Latest Opinion Polls Australia 2022: Results and analysis

Latest Opinion Polls Australia 2022: Results and analysis

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To read our analysis on the Federal Elections, read on..

Latest Opinion Polls Australia 2022: How did the polls perform?

Primary Votes:
Liberal/National, Polls: 34.8%, Result: 35.8% (Error: 1.0%) -Very Good
ALP, Polls: 34.4%
, Result: 32.6% (Error: 1.8%)
Greens, Polls: 12.2%, Result: 12.1% (Error: 0.1%)

TPP Votes
Liberals/National, Polls: 47.2%, Result: 48.2% (Error: 1.0%) – Excellent
ALP, Polls: 51.6%, Result: 51.8% (Error: 0.2%)

Google Search was very accurate in forecasting the results. It showed a drop in both the Coalition and ALP’s performance with the Greens gaining

Crowdwisdom360’s Prediction: Small Labor Majority, Result: Small Labor Majority

Read on for detailed analysis and insights

Insights and Observations, 22nd May

  1. This was the most important chart in the election

It showed Morrison underperforming significantly versus 2019 but Albanese was not outperforming Bill Shorten by much. Contrary to mainstream analysis that voters wanted to focus on different issues, Mr. Albanese’s inability to offer clear and decisive leadership is one reason why Labor struggled on the primary vote. But voters were quite angry with Mr. Morrison to give him a second chance, so their TPP vote went to Labor. In simple words, Labor won because of a Coalition default.

2. ALP performance in various states

Swing for or against the ALP
NSW-1.2%
Vic-4.0%
QLD+1.3%
WA+7.5%
SA-0.5%
TAS-6.0%

3. Seats that shifted parties

Shifted fromShifted to
BoothbyCoalitionALP
ChisholmCoalitionALP
HasluckCoalitionALP
HigginsCoalitionALP
PearceCoalitionALP
ReidCoalitionALP
RobertsonCoalitionALP
SwanCoalitionALP
TangneyCoalitionALP
GriffithALPGreens
RyanCoalitionGreens
CurtinCoalitionIndependent
FowlerALPIndependent
GoldsteinCoalitionIndependent
KooyongCoalitionIndependent
MackellarCoalitionIndependent
North SydneyCoalitionIndependent
WentworthCoalitionIndependent

Polls Australian Federal Election 2022, 21st May

Primary Votes

DateLiberal/NationalALPGreen Party
Average21st May34.8%34.4%12.2%
Roy Morgan19th May34%34%13%
Newspoll19th May35%36%12%
Ipsos18th May35%36%13%
Essential Poll17th May36%35%9%
Resolve Strategic17th May34%31%14%
Error in 2019 Polls-2.8%+2.6%-0.2%
2019 Actual Results18th May41.4%33.3%10.4%
2019 Polls Average18th May38.6%35.9%10.2%

TPP Vote Share

Date of PollLiberal/NationalALP
Average21st May47.2%51.6%
Roy Morgan19th May47%53%
Newspoll19th May47%53%
Ipsos18th May47%53%
Essential Poll17th May46%48%
Resolve Strategic17th May49%51%
Error in 2019 Polls-3.1%-3.1%
2019 Actual Results18th May+51.5%+48.5%
2019 Polls Average18th May+48.5%+51.5%

Roy Morgan Polls: Differences between 2022 and 2019 Australian Election Polls

Liberals/National PartyAustralian Labor PartyAustralian Greens
21st May 202232%53%15%
18th May 201939%54%7%

Australian Election 2022 Polls: Will Scott Morrison shock everyone with another ‘Miracle’ Comeback?

Social Media Sentiment Analysis

Liberal/ CoalitionLabor/ ALP
21st May-27.8%-22.0%
ALP Lead in 2022ALP Lead in 2019Trend
Federal+21%+15%Higher
New South Wales+22%+12%Higher
Victoria+20%+20%Steady
Queensland+25%+21%Higher
Western Australia+32%-2%Higher
South Australia+25%+21%Higher
Tasmania+42%+22%Higher

Newspoll 2022: Differences between 2022 and 2019 Australian Election Polls

Latest Opinion Polls Australia 2022: Seats won by ALP in 2019 and Marginal Seats

StateSeats won by ALPMarginals held by the Coalition (<6%)
New South Wales243
Victoria216
Queensland64
Western Australia53
South Australia51
Tasmania22
Australian Capital Territory30
Northern Territory20
Total6819

Australian Federal Election 2022 predictions, Morrison vs Albanese

Google Search Analysis

Scott MorrisonAnthony Albanese
Past Day70%30%
May 18th, 201954%46% (Bill Shorten)

Social Media Sentiment Analysis

Scott MorrisonAnthony Albanese
21st May-29%-14%

Australian Election 2022 Polls, Betting Odds, 21st May

Liberal CoalitionALPPredicted WinnerTrend
SportsbetOdds: 3.8Odds: 1.3ALPCoalition Downgrade on Election Day
LadbrokesOdds: 4.0Odds: 1.33ALPCoalition Downgrade on Election Day

[If you wish to contribute with insights on the Australian Federal Election, write to us at subscriptions@crowdwisdom.live]

Australian Election 2022 Polls: Election Videos, 21st May

Labor leader Anthony Albanese makes final pitch to voters | 9 News Australia

YouTube video

Prime Minister Scott Morrison makes final pitch to voters | 9 News Australia

YouTube video

Latest Opinion Polls Australia 2022: Election News, 21st May

  1. Still undecided? As the countdown begins here’s your complete guide to how Australia will change if Anthony Albanese becomes the next PM – and what Scott Morrison vows to do if he wins a second term
  2. The key seats that will determine the outcome of the federal election
  3. Federal Election 2022 Live Updates: Polls open; Labor favourites but all results still possible; Huge pre-polling turnout
  4. Australian federal election 2022: Labor seeks court injunction to remove ‘fake’ election signs, as Morrison and Albanese campaign on polling day
  5. From holidaying in Hawaii while the country burned to forced handshakes, delayed vaccines, awkward photo ops, and not knowing the price of bread: ALL Scott Morrison’s gaffes and and bungles that could cost him reelection
  6. Sturt in play, along with Boothby, as South Australia heads to the polls in the federal election

Top 10 awkward moments of the 2022 Federal Election campaign | 9 News Australia

YouTube video

Latest Opinion Polls Australia 2022: Latest Tweets, 21st May

Australian Election 2022 Polls: Seats Distribution Each State and Territories Wise

StateSeatsChange
New South Wales47Steady
Victoria39Increase 1
Queensland30Steady
Western Australia15Decrease 1
South Australia10Steady
Tasmania5Steady
Australian Capital Territory3Steady
Northern Territory2Steady
Total151Steady

Australian Election 2022 Polls: Last Election Result

The election for the 46th Parliament of Australia was held in May 2019. The election was called after the dissolution of the 45th Parliament of Australia. The election was held for all the 151 seats of the lower house (House of Representatives) and 40 of the 76 seats of the Upper House.

The result of the election did not throw a clear mandate for any of the individual parties. Labor emerged as the single largest party with 68 seats while Liberal won 44 seats. Liberal National secured 23 seats. After the election, a coalition government of Liberal and Liberal-National was formed. Scott Morrison was elected as the Prime Minister of Australia for the 2nd consecutive term.

Australian Election 2022 Polls: Election Procedure

The Australian Federal Election is held after every 3 years. The Prime Minister of Australia decides the date of the election which could be anytime within the 3 years term.

A total of 151 members are elected to the lower house of Parliament, the House of Representatives.

  • Each member is elected to the lower house through preferential voting.
  • Voters are required to write their preferences in the box beside every name in the ballot box.
  • To be declared a winner, a candidate needs to win more than half of the preference votes.
  • If a candidate is able to win an absolute majority of first preference votes, they win the seat.
  • Suppose no candidate is able to gain an absolute majority of first preference votes. In that case, the candidate with the least number of votes is excluded and their votes are distributed among the second preference.
  • Redistributing votes according to preferences continue until one candidate receives more than 50 per cent of the vote.

To know the elaborate process of date declaration, follow this link.

Latest Opinion Polls Australia 2022

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