Canada Election Polls 2021 and Results: Detailed Election Results

Canada Election Polls 2021 and Results: Detailed Election Results

To Read the Alberta Provincial Election Polls 2023, Click here.

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Canada Election Polls 2021 and Results: Liberals 158, Conservatives 119, NDP 25, BQ 34, Greens 2

FINAL RESULTS

General Election: Election Leads and Results

Liberals: 32.3%, Conservatives: 33.9%, NDP: 17.7%, PPC: 5.1%, Greens: 2.3%, BQ: 7.8% (Source: Elections Canada)

CPCLPCNDPPPCBQ
Alberta55.4% (-13.6)15.3% (+1.5%)19% (+7.4%)7.5% (+5.3%)
BC33.4% (-0.6%)26.8% (+0.6%)29% (+4.6%)5.1% (+3.4%)
Ontario35.1 % (+2%)38.9% (-2.7%)17.9% (+1.1%)5.6% (+4%)
Quebec18.7% (+2.7%)33.4% (-0.9%)9.8% (-1%)2.7% (+1.2%)32.2% (-0.2%)
Manitoba39.5% (-2.7%)27.1% (+0.6%)23.3% (+2.5%)7.8% (+5.8%)
Saskatchewan59.8% (-4.2%)10.2% (-1.5%)20.5% (+0.9%)6.8% (+5%)

CPCLPCNDPPPCBQ
Toronto31.4%48.8%14.0%3.7%
Montréal11.2%40.9%12.1%2.7%30.1%
Calgary56.2%19.1%15.7%5.6%
Ottawa32.8%42.9%17.8%3.6%
Edmonton49.1%16.3%25.7%7.4%
Winnipeg36.7%29.7%23.6%7.6%

Pollster Leger was closest to the result

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Election Day, Google Search Live Update, Sep 20th

  • 8 AM to 7.30 PM Ontario Time: On Google Search, Liberals have a 11.7% share of search while the conservatives are at 25.2%. Over the last 7 days, Liberals had a 10.8% share of search while the Tories were at 20.9%
  • In 2019, on election day, October 21st, Liberals had a 8.1% share of search while the conservatives were at 22.5%

Canada Election Polls 2021 and News: Latest Seat Projections, Sep 20th

PollsterDateLiberalsConservativesNDPError, Top 3 parties
ResultsSep 20th15811925
Average of PollsSep 20th1561163212
LeantossupSep 20th1581143316
ASISep 19th168983844
338 CanadaSep 20th1481253223
2ClosetoCallSep 19th1521222812
Mainstreet Research Sep 19th1541203010 (Most accurate)
201915712124

Canada Election Polls 2021 and News: Latest Polls and Predicted Winner, Sep 19th

PollsterPolling DatesLiberalsConservativesNDP
Weekly Polls AverageSep 14-18th31.8%31.8%19.4%
EyesoverSep 19th35%32%18%
IpsosSep 15-18th31%32%21%
LegerSep 14th-17th32%33%19%
Angus Reid Sep 17th30%32%20%
CounselSep 18th31%30%19%
Daily Polls AverageReported on Sep 19th31.5%30.2%19.5%
Nanos ResearchSep 18th31%31%21%
Mainstreet ResearchSep 18th32%31%19%
EKOSSep 18th32.1%26.9%19.0%
Abacus DataSep 18th31%32%19%
Results 2019201933.1%34.3%16%

Canada Election Polls 2021 seat forecasts, Range

  • NDP – 28 to 38 [7 seats]
  • Liberals – 146 to 168[22 seats]
  • Conservatives – 98 to 127 [29 seats]

In 2019, Leger, Ipsos and Nanos were closest to the Conservatives performance, the average of the 3 pollsters gives the Tories a vote share of 31.3% in 2021

In 2019, Leger was closest to the Liberals performance, the pollster gives the Liberals a vote share of 32% in 2021

In 2019, Abacus was closest to the NDP performance, the pollster gives the NDP a vote share of 21% in 2021

A look at the key battlegrounds to watch across Canada

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Key races across Canada to watch on election night

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Canada Election Polls 2021, Range

  • NDP – 19 to 21% [ 2%]
  • Liberals – 30 to 35% [5%]
  • Conservatives – 26.9% to 33% [6.1%]

Google Search trends indicate NDP is most likely to underperform 2019 results [16% ]. However, Consensus amongst Pollsters is the highest for NDP forecasts

Canada Election Polls 2021, Male Voters, voting intentions

Average of PollsLegerAbacusEkosIpsos
Conservatives34.8%36%34%32%37%
Liberals30.0%31%30%29%30%
NDP18.5%19%16%19%20%

Canada Election Polls 2021, Female Voters, voting intentions

Average of PollsLegerAbacusEkosIpsos
Conservatives27.8%32%29%22%28%
Liberals33.8%32%33%37%33%
NDP21.0%21%23%18%22%

Canada Election Polls 2021, 18 to 34 years, voting intentions

Average of PollsLegerEkosIpsos
Conservatives24.7%25%24%25%
Liberals26.0%30%20%28%
NDP29.7%31%26%32%

Canada Election Polls 2021 province polls, Range

NDP

  • Ontario: 18-22% (4%)
  • Atlantic: 19-24% (5%)
  • BC: 27-33% (6%)
  • Quebec: 10-17% (7%)
  • Alberta: 13-26% (13%)

Liberals

  • Ontario: 35-39% (4%)
  • Quebec: 27-34% (7%)
  • Alberta: 14-21% (7%)
  • BC: 20-28% (8%)
  • Atlantic: 33-49% (16%)

Conservatives

  • Quebec: 16-20% (4%)
  • BC: 30-36% (6%)
  • Ontario: 26-35% (9%)
  • Alberta: 40-54% (14%)
  • Atlantic: 18-34% (16%)

Interactive: How Canadians voted in the past 7 federal elections

Read our latest analysis – People’s party of Canada is surging in the polls and on Google

Canada Election Polls 2021 and News: Accuracy of Polls

In 2019, Mainstreet Research’s predictions had an NDP tilt, EKOS missed the conservative forecast by 4% points, Nanos too over reported NDP share while Ipsos was relatively closer to the result than other pollsters. Angus Reid on the other hand missed the Liberal party forecasts by a mile. Overall, it appears NDP tends to get over represented in these polls.

Canada Election Polls 2021 and News: Who is winning according to Google Search? Sep 20th

On Google Search, Liberals have a 10.8% share of search in the last 7 days, Tories are at 20.9%

In 2019, Liberals had 11.0% share of search in the last 7 days prior to 2019 election, Tories were at 22.0%

In Quebec, the Liberals appeared to have gained vote share from the Bloc while bleeding everywhere else

Please do not convert Google Search data into vote share

Google too published search data click here

Canada Federal Election Polls and News: Trudeau Polls, Sep 20th

Google Search Update

Sep 13th to 20th: Justin Trudeau: 57.5%, Erin O’Toole: 25.3%, Jagmeet Singh: 17.2%

Sep 6th to 12th: Justin Trudeau: 57.9%, Erin O’Toole: 27.9%, Jagmeet Singh: 14.3%

2019 Election: Justin Trudeau: 48%, Andrew Scheer: 25%, Jagmeet Singh: 27%

Trudeau Polls Update, Preferred PM/ Best PM

PollsterPolling DatesTrudeauO’TooleSingh
Average Sep 15th-18th30.7%28.3%22.3%
Ipsos pollSep 15-18th28%27%23%
Abacus DataSep 18th35%32%22%
Nanos ResearchSep 18th29%26%22%

2019 Nanos Trudeau: 33, Scheer: 30, Singh: 9

Watch all the Canada Federal Election 2021 Ads here

Canada Federal Election Polls and News: Province level performance, Sep 19th

Final federal election poll shows tight three-way race in B.C. | Vancouver Sun

YouTube video

Latest Ontario Polls 2021 and Google Search Data: Liberals bleed in Ontario but O’Toole fails to Cash in

Google Search Data, Province Level Swings, Sep 19th

ProvinceLPCCPCNDP
BC+2%+2%-18%
Alberta-5%-6%-13%
Ontario+0%-2%-18%
ProvinceBQLPCCPCNDP
Quebec-10%-3%+7%-7%

Ipsos Province level Update (Sep 19th)

Angus Reid Update, (Sep 18th)

Mainstreet Research Update (Sep 19th)

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Ekos Politics Sep 19th

Abacus Province level data, Sep 19th

Leger Poll, Sep 18th

Major Issues that Could Impact the Upcoming Canada Federal Election

Canada election: Unemployment in Newfoundland could rock vote

YouTube video

Inflation, affordability top election concerns: survey

  1. Handling of Ongoing Coronavirus Pandemic
    Canada is facing a fourth wave of Coronavirus pandemic and the country is under serious economic pressure. Added to it the growing concerns among the unvaccinated citizens is set to impact the election result. The political parties are keen to focus on their competing visions for how Canada can recover from the pandemic.
  2. Housing Affordability
    Recently a research published by Nanos showed that affordable housing has become a top issue in the 2021 federal election. The poll showed 15 per cent of Canadians surveyed said they are worried about whether they will be able to pay for their housing in the next 30 days.
  3. Racial Justice
    There has been growing calls for racial justice in Canada. Since the discovery of unmarked graves at residential schools, anti-racism have become one of the key focuses of the election.

Election 2021 platforms: Here’s what the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP are promising

CBC News: How do the main parties compare on these issues?

Canada Federal Election Polls and News: What Happened in the Last Election?

PartyVotesVote PercentageSeats Won/TotalChange In Seats from 2015
Liberal6,018,72833.1%157 / 338 (46%)Decrease 27
Conservative6,239,22734.3%121 / 338 (36%)Increase 22
Bloc Québécois1,384,0307.6%32 / 338 (9%)Increase 22
New Democratic2,903,72216.0%24 / 338 (7%)Decrease 20
Green1,189,6076.5%3 / 338 (0.9%)Increase 1
Independent75,8360.4%1 / 338 (0.3%)Increase 1

Canada Federal Election 2021 Polls and News: Election Procedure

Canada Election 2021 Date: September 20th, 2021

The Parliament of Canada has two chambers: the House of Commons and the Senate. House of Commons have 338 seats while Senate has 105 members. The term of House of Commons is five years.

The party with maximum number of seats gets a chance to run the government for five years. The majority mark in Canadian House of Commons in 170 seats. However, a party with lesser number of seats can form a minority government supported by other parties.

Eligibility of Voters (Source Wikipedia)

  • Every Canadian citizen 18 years of age or older has the right to vote, except for the Chief Electoral Officer and the Deputy Chief Electoral Officer
  • Inmates serving a sentence of at least two years are allowed to vote in Canadian Federal election after 2002.
  • Many Canadian voters are expected to be able to send mail-in ballots due to COVID-19, which Canada’s chief electoral officer recently said could delay the results by a few days.

Canada Federal Election Polls and News: Important Dates

Advance Polls: Sept. 10-13 (Polling Stations) or through Sept 14 at Elections Canada ofc.

By Mail: Apply by Sept. 14, and mail by Sept. 20

In-person: Sept. 20

Ontario Polls 2022

Voting rules for electors living outside of Canada

When can you expect your voter ​information card?

Check out our coverage of the Canadian elections

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Subhash

Subhash

Subhash, Founder of Crowdwisdom360 is an MBA and a Trained Financial Advisor with an extensive background in Forecasting in Financial Services and Politics. He has appeared many times on National TV and has written for a variety of magazines on Wealth Management and Election Strategy.