COVID cases: Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai have Slowed down

COVID Cases: There may be some good news finally coming in from the 3 Metros that have been affected the most due to Corona.

How many COVID Cases in Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai?

  • Delhi: 120107 (7368 cases per million)
  • Mumbai: 99164 (8000 cases per million)
  • Chennai: 83377 (9695 cases per million)

How many cases have these 3 cities added in the last 2 weeks?

  • Delhi: 25312 (27% increase)
  • Mumbai: 17530 (21% increase)
  • Chennai: 16839 (25% increase)

During this period, India COVID cases increased by 60%. Tamil Nadu itself increased by 56% and Maharashtra increased by 52%.

Herd Immunity?

Some argue that Mumbai is testing less and that is true. However, lower testing has often resulted in big spike in death numbers which has not happened in Mumbai. Delhi and Chennai are certainly testing heavily. Another argument is that intense lockdown in Chennai may have helped. That is also possible. However, with two weeks post the intense lockdown, Chennai is still growing at a slow pace.

COVID cases: Have Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai started to Flatten?

On June 11th, ICMR reported that 0.73% of Indians or about 9.9 million Indians had already been infected with Corona. On June 11th, India reported 0.3 million COVID cases in total. Which means the under reporting was about 32 times.

If one were to apply this 32 times under reporting to the 3 big cities,

  • Delhi becomes 2.1 lakhs per million or about 20%
  • Mumbai becomes 2.4 lakhs per million or about 24%
  • and Chennai becomes, 2.9 lakhs per million or nearly 30%

The real number may be never known to us but the fact that the real numbers are much higher is without dispute. With 20%+ population infected, the spread of the infection automatically begins to slow down as more and more people run into people they already know and may have already been infected or resistant to infection. So it is not a coincidence that three cities they have all fallen at the same time.

It needs to be seen if these cities sustain these levels and what point other cities are also slowing down. But as things stand, this is very good news for India.

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