Corona in Delhi Overtakes Mumbai, but is Mumbai testing enough?
Corona in Delhi finally overtook Mumbai!
Delhi now has 70390 cases after adding 3788 cases yesterday. Mumbai is now at 69528 cases after adding 1118 cases yesterday.
On deaths, Delhi has recorded 2365 deaths and 41437 recoveries, a death rate of 5.4% of completed cases. Mumbai has recorded 3964 deaths and 37008 recoveries, a death rate of 9.7% of completed cases
On Testing, Delhi has completed 4.2 lakh tests. Mumbai on the other hand has completed 3 lakh tests. In fact, post Amit Shah getting involved, which is from the 15th to the 24th, Delhi Carried out 1.3 lakh tests. Mumbai carried out 42000 tests during that period. So it is clear that one of the biggest reasons for a massive spike of Corona in Delhi versus rest of the country is massive increase in testing.
While we will get into testing in greater detail, we must note that Mumbai has done a remarkable job controlling cases in slums like Dharavi over the last two weeks. This has enabled the city to get a grip of the situation which appeared to have gotten out of control 2-3 weeks ago.
What if Mumbai also completed 4.2 lakh tests?
Total number of Cases (assuming same positivity rate as March to June) in Mumbai would have been 97000 cases or 27000 cases higher. In other words, Corona in Delhi would have been much lesser than Corona in Mumbai
If one applies this formula to the recovery cases also, Mumbai would have had 53800 recovery cases as of today and the overall death rate amongst completed cases would have been 7.3% and not 9.7%
We have seen this across States, as testing slows down or is low, overall death rate gets inflated as the probability of serious cases getting reported in the data is MUCH HIGHER than Mild Cases. The other reason why death rate gets inflated is because of poor testing, many cases are reported late to the authorities.
That said, Mumbai will still have higher deaths than Delhi simply because it has far more older people than Mumbai. In the 2011 Census, Mumbai had 11.3 lakhs people in the 50 to 69 age group (today they would be in the 60 to 79 age band) versus 9.25 lakhs in Delhi
Increased testing will help Mumbai because the City will be able to actually reduce the death rate over a time period. Because of lower testing, even as the City appears to have controlled the number of Cases, death rate continues to remain at a higher level.
Which BIG Cities have a lot of Old People?
Bangalore: 6.9 lakhs, Kolkata: 5.1 lakhs, Hyderabad: 5 lakhs, Ahmedabad: 4.9 lakhs, Chennai: 4.7 lakhs, Pune: 2.9 lakhs
So it is really remarkable that Bangalore has reported just 78 deaths inspite of having so many old people!
Read our previous article on deaths in Maharashtra on DailyHunt
Read our previous article on Corona in Delhi here on CrowdWisdom360
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Dharavi Pic Courtesy: Economic Times
Article by CrowdWisdom360’s Analysis Team