High Voting Percentage is Advantage BJP ?
High Voting Percentage is Advantage BJP ? Voter Turnout is infact the most important indication of whether BJP will win or loose elections. Some months ago I had in detail explained about it.
The reason why BJP has historically done badly in bypolls be it the Lok Sabha ones or Karnataka or UP or any other state for that matter, BJP has done badly for the same reason !
That is why may be Modi today in his most of the rally warned about the consequences of low voter turn.
Stating a fact, Bangalore is known for it’s consistently low voter turnout. This has been the main reason for BJP not forming the Government in Karnataka. Low voter turnout in Bangalore gave an clear edge to opposition ! Undoubtedly it is those many Lazy Bengalurians (yes Lazy !) who prefer to stay at home who are responsible for the coalition government in Karnataka. Had BJP got slightly better Voteshare here, then we Kannadigas wouldn’t have been in such a situation.
My Grandmother who was almost 80, was paralyzed, couldn’t walk and couldn’t speak, was adamant on voting in 2014. Despite many requests from my grandfather,father, and mother not to vote (due to her paralytic condition) ,she was still adamant on voting. It was after seeing her intense desire to vote that I personally took her to the polling booth on a wheel chair despite resistance from the rest of the family. Sadly it was her last election. I will always be happy that I could help her cast her last vote !
Where as here in Bengaluru in 2018, especially the middle aged people did not come out and vote. Great ! And since there are 5 continuous holidays during the election time in Karnataka, God save democracy ! And I don’t care even if some Bengalurians get angry for me giving this great title to them. It is the harsh truth.
It was really good that Modi himself brought up this issue.
Some stats to back up my claim.
Many take the bypolls in UP as a “benchmark” to prove how BJP will do badly forgetting the voter turnouts ! Firstly there was very low voter turnout at a mere 43 % turnout in Gorakhpur . And in Phulpur it was even worse at mere 37%. So big disadvantage for BJP .
Coming to Phulpur , here also the same reasons hold good. Leave BJP , even BSP+SP combine could not retain their last time’s total votes.
Coming to Kairana here also , it is the same story . The voting percentage was 18% less than 2014 !
If more people had voted , the joint opposition could easily been defeated by BJP! since the joint opposition barely managed to retain votes and lost votes in absolute numbers when compared to 2014 inspite of the tall claims of Mahaghatbandhan ! High Voting Percentage is Advantage BJP
In 2017 bypolls in Karnataka, there were bypolls in Nanjangud and Gundulpet before the Karnataka Assembly elections of 2018. BJP lost badly in both of them. Come to 2018, BJP won both of them with clear majority !
Do you think Anti Incumbency could have come so quickly that congress would loose so badly just an year later ?
Then why Low Voter Turn is bad for BJP and good for Congress/Opposition?
The answer lies in Minority votes !
Let it rain heavily or even snow , the minorities votes are divided So Low Voter turnout always means Less have voted ! Which means heavy disadvantage for BJP !
I will borrow the voting percentages from Rajagopalan K Suryanarayan Sir.
As Sir pointed out, there is a slight decrease in voting percentages with respect to 2014. It was because of low voter turnout in 2009 that, not only BJP could not gain any seats but lost many seats which it could have won. Especially if you see electorally crucial UP, the voting percentage has come down by about 1.4%. And this region has very high minority population. It will impossible for BJP to win here (Western UP ) without Hindu consolidation.
So everything now depends on how much minority vote has been divided between Congress and Mahathugbandhan and how much the Jats have shifted away from BJP to RLD. These 2 are the biggest communities. In 2013, there was extremely huge Hindu consolidation here on the backdrop of Muzzafarnagar riots. This region can be called the Coastal Karnataka of the North since it is a very communally sensitive region like Coastal Karnataka.
Even this 1.4% can be huge since close contest was anyways expected here.
Hope more people come out and vote in large numbers like my Grandmother did, despite her very bad condition and not be like those Bengalurians who prefer to stay at home and enjoy their holiday and destroy the future of the country !
High Voting Percentage is Advantage BJP ?
READ: Lok Sabha 2019 Predictions
AUTHOR- Skanda Venugopal, A BJP Supporter
Pic Courtesy: english.tupaki.com