Counting Day Live
A summary of the last 2 months
LEADERSHIP
– Modi likely win heavily fuelled by the Youth in North/East and West
– In Particular Youth living in Small towns and Villages
– Modi is seen as someone who has put India on the world map (all the credit and honours India appears to be getting)
– Modi is seen as Credible given his track record on the ground (Infra, Toilets, LPG, Ayushman etc)
– Modi is seen as genuine and selfless and not doing it for himself but for the greater good (No major corruption scandals, no family)
– Modi is seen as confident leader who has no hesitation in showing his Indian values and has been self made
On the other hand
– Congress is seen as corrupt and a party that failed to move India in the last 70 years (Same old NYAY)
– Congress is almost absent in many States – UP/Bengal/Odisha/ Andhra – These 4 states make up for 168 Seats (31%)
– Rahul has no particular track record of performance that the voter can rely on, he might be sounding more sincere but he has NO track record
PARTY and CULTURE– The BJP is increasingly recognised as a party with cultural roots and intensely patriotic
– It is able to attract the brightest minds (at the mid-level) from across the country
– Its vote bank now includes something that even the Congress had failed – All segments of Hindu Votes (Including OBCs)
– The Congress on the other hand is struggling to present leaders with a strong connect to the masses. For example, its weak national brand gets exposed even more so when it struggles with weak leadership on the ground too – Telangana, Odisha, Maharashtra, Gujarat etc
– Its voting segments are now operating in the narrow bands of SCs/STs and Minorities
– The Congress lacks a strong ideological force after having attracted numerous party members in the last 30 to 40 years with a weak ideological bent of mind (It is visible in the frequent power grab defections across the country)
The beginning of the decline of the regional parties?Amongst parties competing directly against the BJP, the regional parties that have managed to hold base or even expand include – DMK, RJD, JMM, NCP. What is common amongst all of them? They are allied with the Congress party. Only perhaps JD(S) has struggled given its struggling alliance in Karnataka.
Parties that have struggled include – SP, BSP, TMC, BJD
Parties that have survived due to no direct competition against the BJP include – YSRCP, TRS
The OBC battleWhile the Congress is overwhelmed amongst upper castes, it makes up for this amongst minorities either directly or through its allies. The biggest issue for the Congress is amongst lower OBCs
Lower OBCs make up for about 35% of the voters. Congress or even its allies lack votes here and have no apparent plan to overcome this problem.
Should Congress have joined the MGB?
No guarantee BJP would not have breached 50% in UP. The challenges would have been the same.
End of the Road for Congress?On the contrary, it is Not the end of the road. There is always going to be an opposition space across the country and should congress leaders continue to work hard and focussed on real voter issues, they will still have a chance. But with the BJP hitting the 40% mark. Congress and its allies will now have to add up to least 40% to be able to compete in future elections in many States. To succeed it will need to start finding a way to share power with leaders like Mayawati, Mamata Banerjee, Akhilesh Yadav, Chandrababu and likes. A more permanent Opposition alliance nationally is the only way to be competitive
What next nationally and Modi Challenges?Many things worked for the BJP
– Mass national programs
– Focus on visible change
– Strong domestic and International security and foreign affairs
All three will continue (Watch out for water for all initiative which will open the doors for the BJP in the South) . However, the biggest challenge for Mr. Modi will be to pull the economy out of its slightly volatile performance. While the service and informal sector is creating jobs. An unemployment rate of about (7% in the Axis survey) in an environment of generically low labour force participation is also a serious issue. Related to this is the issue of Famers and Agricultural labour who are struggling in this low demand/low productivity and hence low inflation environment
Sectors like to gain the most
– Financial Services (as lines of credit continue to grow in rural India
– Warehousing and Logistics
– Organic sector companies
– Solar and Wind Energy (Renewables)
– IT (Digitization of land records etc)
– Low Cost Housing and Construction and related raw material companies
– Companies involved directly and indirectly in the water sector
– Tourism, Hotels etc are likely to see more focus going forward
– Companies involved directly or indirectly with Urban Transportation
– Airlines
– Healthcare (due to possible expansion of Ayushman Bharat)
– FMCG due to the continued flow of cash to rural India
– Electronics, Mechanical and Electrical Manufacturing
Sectors that may lose out
– Private Educational Institutions are likely to face more competition from the Government
– Private urban and rural transport
– Informal Money lenders
– Import driven Traders