I predicted 2019 right and here is what I think should happen next
April 24thwas the day that I came to a firm conclusion that 2019 elections was a done deal. Everyone in the traditional & social media were skeptical about the numbers that BJP would throw up by May 23rd. Some of the experts were optimistic in giving the 250 to 260 range and many of my media friends were calling it lesser than that around 210-220.
There was buzz in the media that Priyanka Vadra would contest at Varanasi forcing Modi to spend more days there and many from Luytens Media started to call this as a boring and wave less election.
But with minimum losses in the first 2 phases came the Phase 3 on April 23rdindicating a clean sweep at Karnataka and the crumbling of GB at UP, super showing at Bihar and a fight for life at Bengal.
There went my prediction on April 24th2019 by 6:12 pm that on its own
BJP would win 302+. It is providence that I am proven wrong by just 1 seat. Happily, BJP’s final tally is at 303.
Phase 3 was a turning point. My logic was if BJP can’t be defeated in the first 3 phases which were the Opposition’s strongholds then what would happen when the BJP Juggernaut starts. I expected that there would be a meltdown. Oh! Dear that’s what the result shows.
My Prediction then was and it got sustained so much so that I had tweeted Modi on May 8ththat BJP would be 302+.
On the day of exit polls by 4:31 pm IST I had predicated BJP 302 + and Congress 53. Results are rest of the story. My predictions were on Bulls Eye.
Cut to the Present:
Now that Modi 2.0 is here to stay let us look ahead than to look behind.
The first agenda politically is to win Assembly elections of Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand and settle the politics of Karnataka. I feel it would be better to face elections in Karnataka than to opt for Operation Lotus. Then comes the preparations for the big elections of Bengal. I believe Bengal would be a 24*7 agenda for Modi-Shah duo. It should be that way because of the investment of time, energy and resources in this election. The results of that are to be seen. My prediction of 302+ was based on the fact that BJP would win 19 to 24 seats in Bengal. It ended at 18 but still it was noteworthy. Obviously the most important agenda is Governance from now on. If the Ujwala Yogna, Sauchalaya schemes, Jan Dhan Yogna, Awas Yojana & etc won Modi the 2019 elections then let us see the Agenda for 2024.
1. Jal Sakthi – Piped Water for all is going to be the main slogan from now onwards. On May 23rdNitin Gadkari spoke on the importance of Waterways and how he is going to focus on the Godavari-Krishna link to Tamil Nadu. If water problem is solved at places like Tamil Nadu then there is no need for even campaigning by BJP. Water problem has been perennial since 1980 in Tamil Nadu. No political party has been able to find a permanent solution for this. If BJP can achieve this it would be a double whammy for them. Solving water problem through Jal Sakthi is not only a gateway to Tamil Nadu politically but also a major milestone for Prime Minister Modi in several states including Maharashtra, Telangana and Madhya Pradesh which has been facing drought and farmer related issues for decades. Jal Sakthi should be the first thing in priority for Modi Version 2.0. It’s a good point to start with Governance which would yield enormous political dividends for Modi and BJP in states like Tamil Nadu which do not have any BJP presence in 2019.
2. Doubling Farmer Income and Pension scheme for Farmers as mentioned in the Sankalp Patra should be done immediately.
3. Southern states should be the sunrise areas for BJP and hence specific things like setting up of Navodya Schools in Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu & Kerala without Hindi being made compulsory should provide enormous goodwill and political benefits.
4. Kerala has been a nonstarter for BJP in 2019 but conserving the traditions and culture of Sabarimala should be up taken by BJP in a sincere manner which leads to a logical conclusion. This would be a political masterstroke as well as balm for the Right-Wing supporters of BJP. Sabarimala and Ayodhya are two important cultural standpoints which Modi 2.0 should deliver for a mandate which can be 400 + for BJP in 2024.
5. JOBS, JOBS & JOBS – This is being done as per the Government but jobs should be generated more and the data must be available in the open domain so that the Opposition does not have any chance to raise this issue.