Maharashtra Assembly Election 2019 : BJP to win Majority on its own
Maharashtra Assembly Election 2019: One crore job by next five years, 1 trillion-dollar economy and houses for all by 2022, BJP’s manifesto or Sankalpapatra read for the state of Maharashtra if they come to power once again. 2019 Maharashtra election is few days away. On 21st October, state of Maharashtra will either vote in favor of 5 year of work done by Devendra Fadnavis government or will vote against it. However, before the election day high political drama has stated to unfold in the state. Be it the Aarey protest or the allegation against NCP heavyweight Praful Patel having link with Dawood man Iqbal Mirchi in land deal, the political temperature in state is gradually rising.
2019 Lok Sabha: An Analysis
2019 Lok Sabha proved to be a complete disaster for Congress and NCP in the state. The alliance was reduced to single digit in state. Congress-NCP together could win only 5 Lok Sabha, to add to disaster, Congress could win only 1 Lok Sabha seat in the state. On the hand, BJP-Sena alliance swept the state winning 41 seats. BJP bagged 23 Lok Sabha seats while Shiv Sena won 18 seats. Once again both the saffron parties are coming together for the upcoming Assembly election. The ground reports seem to favor the alliance however BJP which is contesting of 164 seats wants to win the state with majority on its own while Shiv Sena expects BJP to fall short of majority so that they can push their hard bargains before they come together to form the government.
How Congress-NCP Plans for Comeback?
From waiving property tax to promising allowance of Rs. 5000 for the unemployed youth. NCP-Congress alliance is in no mood to give up the fight against the mighty saffron alliance in the state. With youths in mind, the alliance even promised a minimum salary of Rs. 21000 a month for workers if voted to power in Maharashtra. The Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP which fought the 2014 Maharashtra Assembly Election separately, know that if they fail in this election, their existence in the state politics may be matter of concern. Shiv Sena is working hard to occupy the space of main opposition to BJP in the state. Thus, for Congress-NCP alliance this election may be last battle of Panipat in the state.
Where the Parties Campaign Stand?
BJP has introduced its heavyweights in Maharashtra Assembly poll campaigning. With PM Modi, UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath campaigning, the ruling party is not leaving any stone un-turned. Shiv Sena on other hand though in alliance with BJP, is busy targeting both BJP and Congress-NCP in its poll campaigns. Congress on the other hand is banking on its former National President Rahul Gandhi. Mr. Gandhi is his poll campaign did again introduce his old Rafale allegation against Narendra Modi and his government. In Maharashtra Election, the party that one must not ignore is Prakash Ambedkar’s VBA. In Lok Sabha election, VBA contested in an alliance with AIMIM and was able to bag 7% vote share. If the party is able to increase its vote share to 10%, it is going to hurt in larger extent to Congress and to some extent to BJP. Assaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM which garnered less than 1% vote share in Lok Sabha 2019 in state is hoping to grab the larger chunk of Muslim votes which accounts to almost 12% in state.
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Analysis of Opinion Polls
The opinion poll published by ABP News-C Voters in the month of September shows that BJP-Sena alliance will comfortably form the government once again in Maharashtra. The alliance as per the opinion poll is expected to go past 200 seats. On the other hand, Congress-NCP alliance may be reduced to only 55 seats grabbing 30% vote share as per the opinion poll.
On our prediction platform, almost 74% of the respondents believe that NCP-Congress alliance will win more than 50 seats in upcoming assembly election in Maharashtra. However, 75% of the respondents believe that Sharad Pawar’s NCP will more seats than Congress in the state.
The Google Trend data for the last month clearly show that BJP is way ahead in the state. However, Congress and Shiv Sena looks to be on fighting to become number two in the state.
Outcome
The upcoming Maharashtra Assembly Election 2019 may change the political scenario of state completely. For the first time a member of Thackre family is contesting an election. Sena though in an alliance wants to have someone from their party as Chief Minister of the state. This may be the reason Thackre scion Aditya Thackre is contesting from Worli Assembly. BJP on the other hand is completely sure of Devendra Fadnavis continuing as Chief Minister after election. Thus, the Maharashtra Assembly Election 2019 may create a new rung of leadership or the election may result in having two Saffron parties in Ruling as well as main opposition in state.
Nitesh Singh
Photo courtesy: The Print
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