Canada Election Polls 2021: Latest Projections- Liberals 146 to 168, Conservatives 98 to 127, NDP at 28 to 38
Canada is headed for a federal election on September 20th, 2021. On August 15th, 2021, Governor-General Mary Simon dissolved Parliament at Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s request. Canada’s next fixed-date election was set for October 2023. However, Justin Trudeau urged the Governor to dissolve the Parliament saying Canadians deserve a chance to decide who should guide the country out of the pandemic.
To read full article you can skip the section on Google Search Live update, a good predictor election results today
Election Day, Google Search Live Update, Sep 20th
- 6 AM to 10 AM Ontario Time: On Google Search, Liberals have a 12.4% share of search while the conservatives are at 25.5%. Over the last 7 days, Liberals had a 10.8% share of search while the Tories were at 20.9%
- In 2019, on election day, October 21st, Liberals had a 8.1% share of search while the conservatives were at 22.5%
It’s Our Vote (Elections Canada 2021 Ad)
- Canada Election Polls 2021 and News: Latest Polls and Predicted Winner, Sep 19th
- Canada Election Polls 2021 and News: Who is winning according to Google Search? Sep 20th
- Canada Federal Election Polls and News: Trudeau Polls, Sep 20th
- Canada Federal Election Polls and News: Latest Videos, Sep 20th
- Canada Federal Election Polls and News: Campaign Tweets and Posts, Sep 19th
Canada Election Polls 2021 and News: Latest Polls and Predicted Winner, Sep 19th
Weekly Polls Average
Daily Polls Average
Reported on Sep 19th
Canada Election Polls 2021 and News: Latest Seat Projections, Sep 20th
Average of Polls
Canada Election Polls 2021 seat forecasts, Range
- NDP – 28 to 38 [7 seats]
- Liberals – 146 to 168[22 seats]
- Conservatives – 98 to 127 [29 seats]
In 2019, Leger, Ipsos and Nanos were closest to the Conservatives performance, the average of the 3 pollsters gives the Tories a vote share of 31.3% in 2021
In 2019, Leger was closest to the Liberals performance, the pollster gives the Liberals a vote share of 32% in 2021
In 2019, Abacus was closest to the NDP performance, the pollster gives the NDP a vote share of 21% in 2021
A look at the key battlegrounds to watch across Canada
Key races across Canada to watch on election night
Canada Election Polls 2021, Range
- NDP – 19 to 21% [ 2%]
- Liberals – 30 to 35% [5%]
- Conservatives – 26.9% to 33% [6.1%]
Google Search trends indicate NDP is most likely to underperform 2019 results [16% ]. However, Consensus amongst Pollsters is the highest for NDP forecasts
Canada Election Polls 2021, Male Voters, voting intentions
Average of Polls
Canada Election Polls 2021, Female Voters, voting intentions
Average of Polls
Canada Election Polls 2021, 18 to 34 years, voting intentions
Average of Polls
Canada Election Polls 2021 province polls, Range
- Ontario: 18-22% (4%)
- Atlantic: 19-24% (5%)
- BC: 27-33% (6%)
- Quebec: 10-17% (7%)
- Alberta: 13-26% (13%)
- Ontario: 35-39% (4%)
- Quebec: 27-34% (7%)
- Alberta: 14-21% (7%)
- BC: 20-28% (8%)
- Atlantic: 33-49% (16%)
- Quebec: 16-20% (4%)
- BC: 30-36% (6%)
- Ontario: 26-35% (9%)
- Alberta: 40-54% (14%)
- Atlantic: 18-34% (16%)
Canada Election Polls 2021: Crowd’s Wisdom (Videos)
Jordan Peterson Smashes Trudeau (with Rex Murphy)
Erin O’Toole so-called candidate of “truth, duty, and valour” won’t respond to Rebel News’ questions
My 2021 Canadian Federal Election Prediction (US Crowd view)
Read our latest analysis – People’s party of Canada is surging in the polls and on Google
Canada Election Polls 2021 and News: Accuracy of Polls
In 2019, Mainstreet Research’s predictions had an NDP tilt, EKOS missed the conservative forecast by 4% points, Nanos too over reported NDP share while Ipsos was relatively closer to the result than other pollsters. Angus Reid on the other hand missed the Liberal party forecasts by a mile. Overall, it appears NDP tends to get over represented in these polls.
Canada Election Polls 2021 and News: Who is winning according to Google Search? Sep 20th
On Google Search, Liberals have a 10.8% share of search in the last 7 days, Tories are at 20.9%
In 2019, Liberals had 11.0% share of search in the last 7 days prior to 2019 election, Tories were at 22.0%
In Quebec, the Liberals appeared to have gained vote share from the Bloc while bleeding everywhere else
Please do not convert Google Search data into vote share
Canada Federal Election Polls and News: Trudeau Polls, Sep 20th
Google Search Update
Sep 13th to 20th: Justin Trudeau: 57.5%, Erin O’Toole: 25.3%, Jagmeet Singh: 17.2%
Sep 6th to 12th: Justin Trudeau: 57.9%, Erin O’Toole: 27.9%, Jagmeet Singh: 14.3%
2019 Election: Justin Trudeau: 48%, Andrew Scheer: 25%, Jagmeet Singh: 27%
Trudeau Polls Update, Preferred PM/ Best PM
2019 Nanos Trudeau: 33, Scheer: 30, Singh: 9
Canada Federal Election Polls and News: Province level performance, Sep 19th
Final federal election poll shows tight three-way race in B.C. | Vancouver Sun
Google Search Data, Province Level Swings, Sep 19th
Angus Reid Update, (Sep 18th)
Mainstreet Research Update (Sep 19th)
Abacus Province level data, Sep 19th
Leger Poll, Sep 18th
Major Issues that Could Impact the Upcoming Canada Federal Election
Canada election: Unemployment in Newfoundland could rock vote
- Handling of Ongoing Coronavirus Pandemic
Canada is facing a fourth wave of Coronavirus pandemic and the country is under serious economic pressure. Added to it the growing concerns among the unvaccinated citizens is set to impact the election result. The political parties are keen to focus on their competing visions for how Canada can recover from the pandemic.
- Housing Affordability
Recently a research published by Nanos showed that affordable housing has become a top issue in the 2021 federal election. The poll showed 15 per cent of Canadians surveyed said they are worried about whether they will be able to pay for their housing in the next 30 days.
- Racial Justice
There has been growing calls for racial justice in Canada. Since the discovery of unmarked graves at residential schools, anti-racism have become one of the key focuses of the election.
Canada Federal Election Polls and News and Issue Tracker, Sep 20th
Canada Federal Election Polls and News: Latest Videos, Sep 20th
What to know about voting on election day | Ask CBC News
Jagmeet Singh holds his final rally of federal election campaign – September 19, 2021
O’Toole makes last pitch to voters before election day
Trudeau appeals to progressive voters on final day of campaign
Meet Erin O’Toole: A Mini-Documentary
Justin Trudeau addresses supporters in Niagara Falls – September 19, 2021
Jagmeet Singh campaigns in Port Coquitlam, B.C. – September 19, 2021
Canada Federal Election Polls and News: Campaign Tweets and Posts, Sep 19th
One person with a vision is a powerful thing.
Two people with a vision, coming together to fight for better? That’s what changes the world.
Help us fight for that change.
Text 3 friends right now and join together tomorrow to vote for better.
I’m LIVE with our Alberta team to talk about how we’re going to move forward – on vaccines, on child care, on green jobs, and more.
Je suis en DIRECT avec notre équipe de l’Alberta pour parler vaccins, services de garde, emplois verts et plus encore.
Originally tweeted by Erin O’Toole (@erinotoole)
I’ve loved having the family join me in the campaign. Thank you everyone for standing by my side as we work hard to #SecureTheFuture for all Canadian families (pets included!)
If you want $10 a day child care, if you want to keep assault weapons off our streets, if you want Canada to lead the world on good, green jobs — on Monday, go out and vote Liberal. #ForwardForEveryone
Vote to bring Canada together. Vote to secure the future. Vote Conservative.
Massive turnout Friday night! Due to popular demand the Mad Max Election Tour has been extended! Bernier will be speaking at the World Wide Rally for Freedom today (Saturday Sep 18) 1PM at Central Memorial Park. Join us!
#voteppc #purplewave #ppc #yyc #worldwiderallyforfreedom
Canada Federal Election Polls and News: What Happened in the Last Election?
Change In Seats from 2015
157 / 338 (46%)
121 / 338 (36%)
32 / 338 (9%)
24 / 338 (7%)
3 / 338 (0.9%)
1 / 338 (0.3%)
Canada Federal Election 2021 Polls and News: Election Procedure
Canada Election 2021 Date: September 20th, 2021
The Parliament of Canada has two chambers: the House of Commons and the Senate. House of Commons have 338 seats while Senate has 105 members. The term of House of Commons is five years.
The party with maximum number of seats gets a chance to run the government for five years. The majority mark in Canadian House of Commons in 170 seats. However, a party with lesser number of seats can form a minority government supported by other parties.
Eligibility of Voters (Source Wikipedia)
- Every Canadian citizen 18 years of age or older has the right to vote, except for the Chief Electoral Officer and the Deputy Chief Electoral Officer
- Inmates serving a sentence of at least two years are allowed to vote in Canadian Federal election after 2002.
- Many Canadian voters are expected to be able to send mail-in ballots due to COVID-19, which Canada’s chief electoral officer recently said could delay the results by a few days.
Canada Federal Election Polls and News: Important Dates
Advance Polls: Sept. 10-13 (Polling Stations) or through Sept 14 at Elections Canada ofc.
By Mail: Apply by Sept. 14, and mail by Sept. 20
In-person: Sept. 20