Gujarat Opinion Poll 2022: Is Congress gaining Momentum?

Gujarat Opinion Poll 2022: Is Congress gaining Momentum?

Gujarat Opinion Poll 2022: BJP is likely to win 2/3rd majority in Gujarat as the Opposition vote share is likely to fragment between Congress and AAP

Gujarat Opinion Poll 2022 (Average of last 2 Polls): BJP: 114, Congress: 48, AAP: 16, Others: 3
Latest Gujarat Election Opinion Poll: BJP: 121, Congress: 42, AAP: 16, Others: 3

Google Search Share (7 Days Average): BJP: 44%, Congress: 26%, AAP: 30%

Social Media Sentiment: BJP: -13.7%, Congress: -10.6%, AAP: -17.5%

Crowdwisdom360 Prediction: Considering all the factors that are the latest Gujarat Election opinion poll, social media sentiment, and also the Google search volume, we predict BJP to return to power with a bigger majority than the last time.

When Is the Gujarat Assembly Election?

The Gujarat Assembly Elections are expected to be held in the month of December 2022. The BJP was expected to be led by CM Vijay Rupani in the 2022 Gujarat Elections under whose Chief Ministership the BJP had won the 2017 Assembly Elections.

However, the central leadership brought in a change in leadership, and in the upcoming Gujarat Election BJP will be contesting under the leadership of new Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel.

The exact date for the Gujarat Assembly election 2022 is yet to be announced by the Election Commission of India. However, the election is most probably to be held and completed by December end.

Gujarat Opinion Poll 2022 Predictions

Who is Leading?

  • Opinion Polls: BJP
  • Google Search: BJP (Congress is gaining Momentum)
  • Social Media Sentiments: Congress

Gujarat Election Opinion Poll: Observations and Insights

  1. The Saffron party is still the firm favorite to win the state due to the popularity of PM Modi in the state and the strong organization of the party despite ruling the state for more than 2 decades. The State continues to outperform the National average on Per capita income growth and is now gaining ranks after losing them under Modi (Yes, Gujarat lost ranks when Modi was CM)
  2. The biggest issues (as per Navbharat Times Poll) in Gujarat are Inflation (49%), Unemployment, Development, and Social conflict. Inflation is up by nearly 8%. Essentially, there is limited income growth in Gujarat, particularly so during the last 24 months, the COVID period.
  3. The Congress party is still in a state of chaos and is leaderless in the state. It is unable to even inspire enthusiasm among its own workers and leaders who feel that Delhi has given up on them and thus is unable to take advantage of any anti-incumbency. Its results in the recent municipal elections showcase the sad state of the party
  4. On the other hand, the AAP is enthused by the fact it came second in the Surat Municipal Corporation Elections. on its first try is doing everything it can to portray itself as the future of Gujarat and the only party which can defeat the BJP as the Congress has been in opposition for so long. The AAP is picking momentum in Rajkot, Vadodara, Surat, and Ahmedabad In Vadodara, AAP is gaining from both BJP and Congress. In Surat and Ahmedabad, both AAP and BJP are gaining from Congress
  5. The AIMIM too is taking large strides in Votes share of the Muslim community which is losing faith in the ability of Congress to win an election.
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Gujarat Election Opinion Poll 2022: Latest Polls

Average of All Polls
Congress Party48
Aam Aadmi Party16
Congress Party42
Aam Aadmi party16
India TV
Aam Aadmi Party16

Read: Lok Sabha 2024 Opinion Polls

The biggest gainer in the last 7 days is the Congress party.

Last 7 Days: BJP: 44%, INC: 26%, AAP: 30%

Last 30 Days: BJP: 48%, INC: 21%, AAP: 31%

Gujarat Election 2022: Social Media Sentiment

Social Media Sentiment: The social media sentiment for all three main political parties in Gujarat is negative. The net sentiment for AAP and INC has improved while the net sentiment for BJP has worsened.

Last 7 Days: BJP: -13.7%, Congress: -10.6%, AAP: -17.5%

Opinion Election 2022: Candidates List

Even before the Election Commission announced the dates for the upcoming Gujarat election, Aam Aadmi has come up with its first 3 lists of candidates for the upcoming election. Here is the full list of AAP candidates and constituencies:

A total of 38 candidates have been declared by AAP so far for the upcoming Gujarat election. BJP and Congress are yet to declare their candidates. Congress has asked interested candidates to send their bio data.

2022 Gujarat Election X Factor: The Rise of AAP

On 21st February 2021 elections to six Municipal Corporations- Ahmedabad, Surat, Rajkot, Vadodara, Jamnagar, and Bhavnagar- were held. The election saw overall voting of 41.2%. The results of the elections were declared on 23rd February 2021.

Aam Aadmi Party has been trying to make a political breakthrough in different parts of India. However, in the last 6-7 years it has been confined to Delhi and some parts of Punjab. However, as Congress is losing its grip over most of the states, AAP is gradually trying to fill the vacuum of opposition to the BJP.

Surat Municipal Corporation was one such example. SMC has a total of 120 seats. In 2015, BJP had won 80 seats while Congress had won 36 seats. This time BJP won 93 seats while Congress failed to open its account. AAP won 27 seats in Surat.

Gujarat Election Opinion Poll: Latest Cabinet

As per the survey by the Print: Patidar voters in Gujarat are not excited by the choice of Bhupendra Patel as Chief Minister. He is a Patidar but a Kadva Patidar, not a Leuva one.
Including CM Bhupendra Patel, the Gujarat Cabinet has 25 ministers. 10 are Cabinet Ministers, 5 are Ministers of State holding Independent Charge and 9 are Ministers of State:

Gujarat Election Opinion Poll 2022: Number of Ministers Based on Caste

Patel: 7
Koli Patel: 1
Jain: 1

Kshatriya: 2
Brahmin: 2
SC: 2
ST: 2
OBC: 6

Opinion Poll Gujarat 2022: Number of Ministers Based on Region

South Gujarat: 7
North Gujarat: 3
Central: 8
Saurashtra: 7

The entire cabinet of the previous CM Rupani was replaced. Like the CM, half the cabinet are first-time MLAs and most of the ministers(22) have had no prior experience of being a minister before they were sworn in.

As per reports, this was done to reduce the anti-incumbency which had been amassed by the previous administration due to its handling of the pandemic and the economy. Vijay Rupani was also seen as one who had lost touch with the cadre and also aloof from the Public.

Bhupendra Patel was elected from Anandiben Patel’s constituency and is seen as her loyalist in the party, Anandiben’s recommendation is one reason he was appointed as CM. Amit Shah’s appointee Rupani got a chance when Anandiben resigned and now Anandiben’s appointee has a chance.

The fact he is a Kadva Patel must have helped as no Kadva Patel has been the CM of Gujarat before and his being from Ahmedabad in Central Gujarat makes sure he won’t anger any castes like appointing a Patel from Northern Gujarat would have angered Thakores and Chaudhary OBCs.

In the new cabinet, caste equations have been rejigged to give more prominence to OBC and SC/ST communities. South Gujarat also has received a noticeable increase in its share at the cost of Saurashtra thanks to C.R. Patil the State BJP head.

Opinion Poll Gujarat 2022: Assembly 

The Gujarat Assembly has around 182 seats, 13 of which are reserved for SCs and 27 for STs. The BJP currently holds 112 MLAs in the Assembly and the Congress has around 65. Other smaller parties like the BTP and NCP have 2 and 1 MLAs respectively

Gujarat Opinion Poll 2022

Opinion Poll Gujarat 2022: Religious and Caste Composition

As per the 2011 Census, Gujarat is 88.57% Hindu, 9.67% Muslim, 1% Jain, and 0.70% Others. Gujarat is the state with the third-largest amount of Jains, after Rajasthan and M.P. in India

Gujarat Election Opinion Poll: Caste-wise:

Hindu UCs/Savarnas are 10-12 % of the state. They comprise Brahmins,Banias(2% each),Rajputs (at least 5%) and Lohanas. Then Patidars/Patels are 13-16%. They are an economically influential and powerful caste through the state. Patidars are divided into 2 main caste:- Leuvas and Kadvas.

OBCs are 40-42%. About 147 castes are on the OBC list. 20-22% of OBCs belong to 2 castes- Kolis/Thakores

STs are 15-16%. About half of all STs are Bhils. The category also includes Gavits, Pargis, and Dhodias. SCs are 7-8%.

Opinion Poll Gujarat 2022: How Congress Lost its Support Base In Gujarat?

The Congress party came to power in 1980 and 1985 with a resounding 142 and 149 seats under the stewardship of then CM Madhavsinh Solanki under the aegis of the strategy KHAM which was based on consolidating 4 communities- Kshatriyas(UC and OBC), Harijans(SCs), Adivasis(STs) and Muslims.

But for KHAM to work, it also demanded the ignoring of the Hindu UCs and Patidars. This turned most of them away from Congress and they gradually became the unwavering core of the BJP in the state till the Patidar Agitation for Reservation in 2015.

Following communal riots in the state in 1986 due to which Madhav Sinh Solanki was forced to step down, the KHAM coalition he had created and presided over began falling apart. And thus the INC lost the election in 1990 following which it could never win an election on its own.

The Ramjanmabhoomi movement strengthened the BJP among Hindu UCs and OBCs in the state.
The INC’s base too has weakened over time as the BJP has strengthened its base among OBC Kshatriyas(Thakores and Kolis) and STs too over 20 years of power in the state.

The INC does have many OBC and Thakore leaders and many Patel leaders too, but in the 2019 LS elections, most people in these communities voted for the BJP. The lack of united leadership and charismatic leaders to enthuse cadres and convince the people still shackles it. Its most loyal voters in the state are only Muslims and SCs today.

The AAP did well in Surat thanks to Patidars who were unhappy with the BJP and hadn’t been wooed by Congress. The AAP is still trying to grow in the state and hasn’t found the caste combination to grow. Yet the Gujarat AAP Leader Gopal Italia is a Patidar

Opinion Poll Gujarat 2022:  What Happened in the 2019 Lok Sabha Election?

In the 2019 General elections, The BJP swept Gujarat winning all the 26 seats out. Congress got 0. BJP got 62% vote share while Congress got 32% vote share. BJP saw an increase in vote share of about 2.10%.

Converting Lok Sabha seats into assembly segments, BJP led on 112 seats, Congress was leading on 65 seats and others were at 5 seats out of the total 182 assembly seats.

However, since the 2019 Lok Sabha election, BJP has flattered in almost every Assembly election therefore, relying on the Lok Sabha results to conclude the Assembly result would not be appropriate.

Opinion Poll Gujarat 2022: 2017 Opinion Polls

Most of the Opinion Polls predicted a clean sweep for BJP in the state. ABP News (Lokniti CSDS) predicted 1144-152 seats for BJP while 26-32 seats for Congress in its initial polling. However, the last polling number published by ABP News (Lokniti CSDS) on December 6, 2017, gave BJP 91-99 seats while Congress predicted 78-86 seats.

India Today-Axis My India Gujarat Election Opinion Poll for 2017 was 120-135 seats to BJP while 55-70 seats to Congress. Times VMR polls gave BJP 106-116 seats and for Congress, it predicted 63-73 seats.

Opinion Poll Gujarat 2022: 2017 Exit Polls

None of the agencies giving the Exit Poll numbers for the Gujarat 2017 election could gauge the mood of the people. All the polls gave BJP over 100 seats in the state. However final result was not what they had predicted. Here are a few Exit Poll numbers from Gujarat 2017 Assembly election:

Opinion Poll Gujarat 2022: ABP News (Lokniti CSDS):

BJP: 117 seats with 49% vote share, Congress 64 seats with 41% vote share while others were projected to win 1 seat.

Opinion Poll Gujarat 2022: TV9 C Voter:   

BJP: 109 with 52% vote share, Congress 74 seats with 39% vote share

Opinion Poll Gujarat 2022: Axis-India Today:

BJP: 99-113 with 47% vote share

Congress: 68-82 with a 42% vote share

Gujarat Election Opinion Poll 2022: VMR-Times Now:

BJP: 108-118 with a 48% vote share

Congress: 61-71 with a 41% vote share

Others: 0-3

Gujarat Election Opinion Poll 2022: Republic-JanKiBaat:

BJP: 115-130

Congress: 50-65

Others: 0-2

Gujarat Election 2022 Opinion Poll: What Happened in the 2017 Assembly election?

The last Assembly election which is the 2017 Gujarat election was the first election in Gujarat after Narendra Modi left Gujarat and took an oath as Prime Minister of India. After he left Gujarat things were never the same for BJP in the state.

Anandiben Patel took over the reign of Gujarat from Modi but due to her unpopularity party replaced her and gave Vijay Rupani charge of the state. For Rupani much was at stake in 2017. However, he proved his worth and gave BJP a much-needed win in the state.

The election result was very close as expected. BJP won 99 seats which was 17 seats down from 2012 and Congress won 79 which was 16 seats up from 2012. BJP got 49.05% vote share whereas Congress got 41%vote share.

Gujarat Election Opinion poll: What has changed since the 2017 Gujarat Election?

Since the 2017 Assembly election, state politics has witnessed many changes. The very next election after the Assembly election was Lok Sabha 2019 election, and BJP swept the entire state. Indian National Congress got a new working state president in Hardik Patel and Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party has started to make its impact in the state.

Recently, in Gujarat elections for 6 municipal corporations were held. BJP swept elections by winning all the six municipal corporations in Gujarat. The party won 483 out of 576 seats. The ruling party retained power in all the six municipal corporations in the state — Ahmedabad, Surat, Vadodara, Rajkot, Jamnagar, and Bhavnagar. BJP won 159 out of 192 seats in Ahmedabad, 68 out of 72 seats in Rajkot, 50 out of 64 seats in Jamnagar, 44 out of 52 seats in Bhavnagar, 69 out of 76 seats in Vadodara, and 93 out of 120 seats in Surat.

Indian National Congress was decimated as the party could manage to win only 55 seats. The new entrant Aam Aadmi Party was able to win 27 seats while AIMIM won 7 seats.

Swing Voter Factor

Bjp’s Vote share increased by 0.75 in 2017 as compared to 2012. However, Vote share did not translate into seats as BJP lost 16 seats. On the other hand, INC gained 0.85% and increased its tally by 16 seats. The majority of the Congress’s victories in 2017 were concentrated in Saurashtra and other “demographically favored” areas. This time, surveys suggest that the AAP will gain the majority of swing voters and 60% of those who now support Congress, which is expected to lose 22 seats.

Analysis of 2017 Opinion Polls

Most of the Opinion Polls predicted a clean sweep for BJP in the state. ABP News (Lokniti CSDS) predicted 144-152 seats for BJP while 26-32 seats for Congress in its initial polling. However, the last polling number published by ABP News (Lokniti CSDS) on December 6, 2017, gave BJP 91-99 seats while Congress predicted 78-86 seats.

India Today-Axis My India Gujarat Election Opinion Poll for 2017 was 120-135 seats to BJP while 55-70 seats to Congress. Times VMR polls gave BJP 106-116 seats and for Congress, it predicted 63-73 seats

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