CM Ashok Gehlot under threat : 5 Reasons why BJP could topple him

Yesterday, 24 Congress MLAs accused the BJP of trying to buy them and topple CM Ashok Gehlot.

BJP needs some 25-30 MLAs to form the next Government. Which means it needs some 20 Congress MLAs to defect to its side just like in Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka.

CM Ashok Gehlot under threat : 5 Reasons why BJP could topple him

Here are 5 reasons why Gehlot Government could fall in Rajasthan before the end of next year

  1. Congress MLAs across the country have proven to be particularly vulnerable to the efforts by the BJP. The BJP is able to offer a wider choice of rewards to MLAs defecting from other parties. Karnataka and MP are good examples. Congress MLAs defecting have benefitted in many ways. Watch our Video on the recent history of Congress MLAs defecting to the BJP
YouTube video

2. Because of lack of ideological purity, Congress MLAs are less resistant to good offers by stronger parties across the country – Whether it is BJP, TRS, YSRCP, BJD, TMC or others. Other parties whether it is due to ideology (like BJP/ Left) or Caste Politics (Like RJD, SP etc) witness less defections

3. While the Rajasthan Government has not performed poorly, numerous promises are yet to be fulfilled – Job creation has been slow on account of nationwide economic slowdown (14% unemployment at the moment, higher than rest of country, Loan waivers have not been huge and quite slow etc). Defecting away from the Congress giving these exact reasons may turn out quite favourable for the defecting MLAs

4. In Rajasthan, there has always been some level of divisions within the party. While there is no evidence that Sachin Pilot will do a Scindia, there is no guarantee that others will not do the same if given the opportunity

5. Both Modi and Shah are aggressive players and just like Karnataka and MP, once they make up their mind, they keep persisting until it is done.

So, in many ways the Ashok Gehlot Government is quite vulnerable. Only careful navigation over the next 18 months or so will keep the Government safe. The BJP is unlikely to topple the Government in 2022 with elections just 2 years away

Ashok Gehlot's press conference

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