Jagan loses some momentum in Andhra Pradesh but it is still advantage YSRCP

Jagan has been sailing quite comfortably over the last few months. But it appears Feb second half and March have not been that kind. Here is the evidence

1. Seat Predictions (Click Here to predict the AP Assembly Election 2019)

YSRCP – 91 (Down from 100 one month ago)

TDP – 68 (Up from 59 one month ago)

2. We ask two other questions on how many seats YSRCP and TDP will win

% who think YSRCP will win more than 96 seats (Predict YSCRP Performance in AP Assembly Election 2019)

Jan – 46%
Feb – 64%
Mar – 50%

% who think TDP will win more than 80 seats (Predict TDP Performance in AP Assembly Election 2019)

Feb – 41%
Mar – 44%

3. On our Portal, we ask Party support, that trend has also changed

YSRCP vs TDP Supporter Trend

Jan: YSRCP to TDP ratio, 2.12
Feb: YSRCP to TDP ratio: 1.84
March: YSRCP to TDP ratio: 1.77

4. Lastly, on Google Trends

Jan 2014: TDP: YSCRP Ratio: 2:1

Jan 2019: TDP: YSCRP Ratio: 1.9:1

 

Feb 2014: TDP: YSCRP Ratio: 2.3:1

Feb 2019: TDP: YSCRP Ratio: 1.4:1

 

Mar 2014: TDP: YSCRP Ratio: 2:1

Mar 2019: TDP: YSCRP Ratio: 2.3:1

 

In Sum

1. YSCRP is performing better than TDP on all our predictions, so it still has the advantage for AP Assembly Election 2019

2. On Google Trends: It performed very well in February, so overall 2019 is better than 2014

3. Second half of Feb onwards, YSCRP has been losing momentum, across all sources

One important learning from Telangana election is that TRS too lost momentum a month before the election. However, November onwards they went all blazing so a diminishing trend cannot be read as YSCRP heading for defeat. It is still an uphill task for TDP though it is clear that it is not game over for them yet.