Delhi: Has Amit Shah Exposed Kejriwal’s non-transparent Governance?

Let us look at Delhi statistics of the last three weeks

Delhi Performance, Week- 10th to 16th June

Total Cases Added: 13379

Total Recovered: 4689

Total Dead: 932

Total Tests Done: 43404

Death to Completed Cases Ratio: 16.7%

Positivity Rate: 30.8%

If you notice, there are two trends here. One, a very high death rate and two, a very high positivity rate. The death rate is high because the Kejriwal Government suddenly reported 400+ deaths in one day, apparently an outcome of an audit. The Positivity rate appears to be high either because the testing infrastructure was not in place or the Govt was not testing enough.

Delhi Performance, Week- 17th to 23rd June

Total Cases Added: 21914

Total Recovered: 22813

Total Dead: 464

Total Tests Done: 97165

Death to Completed Cases Ratio: 2 %

Positivity Rate: 23%

Once Amit Shah called a meeting, a few things changed – Because the Delhi Govt cleared old backlog of deaths, the total number of deaths fell in this week from 932 to 464. The positivity rate also fell as testing shot up by more than 2 fold. The Delhi Government also changed the discharge policy which meant that discharged cases went up 4x times in just one week. So a dramatic change in all statistics after the Amit Shah meeting

Delhi Performance, Week- 24th to 30th June

Total Cases Added: 20758

Total Recovered: 19035

Total Dead: 441

Total Tests Done: 130104

Death to Completed Cases Ratio: 2.3 %

Positivity Rate: 16%

During the last week, total dead has fallen slightly. Recovered numbers have fallen as all discharges are under the new policy. Tests done increased further and this reduced positivity rate even further.There are some improvements but not as drastically as the week after Amit Shah’s meeting.

Delhi: Has Amit Shah Exposed Kejriwal’s non-transparent Governance?

The answer is YES

  • The Delhi Government had hidden close to 450 deaths (They claim audit noticed that). The coincidence is that these numbers were released a day or two after the Amit Shah meeting (High Amit Shah Impact)
  • Delhi was reporting low cases everyday as it tested less. However, that changed after Amit Shah got involved and testing was doubled. (Medium Amit Shah Impact)
  • While the Delhi Govt was working on changing the discharge policy before Amit Shah intervened, the change got implemented only a day before the Amit Shah meeting (Low Amit Shah Impact)
Delhi Meeting

That said, one cannot say Delhi has suddenly improved. The reason being the total number of deaths have remained the same over the last two weeks. This indicates that perhaps the increased testing is coming more from asymptomatic cases. Of course, improved testing and a less pressurised healthcare system also enables manage a lower death and one cannot deny that.

Politically, the Corona Crisis Management has been an embarrassment for Kejriwal. Not just because of Amit Shah alone but the entire claimed improvements in Healthcare system have all turned out to be a mega flop. To be fair, Niti Aayog never rated Delhi very highly. So that ends that claim for sometime.

Note about Big Cities

Big Cities have tended to have a lot of deaths because of large number of old people live close to each other.

In the 2011 Census, Mumbai had 11.3 lakhs people in the 50 to 69 age group (today they would be in the 60 to 79 age band) versus 9.25 lakhs in Delhi, Bangalore: 6.9 lakhs, Kolkata: 5.1 lakhs, Hyderabad: 5 lakhs, Ahmedabad: 4.9 lakhs, Chennai: 4.7 lakhs, Pune: 2.9 lakhs

The fatality rate tends to be 5-10 times higher amongst older people compared to other age groups.

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