COVID-19, why Doubling Metric is Complete Rubbish
Some Government Experts and Media folks are pushing the point that doubling rate has come down and hence we are getting better. This is actually quite silly and it is quite a surprise that something like this has caught any traction. Let us look at the actual numbers
On 12th of June, India had 3.1 lakh cases
On 26th May, India had 1.5 lakh cases.
In other words, it took nearly 17 days for the cases to double
On 12th May, India had 74.3k cases which means it took just 14 days to double to 1.5 lakhs
The argument is that the doubling rate has increased from 14 days to 17 days and hence we are improving. In theory, one can feel good about it. The reality is as follows
Between 12th May and 26th May, India added 5350 Cases Daily
Between 27th May and 12th June, India added 9400 Cases Cases Daily
In other words an increase of 75% on a daily basis. Not sure by what metric a 75% increase in daily rate is a success.
Let me give you an example from cricket
India is playing a match against Sri Lanka (who else). Sri Lanka scored as follows
10 Overs 50 runs
15 overs 100 runs
22 overs 200 runs
To to reach from 50 to 100 runs it took 5 overs which is a run rate of 10. It took 7 overs to reach from 100 runs to 200 runs, a run rate of 14 runs per over. Should India be thrilled that doubling rate has increased from 5 overs to 7 overs or worry that run rate has increased from 10 to 14? You know the answer!
Coming back to Corona, Let us assume, we continue to grow at 75%, the daily increase in cases will be 16500 per day. In order to double, which is to touch 6.2 lakhs, it will take 19 days. Which is higher than 17 days it took earlier. But should a 75% increase in daily rate be viewed as success?
Doubling rate is a dubious metric, chuck it!