Bengal Election 2021 Exit Poll: Will it be TMC again or will it be BJP?

Bengal Election 2021 Exit Poll: Will it be TMC again or will it be BJP?
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BJP set to form government in Bengal as per the Bengal Election 2021 Exit Poll.

The final phase of Bengal Assembly election 2021 concluded on 29th April and the Bengal Election 2021 Exit Polls are out.

Both BJP and TMC claim to have won maximum seats. However, which party has won maximum seats will be decided on 2nd May. As of now he is the summary of Exit polls of Bengal election:

The Bengal Exit Poll for 2021 Assembly election shows change of government in the state. As per the Bengal Exit Poll 2021 Prediction by Crowdwisdom360, BJP may win 149 seats while TMC may win 129 seats.

With voting for last and final phase of Bengal election coming to an end today, the fate of Bengal has been sealed in EVM. However, before the results are published on 2nd May, we have conducted a survey after the voting in most of the districts of Bengal. As per our assessment, Mamata Banerjee may fail to rule Bengal for the third time.

Our Bengal election exit poll show change of government in state. As per our poll, BJP may win 149 seats while TMC may win 129 seats.

Here is the summary of the Bengal Election Exit Poll for 2021 Assembly election:

BJP
TMC
Left+Congress
Crowdwisdom360
149
129
Ankit Sharma- University Poll 
160
118
14
ABP C Voters
115
158
18
Republic Bangla
143
133
16
Goa Chronicle Protect Core
167
95
10
Jan Ki Baat
173
112
6
India Today- Axis
147
143
1

Bengal Election Exit Poll: Google Search Phasewise

In Phase 1: BJP: 72%, TMC: 28% 

In Phase 2: BJP: 71%, TMC: 29% 

Phase III: BJP: 62%, TMC: 20%, 2019,

Same Seats BJP: 75%, TMC: 12%

Phase V: On Day of Voting for 5th Phase 17th April

BJP: 57.5%, TMC: 20.6%

During 2019 Lok Sabha Election, Same seats

BJP: 64.9%, TMC: 12.8%

Bengal Election Exit Poll: 6th Phase Google Search

On Day of Voting for 6th Phase 22nd April

BJP: 57%, TMC: 19%

2019, Same seats
BJP: 72%, TMC: 18%

So far this election
BJP: 59%, TMC: 20%

2019
BJP: 64%, TMC: 17%

Bengal Election Exit Poll: 7th Phase Google Search

On Day of Voting for 7th Phase 26th April 
BJP: 55%, TMC: 26%, Gap: 29%

Same Seats 2019
BJP: 71%, TMC: 14%, Gap: 57%

So far this election
BJP: 59%, TMC: 20%

2019
BJP: 64%, TMC: 17%

Bengal Election Exit Poll: Latest News for 8th Phase of Bengal Election

Money Control: Prime Minister Narendra Modi asked people to vote following the COVID protocol.

News18: The state of West Bengal recorded 16.04 percent voter turnout till 9am today for the eight and final phase of the assembly elections.

NDTV: Mithun Chakraborty Votes In Last Phase Today

Exchange4Media: I-PAC’s Facebook ad spend highest this year

Bengal Election Exit Poll: Estimation by Prashant Kishore, Mamata Banerjee’s Election Strategist

BJP: 40%

Left-INC: 10-15%

Others (last 2 elections average): 12%

Therefore, TMC: 33% to 38%

Note: TMC can only win if ‘Others’ reduces to 6%

Bengal Election Exit Poll of Last Election
Polling Agency AITC Congress + Left NDA Others
ABP News–Nielsen16312614
India Today-Axis2434443
Times Now–CVoter16712043
News 24–Today’s Chanakya2107014 –
NDTV18410352
BRACE-News Time-খবর ৩৬৫ দিন2147235
Bengal election Exit Poll 2016
Bengal Election 2021 Exit Poll: Key Analysis of Bengal Assembly Election 2021
Bengal Election 2021 Exit Poll

1) Anti Incumbency against State Govt:

After 2019 results, TMC was on sticky wicket because of “Cut-Money” Issue & then BJP did a mistake by shifting the Narrative to NRC, so anti i/c took a backseat. But there’s a Resentment among people on Corona & Amphan Management though we don’t know the extent of this till this period ends but it’s also true that BJP leaders were seen no where in Lockdown Period

2) Organizational Strength:

BJP has grown Organizationally since 2019, but TMC has not weakened either and hence it is advantage TMC. But if BJP can get Suvendu Adhikari on Board then Election will be wide open

3) Anti Incumbency against Central Govt:

This is Restricted to Urban Areas only.

4) If Not Mamata Then Who?

Though Opposition lacks CM Face, TMC hasn’t been able to Capitalize into this issue wholly

5) BJP Wave in the State:

After 23rd May many people believed that TMC govt will not survive till 2021 & even if they survives, they will surely get defeated in 2021. Then the By Elections took place & this Wave Evaporated.

6) NRC CAA

Results of By Elections proved that, NRC benefited TMC but BJP has able to neutralise this a bit after enactment of CAA. Violence Created by Muslims helped BJP to continue their Propaganda.

Bengal Election 2021 Exit Poll: Polling and Result Date

West Bengal Assembly election will be conducted in 8 phases starting from 27th March. Result will be declared on May 2nd.

Here is the break out of election dates district wise:

(1) 27th March: 2020 District of Purulia, Some assemblies Bankura 1, Jhargram, Some assemblies of Medinipur :  30 Constituencies –

(2) 1st April:  Bankura 2 , Medinipur 2, South 24 Pargana 1: 30 Constituencies 

(3) 6 April:  Howrah 1 , Hooghly 1 and South 24 Pargana 2:  31 Constituencies

(4) 10 April: Howrah 2 , Hooghly 2 , South 24 Pargana 3 , Alipurduar , Cooch Behar : 44 Constituencies

(5) 17 April: North 24 Pargana, Nadia1, Purba Bardaman1, Darjeeling , Kalimpong, Jalpaiguri: 45 Constituencies

(6)  22nd April: North 24 Pargana 2, Nadia 2,Purba Bardaman,Uttar Dinajpur : 43 Constituencies

7) 26 April: Malda 1, Murshidabad 1, Paschim Bardaman, Kolkata  South, Dakshin Dinajpur: 36 Constituencies

(8) 29th April: Malda 2, Murshidabad 2, Bhirbhum, Kolkata North: 35 Constituencies

Read: Bengal Election 2021 Opinion Poll here

Also Read : Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll 2021: AIADMK+ winning Tamil Nadu Election?

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Ashokekumar Mukherjee
Ashokekumar Mukherjee
1 year ago

TMC will form Government with 205-225 MLAs in the Assembly.Bjp will be the poor third with less than 40 MLAs.Left and Congress will do better.

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