Google Trends: Worry for BJP in the Assembly Elections but not in Lok Sabha
Google Trends has by and large accurately predicted who is likely to end with the most seats in an election (2015 and 2017 assembly elections) – as long as the parties are serious competitors. In Karnataka it failed to predict who will win the most vote share. In the forthcoming election, it needs to be seen if the larger trend remains. With this cautionary advice, let us look at how BJP is trending across all States.
First, let us look at States that are NOT going to an election. within that, we will compare BJP’s performance versus Congress and 3rd, we will compare two equivalent time periods (October 16-Nov 13, 2013 versus October 16-Nov 13, 2016)
1. Assam
BJP – 32
Congress – 22
BJP – 60
Congress – 42
BJP maintains steady advantage over Congress in Assam
2. Delhi
BJP – 28
Congress – 16
BJP – 57
Congress – 33
BJP maintains steady advantage over Congress in Delhi
3. Gujarat
BJP – 51
Congress – 22
BJP – 49
Congress – 32
The Gap betweeb BJP and Congresss has fallen but BJP still has a big lead over Congress
4. Haryana
BJP – 40
Congress – 22
BJP – 46
Congress – 31
The Gap betweeb BJP and Congresss has fallen but BJP still has a lead over Congress
5. Jharkhand
BJP – 22
Congress – 15
BJP – 42
Congress – 21
The Gap betweeb BJP and Congresss has increased
6. Karnataka
BJP – 62
Congress – 31
BJP – 21
Congress – 8
The Gap betweeb BJP and Congresss has increased but the overall intensity is down
7. Kerala
BJP – 39
Congress – 36
BJP – 69
Congress – 31
The Gap betweeb BJP and Congresss has substantially increased
8. Maharashtra
BJP – 36
Congress – 18
BJP – 60
Congress – 32
The Gap betweeb BJP and Congresss has remained Steady and in favour of BJP
9. Odisha
BJP – 25
Congress – 19
BJP – 49
Congress – 25
Substantial increase in gap between BJP and Congress
10. Uttar Pradesh
BJP – 56
Congress – 32
BJP – 63
Congress – 25
Substantial increase in gap between BJP and Congress
11. West Bengal
BJP – 38
Congress – 25
BJP – 68
Congress – 26
Substantial increase in gap between BJP and Congress
Overall Summary of the above 11 States – no major negatives for BJP. Positives in Bengal, Kerala, Odisha, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka. This is broadly in line with the various opinion polls. Let us now analyse tothe 3 election bound states
Chhattisgarh
BJP – 19
Congress – 6
BJP – 20
Congress – 19
Substantial drop in gap between BJP and Congress. BJP still has a slim advantage though.
Madhya Pradesh
BJP – 30
Congress – 19
BJP – 21
Congress – 23
Congress is ahead of BJP. Note that is the first of the States where Congress has reversed the lead.
Rajasthan
BJP – 13
Congress – 6
BJP – 11
Congress – 14
Congress is ahead of BJP. Note that is the second of the States where Congress has reversed the lead.
So Congress is ahead in two States and BJP in one. Google Trends is not God but this is an indicator of what BJP is up against in these two States. It remains to be seen if these leads hold until election day. In Chhattisgarh for example, Congress had a reasonable lead until the 10th and then it reversed. But Congress is much stronger in both Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Therefore, it needs to be seen if BJP can reverse the trend and win the election