India 1 Million COVID Cases: 5 Disappointing Trends
India 1 Million COVID Cases: India is likely to breach the 1 million COVID cases mark today becoming only the 3rd country to do so. The fact that India is the second largest country means that we are only ranked 106 on cases per million population and 101 on deaths per million population. So in many ways the lockdown has succeeded in keeping India’s cases and death in control. So why are we talking about disappointing trends?
The simple fact of the matter is that most Indians are anxious
So it is clear that unless the pandemic is fixed quickly, people will end up as mental wrecks whenever this thing ends.
So India 1 million covid cases happened despite one of the earliest and most aggressive lockdown across all countries.
India 1 Million COVID Cases: 5 Disappointing Trends
1. Many Indian States have reduced levels of testing, as a consequence, positivity rate is up
India’s Case Positivity, which means how many have been found positive out of 100 tests has increased from 6.2% on 23rd June to 7.6% two days ago. Higher the positivity, lower the testing being done. There was a similar trend for Delhi until Amit Shah Intervened.
On 1st June, Positivity rate for Delhi was: 21% (12 days before Amit Shah Intervened)
On 12th of June, Positivity rate for Delhi went upto 36% (Two days before before Amit Shah Intervened)
On 12th of July , Positivity rate for Delhi was:7.4% (One month After Amit Shah Intervened)
The rapid rise in testing (4x times) has not only reduced the positivity, it has also slowed down the absolute number of cases that were found. On June 12th, 2137 cases were found, it was 1573 cases on July 12th.
2. South India Out of Control
The Southern States apart from TN were all doing well until they decides to aggressively open up earlier than other States.
Yesterday, AP reported 2432 cases (All time high), Karnataka reported 3176 cases (all time high), Kerala reported 623 cases (all time high), Tamil Nadu reported 4496 cases (Second to all time high) and Telangana reported 1597 cases . The 5 southern States together reported a whopping 12324 cases or 38% of National Cases. They make up for just 20% of India’s population
3. Hindi Belt too Surging
Uttar Pradesh hit an all time high of 1659 cases yesterday, Bihar reported 1320 cases yesterday, second highest till date, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand together reported more than 500 cases, highest till date. Jammu Kashmir alone reported 493 cases, second highest after June 7th.Haryana reported 678 cases, close to the highest ever of 699 cases. Rajasthan Government which is busy in politics a reported a massive 866 cases, all time high. Madhya Pradesh reported 638 cases, second highest till date
4. East and North East are also surging
Apart from Bihar and Jharkhand which are hitting all time highs, Odisha reported 618 cases, second highest till date, Bengal reported 1589 cases, second highest till date, Assam reported a massive 1038 cases, second highest till date.
So basically as the States opened up across the country, cases have surged putting pressure on lockdowns again. And on top of that, inspite of all the opening up and surge in cases, the economy is still not in control
5. Economy out of control
While rural India appears to have recovered somewhat given it is the Kharif season now, the overall economy is not in great shape. Exports (Excluding Petroleum) which appeared to have recovered somewhat in June was still lower than 2017. This was reported yesterday. India’s manufacturing PMI continues to contract and so did the large service sector.
India 1 Million COVID Cases: What next?
Across the country, pace of opening has slowed down again. Bangalore has gone into lockdown again and many people continue to stay indoors. In the meanwhile the British are reporting that anti-bodies fighting COVID fall within 3 months, suggesting that a second wave is quite possible. A Vaccination is only expected early next year. So there is a fear of a devastating spanish flu kind of second wave, something that the US confirmed yesterday
While the Governments may be satisfied with what they are doing and many of us are satisfied that we are not losing as many people as rest of the world, the reality is that the current state of affairs is not sustainable. The Governments across the country have to up the game. Currently they are batting like it is 20th to 40th over, what Indians would prefer is that this be the slog over and match ends quickly!
