Latest Federal Opinion Polls Canada 2025

Latest Federal Opinion Polls Canada 2025

Latest Federal Opinion Polls Canada: The Liberals are polling lower than in the 2021 election with NDP gaining the most.

Average of Canada Federal Election Polls

  • LPC-31.7% (+2%)
  • CPC-34.7% (+0.4%)
  • NDP-18.4% (-2.3%)

Justin Trudeau scraped through the 2021 Federal Election by winning 160 out of 338 seats. This was an improvement of 5 seats despite a 0.5% loss in vote share. The Liberals had a highly efficient vote distribution winning 4.9 seats for every 1% of votes won. The Conservatives won 3.5 seats for every 1% of votes won. The NDP continued to be highly inefficient in Federal Elections winning just 1.4 seats for every 1% of votes won.

Latest Federal Opinion Polls Canada 2025: Observations and Insights

Justin Trudeau’s Liberals appear to be slipping with NDP gaining significantly

  1. Where are the Liberals losing momentum?
    • The Liberals are mostly losing momentum in Ontario (-9%)
    • Other segments where the Liberals are struggling include – MB/SK (-4%), Voters older than 55 (-3%)
  2. Where is NDP gaining?
    • Ontario (+8%), Voters older than 55 (+3%)
  3. What are the top 3 issues?
    • Cost of Living
    • Healthcare
    • Economy
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Latest Canada Federal Election Polls: Vote Share Forecast

Average of Last 3 Polls, January 28th, 2023

  • LPC-31.7% (+2%)
  • CPC-34.7% (+0.4%)
  • NDP-18.4% (-2.3%)

Leger, January 22nd

  • LPC-34.0%
  • CPC-34.0%
  • NDP-19.0%

Nanos Research, January 20th

  • LPC-30.0%
  • CPC-35.0%
  • NDP-18.0%

Abacus, January 16th

  • LPC-31.0%
  • CPC-35.0%
  • NDP-18.0%

Latest Canada Federal Election Polls: Google Search Share

  • LPC- 30% (Rising)
  • CPC-40% (Steady)
  • NDP-30% (Declining)

Latest Canada Federal Election Polls: Social Media Sentiment

  • LPC- (-37%)
  • CPC – (-56.3%)
  • NDP- (-51.8%)

Canada Election Polls: Summary of recent elections

Two major provincial elections were completed after that, here is how each of the leading parties performed in Federal and Provincial election

Liberal Party of Canada Vote Share, Federal vs Provincial Elections

  • Quebec
    • Provincial 2018: 24.8% -> Federal 2021: 33.6% -> Provincial 2022: 14.4%
  • Ontario
    • Provincial 2018: 19.6% ->Federal 2021: 39.3% -> Provincial 2022: 23.9%

Conservative Party of Canada Vote Share, Federal vs Provincial Elections

  • Quebec
    • Provincial 2018: 1.5% -> Federal 2021: 18.6% -> Provincial 2022: 12.9%
  • Ontario
    • Provincial 2018: 40.5% ->Federal 2021: 34.9% -> Provincial 2022: 40.8%

New Democratic Party Vote Share, Federal vs Provincial Elections

  • Ontario
    • Provincial 2018: 33.6% ->Federal 2021: 9.8% -> Provincial 2022: 23.7%

The Conservatives have held ground in Ontario and have been efficient in Quebec. NDP has lost ground in Ontario to the Liberals while the Liberals had a mixed bag with gains in Ontario offset by losses in Quebec.

The new Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre will attempt to be more efficient in Ontario where Doug Ford has consistently delivered 40% of the votes. Trudeau has a huge problem on his hands with a weak succession of leaders as could be seen in both Quebec and Ontario.

Latest Canada Federal Election Polls: Summary

  • Both the CPC and LPC have made some headway but not by a huge margin
  • NDP appears to have lost momentum in Ontario
  • CPC has growth opportunities in Ontario while Liberals have serious leadership issues that need resolution.

What Happened in the Last Canadian Federal Election?

On September 20, 2021, Canada voted to elect the members to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The election was called after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau requested the Governor to dissolve the parliament and call for a snap election.

The election result was not what Justin Trudeau had expected added to it, the result was neither in favor of the Conservative Party. The Conservative Party was contesting under the leadership of Erin O’Toole.

Despite the ruling Liberal Party under Justin Trudeau facing a huge anti-incumbency, the Conservative Party failed to dislodge Trudeau’s government.

The Liberals under Justin Trudeau were able to win 160 seats, 5 seats more than what it had won in the last election. The Conservative Party won 119 seats similar to the last election.

Trudeau’s Liberals failed to touch the majority mark of 170 seats, therefore went on to form a minority government. Trudeau’s government is supported by Jagmeet Singh’s NDP which has 25 seats in the Parliament.

Canada Demography

Total Population: As per the latest data, the total population of Canada is around 38 million. Canada is the 38th largest country in the world in terms of population. Canada has a more female population than a male population. There are 98.58 males per 100 females.

Religious Composition of Canada: Canada has a vibrant population. The major religions followed in Canada are Christianity, Islam, Judaism, Buddhism, Hinduism, and Sikhism. Of these, 67% of Canadians are Christian, 24% have no religion, and 3.2% are Muslim. Sikhs in Canada form around 1.4% of the total population while Hindus are around 1.5%.

Major Races of Canada: Ethnic Group forms 32.3% of the Canadian population, English are around 18.%, Scottish (13.9%), French (13.6%), Irish (13.4%), German (9.6%) and Chinese (5.1%).

Nitesh Singh

Nitesh Singh

Nitesh is primarily focused on political analysis and creates political opinions based on data. He also takes interest in writing Crypto articles mostly related to price predictions.

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