Latest Opinion Polls Australia 2022, Results Update: ALP – 72, Coalition – 52

Latest Opinion Polls Australia 2022, Results Update: ALP – 72, Coalition – 52
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Results Updated from Multiple Websites

ALP
Coalition
Others
Official Results (Tallyroom)
72
52
12
76
60
15
72
55
13
75
58
10
71
55
13
66
41
9
Latest Opinion Polls Australia 2022: The Numbers on 21st May

Primary Votes: Liberal/National 34.8%, ALP 34.4%, Greens 12.2%. The Coalition is polling 3% lower than the 2019 Polls

TPP Votes: Liberals/National 47.2%, ALP 51.6%. The Coalition is polling +1.2% lower than the 2019 Polls

[The 2019 polls missed Coalition estimates by 3.1% and Over-estimated ALP by 3.1%].

A 3% swing (Adjusted for 2019 error) in TPP Votes towards ALP will deliver more than 75 seats to Labor

Sportsbet.com.au betting data suggests that the Coalition is likely to win between 66 and 70 seats while Labor will win between 71 to 80 seats.

Google Search: The Gap between Labor and the Coalition is 23%.It was 15% in 2019.

Social Media Net Sentiment: The gap between Morrison and Albanese is 24%, it was 20% on 15th May.
Net Social Media sentiment at party level, Labor are +6% ahead of the Liberals.

Betting:
Labor is ahead at the moment by a smaller margin than 3 days ago

Overall Prediction: Small Labor Majority

Read on for detailed analysis and insights

Insights and Observations, 21st May

  1. 7.1 million Australians had already voted by the evening of 20th May
  2. In Queensland and Victoria, 45% of the enrolled voters had already voted before today. This was only 38% in Western Australia and 31% in Tasmania
  3. On Google Search, ALP is performing at the same level as in 2019 while the Coalition is significantly underperforming in 2019. ALP has larger leads across most states.
  4. Betting companies are leaning on an ALP lead with 71-80 seats while predicting between 65 to 70 seats for the Coalition. The odds of the Coalition NOT forming the next Government have increased significantly today.
  5. Polling companies are leaning towards a close primary vote contest and a comfortable TPP vote win for the ALP.
  6. All Polls are predicting serious vote losses for the Coalition but ALP is not the biggest gainer of these losses.
  7. While the Coalition may have done a good job of the economy as a whole, Scott Morrison’s image is one of the biggest challenges for the Coalition. In 2019, an Ipsos poll reported that 48% approved of Scott Morrison while 43% did not approve of him. In the latest Ipsos poll, 51% did not approve of the Prime Minister. In 2019, Scott Morrison enjoyed a 10 point lead over Bill Shorten. In 2022, He trails Albanese by 13 points. See chart below
image 211

7. On the other hand, Anthony Albanese is outperforming Bill Shorten by just 1 point. In fact, on preferred PM, Anthony Albanese is just 2 points higher than Bill Shorten. The only good news is just 37% of voters disapprove of Mr Albanese versus 48% for Bill Shorten in 2019.

The real question is will voters shift to smaller parties and independents or prefer Labor at the time of voting. Labor needs a 3% shift to form the Government. The Coalition is likely to lose more than 3% of the votes versus 2019.

Polls Australian Federal Election 2022, 21st May

Primary Votes

Date
Liberal/National
ALP
Green Party
Average
21st May
34.8%
34.4%
12.2%
19th May
34%
34%
13%
Newspoll
19th May
35%
36%
12%
18th May
35%
36%
13%
17th May
36%
35%
9%
17th May
34%
31%
14%
Error in 2019 Polls
-2.8%
+2.6%
-0.2%
2019 Actual Results
18th May
41.4%
33.3%
10.4%
2019 Polls Average
18th May
38.6%
35.9%
10.2%

TPP Vote Share

Date of Poll
Liberal/National
ALP
Average
21st May
47.2%
51.6%
19th May
47%
53%
Newspoll
19th May
47%
53%
18th May
47%
53%
17th May
46%
48%
17th May
49%
51%
Error in 2019 Polls
-3.1%
-3.1%
2019 Actual Results
18th May
+51.5%
+48.5%
2019 Polls Average
18th May
+48.5%
+51.5%

Are the Polls accurate this time?

Our analysis suggests that polls may be under-estimating the Coalition’s primary vote but could be far more accurate on the TPP vote.

Here is what the polls are reporting this year.

Primary Swing
TPP Swing
Gap between TPP and Primary Swing
Essential 2022
-5.4%
-5.5%
-0.1%
Resolve 2022
-7.4%
-2.5%
+4.9%
Newspoll 2022
-6.4%
-5.5%
+0.9%
Roy Morgan 2022
-7.5%
-4.5%
+3%
Ipsos 2022
-12%
-8%
+4%

In 2022, the polls are predicting a gap ranging from 0.1% to 4.9%.

Election-eve leak shows cabinet committee blocked plan to double support to Pacific | The World

Roy Morgan Polls: Differences between 2022 and 2019 Australian Election Polls

Liberals/National Party
Australian Labor Party
Australian Greens
32%
53%
15%
39%
54%
7%

Australian Election 2022 Polls: Will Scott Morrison shock everyone with another ‘Miracle’ Comeback?

Social Media Sentiment Analysis


Liberal/ Coalition
Labor/ ALP

21st May
-27.8%
-22.0%
ALP Lead in 2022
ALP Lead in 2019
Trend
Federal
+21%
+15%
Higher
+22%
+12%
Higher
+20%
+20%
Steady
+25%
+21%
Higher
+32%
-2%
Higher
+25%
+21%
Higher
+42%
+22%
Higher

Newspoll 2022: Differences between 2022 and 2019 Australian Election Polls

Latest Opinion Polls Australia 2022: Seats won by ALP in 2019 and Marginal Seats

State Seats won by ALP Marginals held by the Coalition (<6%)
New South Wales 24 3
Victoria 21 6
Queensland 6 4
Western Australia 5 3
South Australia 5 1
Tasmania 2 2
Australian Capital Territory 3 0
Northern Territory 2 0
Total 68 19

Minor parties will ‘decide the election’

Path to victory: the seats that will decide the 2022 federal election

Australian Federal Election 2022 predictions, Morrison vs Albanese

Google Search Analysis

Scott Morrison
Anthony Albanese
70%
30%
54%
46% (Bill Shorten)

Social Media Sentiment Analysis

Scott Morrison
Anthony Albanese
21st May
-29%
-14%

Australian Election 2022 Polls, Betting Odds, 21st May

Liberal Coalition
ALP
Predicted Winner
Trend
Odds: 3.8
Odds: 1.3
ALP
Coalition Downgrade on Election Day
Odds: 4.0
Odds: 1.33
ALP
Coalition Downgrade on Election Day

[If you wish to contribute with insights on the Australian Federal Election, write to us at subscriptions@crowdwisdom.live]

Australian Election 2022 Polls: Election Videos, 21st May

Labor leader Anthony Albanese makes final pitch to voters | 9 News Australia

Prime Minister Scott Morrison makes final pitch to voters | 9 News Australia

Latest Opinion Polls Australia 2022: Election News, 21st May

  1. Still undecided? As the countdown begins here’s your complete guide to how Australia will change if Anthony Albanese becomes the next PM – and what Scott Morrison vows to do if he wins a second term
  2. The key seats that will determine the outcome of the federal election
  3. Federal Election 2022 Live Updates: Polls open; Labor favourites but all results still possible; Huge pre-polling turnout
  4. Australian federal election 2022: Labor seeks court injunction to remove ‘fake’ election signs, as Morrison and Albanese campaign on polling day
  5. From holidaying in Hawaii while the country burned to forced handshakes, delayed vaccines, awkward photo ops, and not knowing the price of bread: ALL Scott Morrison’s gaffes and and bungles that could cost him reelection
  6. Sturt in play, along with Boothby, as South Australia heads to the polls in the federal election

Top 10 awkward moments of the 2022 Federal Election campaign | 9 News Australia

Latest Opinion Polls Australia 2022: Latest Tweets, 21st May

Anthony Albanese on Twitter: “Campaigning with Michelle Ananda-Rajah and Senator @JanaStewartVIC in Higgins this morning. Happy Election Day Australia. pic.twitter.com/njMkJtCl8e / Twitter”

Campaigning with Michelle Ananda-Rajah and Senator @JanaStewartVIC in Higgins this morning. Happy Election Day Australia. pic.twitter.com/njMkJtCl8e

Australian Election 2022 Polls: Seats Distribution Each State and Territories Wise

State Seats Change
New South Wales 47 Steady
Victoria 39 Increase 1
Queensland 30 Steady
Western Australia 15 Decrease 1
South Australia 10 Steady
Tasmania 5 Steady
Australian Capital Territory 3 Steady
Northern Territory 2 Steady
Total 151 Steady

Australian Election 2022 Polls: Last Election Result

The election for the 46th Parliament of Australia was held in May 2019. The election was called after the dissolution of the 45th Parliament of Australia. The election was held for all the 151 seats of the lower house (House of Representatives) and 40 of the 76 seats of the Upper House.

The result of the election did not throw a clear mandate for any of the individual parties. Labor emerged as the single largest party with 68 seats while Liberal won 44 seats. Liberal National secured 23 seats. After the election, a coalition government of Liberal and Liberal-National was formed. Scott Morrison was elected as the Prime Minister of Australia for the 2nd consecutive term.

Australian Election 2022 Polls: Election Procedure

The Australian Federal Election is held after every 3 years. The Prime Minister of Australia decides the date of the election which could be anytime within the 3 years term.

A total of 151 members are elected to the lower house of Parliament, the House of Representatives.

  • Each member is elected to the lower house through preferential voting.
  • Voters are required to write their preferences in the box beside every name in the ballot box.
  • To be declared a winner, a candidate needs to win more than half of the preference votes.
  • If a candidate is able to win an absolute majority of first preference votes, they win the seat.
  • Suppose no candidate is able to gain an absolute majority of first preference votes. In that case, the candidate with the least number of votes is excluded and their votes are distributed among the second preference.
  • Redistributing votes according to preferences continue until one candidate receives more than 50 per cent of the vote.

To know the elaborate process of date declaration, follow this link.

Read: Florida Governor Race 2022 Polls: DeSantis Favorite to be Re-Elected

Latest Opinion Polls Australia 2022

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