Gujarat: BJP to lose Five Seats ?

Gujarat: BJP to lose Five Seats ? : Gujarat, a state that had dominance of BJP since past two decades sends valuable 26 MPs to lower house of Indian Parliament. It was the Gujarat model that made PM Narendra Modi a national figure. In 2014, BJP won its first ever majority in Lok Sabha because the voters believed the PM Narendra Modi, the then Chief Minister of Gujarat would bring Gujarat like development in entire nation. BJP proved its might over Gujarat by winning entire 26 Lok Sabha seats in 2014. Five years down the line, will BJP be able to repeat its feat once again? May be Yes! May be No!


Last election, that is Assembly Election of 2017, Congress recovered some ground against BJP with the help of 3 young leaders like Hardik Patel, Jignesh Mevani and Alpesh Thakor. Out of 182 assembly seats, BJP was able to manage a simple majority by winning 99 seats while Congress bagged 77 seats. Hardik Patel was the major tool in the hands of Congress party as he was able to divert Patidars, the main votebank of BJP, towards Congress. However 10% reservation to economically weaker persons of the society has weakened the movement that brought Hardik Patel to political centre stage. This step has satisfied the forward caste including Patidars, Brahmins and Kshatriya(rajputs,darbar and other forward castes.) This step may have been able to bring back  75 % of Patidars from Hardik’s fold. Thus, Hardik has gradually lost his relevance in Gujarat politics. Alpesh Thakor, the leader of Thakor Sena has already resigned from Congress while Jignesh Mevani is struggling to keep the support of SC community within its reach.


In assembly election, BJP won 99 seats while Congress won 77 seats, an MP constituency comprises of 5-7 MLA seats. So, on an average if we take 4 seats of BJP against 3 seats of Congress the we may be able to see that BJP looks stronger in every Lok Sabha seats. However, speculations are high that BJP may lose some seats in Gujarat due to anti- incumbency factor.


Government of Gujarat has introduced Ma Amrutam scheme. Under this scheme every resident of Gujarat having annual income of less than 5 lacs is entitled to get free medical treatment from government. In case of illness the card holder is entitled for free treatment and operations up to 5 lacs in all govt and designated hospitals. In addition, the patient is entitled for taxi journey to and from hospital. This scheme has a very positive impact on residents of Gujarat as medical treatment charges in hospitals is a major concern for middle class and poor families.

BJP has also been able to appease the salaried class by raising the income tax limit. For disgruntled farmers, the government has introduced an annual free grant of rupees 6000 as assistance for purchase of seeds and fertilizers. Many farmers have already received their first instalment in their accounts. The various government schemes has helped BJP retain some of its lost ground.


The election to 26 Lok Sabha seats of Gujarat are already over. Several predictions are doing round with respect the Gujarat election. We will try to analyse few of such predictions. We will first take into considerations few twitter predictions. We do not endorse these predictions however these tweets have been retweeted and liked most.

After analysing these surveys, it is clear that BJP has an upper hand Gujarat. If predictions are to be believed than, BJP may be heading towards clean sweep in Gujarat once again.


In Crowd’s Prediction, 64.10% of the respondent believe that BJP may win 21 or more seats.

Congress on other hand has support of about 44.6% respondents who believe that they may be able to win 4 or more Lok Sabha seats in Gujarat.


Since Modi took over the charge of Gujarat as its CM, Gujarat has turned into a “Saffron Fort”. There is saying now that if BJP loses Gujarat, it loses India. Prime Minister Modi’s home state have never disappointed him and BJP since he took over the charge of Gujarat as CM and now as PM of India. BJP is hoping to repeat 2014 streak once again by sweeping all the 26 seats of Gujarat. Will BJP be able to do so, will be clear on 23rd May, the Judgement Day. However speculations are high that BJP may lose some seats in Gujarat and Modi magic may fail in delivering entire state’s MP in favour of BJP.

Gujarat: Saffron Fort- Predictions

Picture Courtesy: Youth Incorporated Magazine

Read: India after Sixth Phase of Voting

Author: Nirmal Vachhani

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