India China Face Off : Why war is unlikely?

India China Face Off : India and China have been engaged in never ending border dispute. China has claimed different parts of Indian territories, including parts of Uttarakhand, Arunachal, Ladakh to be part of their territory. It must be remembered it is not just parts of Indian territory but China has illegally occupied Tibet and also claims Taiwan to be its part. However, despite claiming of Indian territories since 1975 there has been no bullet fired from both sides nor there has been any casualty since then.

The incident of 15^th June or recent India China Face Off in Galwan Valley changed the entire narrative between India and China. For the first time since 1975, both the sides reported loss of lives due to territorial dispute. Even though a single bullet was not fired, India lost 20 soldiers including an Commanding Officer and China suffered about 35 to 43 casualties including an officer too.

Ever Since the India China Face Off in Galwan Valley there has been a tense situation and both China and India blaming each other for border intrusion. However, since then China has been trying to pacify the situation and has been putting more efforts to solve the matter through diplomatic channels.

Chinese Foreign Spokesperson Zhao Lijian said, “The sovereignty of the Galwan valley area has always belonged to China. The Indian border troops flip-flopped and seriously violated our border protocols on border-related issues and the consensus of our commander level talks. We ask India to strictly discipline its frontline troops, stop infringing and provocative activity at once, work with China and come back to the right track of resolving the differences through dialogue & talk.”

Why India China Face Off is unlikely to lead to war?

Both the sides seems to have agreed to resolve the matter through a diplomatic channel. It must be noted that both China and India, even after having 100s of differences are unlikely to go for a full blown out war and the reasons for that are:

1. War between India and China will be economically disastrous for both the countries. China is India’s largest trading partner. Total trade between both the countries accounts for about $84 billion annually. India imports goods worth $64 Billion from China while it exports from India to China is about $16 billion annually. War between two countries will hurt both countries
2. India and China are both nuclear weapon countries with 2.8 billion people between them. China is the world’s most populous country while India being 2^nd. Any war may result in unprecedented loss of lives on both sides.
3. Due to Coronavirus world has started ignoring China. China is blamed by countries around the world for hiding information about Coronavirus initially. Any military misadventure by China will lead it be shamed worldwide which could lead it to the fate of Soviet Union.
4. China’s communist party will never prefer an open war. Since 1948, China had never had an open war. China’s military is considered to be one the most unprofessional ones. China knows India is no more 1962’s India. Going in an open war with India will be a setback for the Communist empire of China.
5. On India’s end, it knows that the economy is more important for survival of country. Due to COVID-19, India economy has been hurt badly. In such situation a war will cast a shadow on future of nation. Therefore, India is more likely to cool down and adopt a diplomatic channel to solve the situation.

India and China are two economic giants of world. Both the countries are trying hard to be a world leader. India China Face Off in Galwan Valley has hurt the relation between both the nation. War may not be a solution to solve the issue rather it will make the situation hostile. Leadership of both the countries know that if in case a war breaks out both the countries will have more to lose than gain.

Read: India China Face Off : India lost 20 while China lost 43, Read this on Dailyhunt here