Lok Sabha 2024 Opinion Polls: Nitish Kumar To Be Opposition’s PM Candidate In 2024?
Lok Sabha 2024 Opinion Poll: NDA: 362 Seats, UPA 97 Seats, and Others 84 Seats (Latest Indian Election Prediction 2024)
Google Search Share: BJP 59%, Congress 41%
Social Media Sentiments: BJP 31.7%, Congress 26.2%
In 2014, Narendra Modi and his political party Bhartiya Janata Party won the Lok Sabha election. BJP on its own won 282 seats while the coalition, NDA won a total of 336. It was the first time since 1984 that a party had won enough seats to govern without the support of other parties. BJP on its own got a 31% vote share which was the lowest by any party winning majority on its own since independence.
India Lok Sabha Election 2024 Prediction Table
|Who is Leading?|
|Social Media Sentiments||Congress|
In 2019, after being in power for 5 years, Narendra Modi and his political party went into for polls once again. After five years of anti-incumbency, the political pundits hoped BJP to emerge as the single largest party but none expected it to win a majority on its win. But the election result came as a shock for all. Bhartiya Janata Party won the election and this time with a much bigger mandate. On its own, Narendra Modi-led BJP won 303 seats and the BJP lead coalition NDA (National Democratic Alliance) won 353 seats. Rahul Gandhi-led Congress was once again decimated. They managed to win only 52 seats on its. BJP managed to improve their vote share too, from 31% in 2014, BJP now got a 37.36% vote share.
For Narendra Modi and his party, Bhartiya Janata Party, the next challenge will be the 2024 Lok Sabha election. Going into the election, Modi will have 10 years of anti-incumbency behind him. His party will be defending 10 years of work done by Narendra Modi. Therefore, will Narendra Modi Win Record 3rd Term?
Lok Sabha 2024 Opinion Polls: Crowd’s Opinion
Lok Sabha 2024 Opinion Poll: Crowd’s Prediction
Lok Sabha 2014 and 2019 was a fight between Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi. But Rahul Gandhi has not been able to pose any threat to the political dominance of Narendra Modi. For the 2024 Lok Sabha election, state leaders like Mamata Banerjee, and Telangana CM K Chandrashekar Rao have expressed their willingness to lead the opposition front in 2024.
For Rahul Gandhi, before the 2024 Lok Sabha campaign kicks off, he will have a couple of state elections to prove his might. 4 important state elections of Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Chattishgarh and Rajasthan will be a litmus test for Mr. Gandhi. In all the four states, Congress had formed their Government after the election but after the defection of their MLAs, they lost Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh.
If Congress is able to win all the four states again, it will veto the leadership of Rahul Gandhi and the opposition parties would be bound to back him for 2024 Opposition leadership. However, as of now, Mr. Gandhi’s future as the main opposition leader looks bleak. Our latest survey shows that 55% of the respondents believe, Rahul Gandhi will opt out as PM Candidate in 2024 while 31% believe that Rahul Gandhi will be the opposition’s PM candidate in 2024.
However, our survey on probable Prime Minister Candidate of the opposition has Rahul Gandhi ahead of the rest of the leaders. Over 40% of the respondents believe that Rahul Gandhi should be the opposition’s PM Candidate. Arvind Kejriwal is 2nd on the list with Mamata Banerjee at a distant third.
Note: These are our initial survey results, the preference may change as we move ahead.
Lok Sabha 2024 Opinion Poll: Landscape of 2024 Lok Sabha Election
The following landscape of the 2024 Lok Sabha election has been shared by Political Analyst Amitabh Tiwari (Twitter: @politicalbaba):
|Contest Between||No. Of Seats|
|BJP vs INC||190|
|BJP vs Regional Parties||185|
|INC vs Regional Parties||71|
|Regional Party vs Regional Party||97|
Lok Sabha 2024 Opinion Poll: Latest Opinion Poll
|India TV Opinion Poll 2024-Matrize News||July 29th|
|NDA (Bhartiya Janata Party+)||362 Seats|
|UPA (CNational Congress+)||97 Seats|
Lok Sabha 2024 Opinion Poll: Statewise Prediction by India TV Opinion Poll 2024
Gujarat: Total 26, NDA 26, UPA 0.
Maharashtra: Total 48, NDA 37, UPA 11.
Goa: Total 2, NDA 2.
Rajasthan: Total 25, NDA 25.
Madhya Pradesh: Total 29, NDA 28, UPA 1.
Chhattisgarh: Total 11, NDA 10, UPA 1.
West Bengal: Total 42, NDA 14, UPA 2, Others (TMC) 26.
Bihar: Total 40, NDA 35, UPA 5.
Jharkhand: Total 14, NDA 13, UPA 1.
Odisha: Total 21, NDA 11, UPA 2, Others (includes BJD) 8.
Himachal Pradesh: Total 4. NDA 4.
Punjab: Total 13, NDA 3, UPA 3, Others (includes AAP) 7.
Haryana: Total 10, NDA 9, UPA 1.
Jammu & Kashmir, Laddakh: Total 6, NDA 3, UPA 0, Others 3.
Delhi: Total 7, NDA 7, UPA 0, Others 0.
Uttar Pradesh: Total 80, NDA 76, UPA 2, Others 2.
Uttarakhand: Total 5, NDA 5, UPA 0.
Telangana: Total 17, NDA 6, UPA 2, Others (includes TRS) 9.
Andhra Pradesh: Total 25, NDA 0, UPA 0, Others (includes YSRCongress) 25.
Karnataka: Total 28, NDA 23, UPA 4 Others 1.
Tamil Nadu: Total 39, NDA 1, UPA(includes DMK) 38, Others 0.
Kerala: Total 20, NDA 0, UPA 20, Others 0.
Tripura: Total 2, NDA 2, UPA 0.
Assam: Total 14, NDA 11, UPA 1, Others 2.
NE states: Total 9, NDA 7, UPA 1, Others 1.
Rest UTs: Total 6, NDA 4, UPA 2, Others 0.
Lok Sabha 2024 Opinion Poll: About the Election
The tenure of the current Lok Sabha which is the 17th Lok Sabha will come to an end on June 16th, 2024. Therefore, the Election Commission of India will have to hold the Election for the 18th Lok Sabha before the term of the current Lok Sabha ends.
The Indian lower house of the Parliament, which is the Lok Sabha has a total of 543 seats. Each seat is filled by the members from the 543 Lok Sabha constituencies spread across the Indian states and Union Territories. For any political party or for any political coalition to form their government, will have to win 272 seats. A party failing to win 272 seats on its own can will have to rely on its coalition to win a minimum of 272 to form its government.
Lok Sabha 2024 Opinion Poll: Result of Last LS Election (Seats and Vote Share of Top 10 Parties)
|Seats Won||Vote Share|
|Bhartiya Janata Party||303||37.3%|
|Indian National Congress||52||19.46%|
|Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam||24||2.34%|
|YSR Congress Party||22||2.53%|
|Janata Dal (United)||16||1.45%|
|Biju Janata Dal||12||1.66%|
|Bahujan Samajwadi Party||10||3.62%|
|Telangana Rashtra Samithi||9||1.25%|
|Lok Janshakti Party||6||0.52%|
|Total Seats in Lok Sabha||543|
Indian Election Prediction 2024: Google Trends
Indian Election Prediction 2024: Google Trends
Indian Election Prediction 2024: Social Media sentiments, BJP vs Congress
Indian Election Prediction 2024: Social Media sentiments, Modi vs Gandhi
Indian Election Prediction 2024: Has Any Leader Won Record 3rd Term?
Before Narendra Modi became the Prime Minister of India, India had 13 Prime Ministers. However, only two Prime Ministers have been elected for three consecutive terms. The first one was the first Prime Minister of India Jawahar Lal Nehru and the second one was his daughter Indira Gandhi. None other than Nehru and Indira Gandhi have been able to win more than 2 consecutive terms.
Jawahar Lal Nehru won the 4th term but was unable to complete his 4th term as he died during his 4th tenure as Prime Minister of India.
Indian Election Prediction 2024: What are the Factors Favoring Narendra Modi for 2024 Re-election?
The factors favoring Narendra Modi’s re-election in 2024 are:
- TINA (There Is No Alternative)
The TINA factor has been one of the major factors that helped Narendra Modi cruise through the 2019 Lok Sabha election. The same seems to be turning out to be a major factor that may help Narendra Modi win the consecutive 3rd. As of now, the public is yet to be convinced by any of the opposition faces who could be an alternative to Narendra Modi in 2024.
- Divided Opposition
After the 2014 Lok Sabha election, there have been talks about opposition unity. But the opposition unity has been more hype than reality. In 2019, a Mahagathbandan was formed to take on Narendra Modi and his party BJP. But by the time the Lok Sabha election in 2019 came, the Mahagathbandan looked more like an alliance between a few parties than the mega opposition coalition. The same turned out to be true even for the 2024 Lok Sabha. The opposition has more faces who are eyeing the Prime Minister’s chair and none want to compromise despite all having the same common enemy, Narendra Modi.
The other main factor that the opposition in India lacks is funding. BJP is not short of funds and with power in major states of India, they can contest any election with a huge might. The opposition on the other hand does not have enough funds to take on the mighty BJP. Though they may show the intent of defeating Narendra Modi and the BJP, the funding issue will keep their campaigning to limited reach and BJP will be able to spread their message to the majority and the message will be loud and clear.
Indian Election Prediction 2024: Latest Video
Indian Election Prediction 2024: What is the Prediction for the 2024 Lok Sabha election?
There has been no opinion poll or prediction for the 2024 Lok Sabha election therefore it would be too early to say who is going to win the Lok Sabha election. However, several indicators point toward the return of the Narendra Modi Government in 2024. One such indicator is the state election. It is said that the road to 7 Lok Kalyan Marg goes through Lucknow. Recently an election was held in Uttar Pradesh along with 4 other states. Uttar Pradesh is the largest state in terms of population in India and it sends massive 80 Lok Sabha members.
Since 2017 BJP has been in power in Uttar Pradesh. The opposition hoped to topple the BJP government in the 2022 Vidhan Sabha election so that they would get a major boost for the 2024 Lok Sabha election. However, despite all the hypes, the opposition claims fell flat and BJP on its own won the majority. Added to it, BJP retained the states of Uttarakhand, Manipur, and Goa too.
Another indicator of Modi’s return in 2024 is the recently concluded Presidential election. The opposition came up with a joint candidate to take on BJP’s candidate. However, BJP and NDA despite being short of a majority on their own were able to get over 60% support for their candidate, Draupadi Murmu. The opposition unity fell flat as many from the opposition voted in favor of the NDA candidate.
Indian Election Prediction 2024: Conclusion
The 2024 Lok Sabha election is still two years from now and several state elections are to take place before it. If the opposition is to defeat Narendra Modi and BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha election they will have to win most of the upcoming Vidhan Sabha election. The state that will go for election before the 2024 Lok Sabha election in Gujarat, Himachal, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh, Tripura, Nagaland, and Meghalaya. Barring Rajasthan and Chattisgarh, the rest of the states have either BJP government or a BJP coalition government. The opposition needs to win a maximum of these states in order to keep their hopes high for the 2024 Lok Sabha election.
Therefore, considering the several factors, it can be said that Narendra Modi may be able to return to power once again unless the opposition comes together and place a strong face against him.
India Lok Sabha Election 2024 Opinion Poll: States Elections To Be Conducted Along With LS 2024
Along with the Lok Sabha election in 2024, a few states will also be going to the polls to elect their new Government. The states where elections will be held to elect their new Government are:
- Arunachal Pradesh, Current Government: BJP Chief Minister: Pema Khandu
- Sikkim, Current Government: SKM Chief Minister: Prem Singh Tamang
- Odisha, Current Government: BJD Chief Minister: Naveen Patnaik
- Andhra Pradesh Government: YSR Congress Party Chief Minister: YS Jagan Mohan Reddy
Lok Sabha 2024 Opinion Poll: State Election Prediction (Data by India TV)
Himachal Pradesh Opinion Poll (68/68)
BJP: 47 [+3]
Congress: 17 [-4]
AAP: 01 [+1]
Rajasthan Opinion Poll: (200/200)
Jharkhand Opinion Poll (81/81)
Maharashtra Opinion Poll (288/288)
Shinde Sena: 41
Uddhav Sena: 18
Bihar Election Opinion Poll (243/243)
BJP – 81
JDU – 38
RJD – 83
INC – 11
Others – 29
Chhattisgarh Opinion Poll: (90/90)
West Bengal Opinion Poll: (294/294)
Uttar Pradesh Opinion Poll (403/403)
Madhya Pradesh Opinion Poll (230/230)
BJP: 119 [+10]
INC: 98 [-16]
Others: 13 [+06]
The states of Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh are set to go for polls later this year. As per the latest opinion poll, BJP is set to retain both states. In both the states, BJP will be able to improve its seat tally. Congress may be decimated in both the states while in Gujarat Aaa Aadmi Party is set to make inroads.
Lok Sabha 2024 Opinion Polls: Polls for the Upcoming State Elections
Gujarat Election Opinion Polls 2022
WeePreside: BJP 128 Seats, Congress: 36 Seats, AAP 7 seats, Others 1 seat
Lok Poll: BJP 119 seats, CongressL 57 seats. AAP 1 seat. Others: 5 Seats
India Tv: BJP: 108 [+09], Congress: 55 [-22] AAP: 16 [+16] Others: 03
The upcoming Gujarat Assembly election is looking to be a cakewalk for the ruling BJP as per the latest Gujarat Election Opinion Polls. Almost all the Gujarat Election Opinion Polls have given BJP over 100 seats with the maximum being 128 seats and the minimum is 108 seats.
Congress on the other hand will be restricted below 60 seats. The maximum seats that Congress could win in Gujarat are 57 seats while the minimum number of seats is 36.
Aam Aadmi Party is set to make an entry in Gujarat with a maximum number of seats that it could win being 16 while the minimum number of seats being just 1.
Gujarat Election Opinion Polls 2022: Latest Polls
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