come to this conclusio. See Tax revenue growth chart below.

At the bottom were Assam (we had data only until December, so not sure the -18% would hold for whole year), Andhra (Where the first two months were lost owing to change in Govt) and Punjab. The Captain may be very strong on National Security and even COVID but clearly economy is not his forte. Gujarat’s inspid performance on the economy is in line with its distressing performance on COVID. Jagan’s struggles on the economy extend to a very ordinary performance on COVID-19 where 2-3 districts appear to be doing very poorly. In his defence, AP Tests heavily but then when you combine that with economic performance, the picture isn’t great.

Big question is with this kind of economic performance, will Mamata win 2021 comfortably?

The Answer is YES but no, not because of the economy. Bengal decides on the basis of Mahaul

Mahaul is in favour of Didi

1. BJP instead of reducing fear amongst voters for Mamata, has sustained it. Unless older voters in rural Bengal donot fear Mamata and her local party workers, they are unlikely to vote BJP even if they want to. 

2. Mamata will start with a 30-35% loyal base and then mobilisation etc takes her to 40%+. BJP will start much lower making leadership an important factor. As of today, no BJP leader can be considered on par to Mamata. They can probably take it close but winning will be an altogether different game

3. Momentum: There is nothing in the air that says Mamata will lose. Unless this changes, last minute deciders will largely vote for Mamata. 

So as things stand today, Mamata is NOT losing 2021. But if the above 3 factors change direction over the next 12 months, it is end of the road for Mamata.

Tax Revenue Source: CAG

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