Maharashtra Predictions after Phase 4
Let us start with CrowdWisdom360’s Maharashtra Predictions and then look at what some in the Crowd are saying on twitter
Coming to our prediction market, the INC-NCP prediction of 12 to 15 seats has performed healthily
Here is how the Chart is looking for the last one month. The price has almost doubled but the overall volumes are half of the other top performing predictions.
On our prediction platform,
- More than 53% are expecting INC-NCP to win more than 16 seats. This is high by most standards.
- 72% are expecting BJP will win more than 18 Seats. This is also high. The only explanation can be that Shiv Sena will underperform and win about 12 seats.
- Our prediction platform appears to suggest that Shiv Sena may not win more than 12 seats. The base is quite low though.
A new prediction was launched today, NDA > 35 Seats.
Let us look at some of the key Maharashtra predictions on Twitter (around phase 4) of the elections. These are opinions of these handles and this article is not an endorsement of their predictions. Most have been retweeted, liked or commented much more than other such predictions.
Let us look at some of the key Maharashtra predictions on Twitter (around phase 4) of the elections. These are opinions of these handles and this article is not an endorsement of their predictions. Most have been retweeted, liked or commented much more than other such predictions.
In sum, there are wide range of predictions where UPA appears to be doing quite well in some and not doing well in other cases.
Why such Conflicting Predictions?
It appears that while there is broad consensus that NDA will do well in the large cities, the performance in the next tier cities and rural towns appears to have created uncertainty. This lack of consensus is unusual and usually seen in AP and Telangana.
There has been a massive focus on Infrastructure in all the major cities. This is quite satisfactory to citizens who are struggling with quality of life issues. However, on an average Maharashtra has underperformed all its Southern and Northern neighbours. Initial estimates suggest that a formidable state like Maharashtra lags both Karnataka and Telangana on per capita GDP. It was 5-10% ahead when Mr. Fadnavis took over as Chief Minister.
It is this conflicting performance that is contributing to wide range of predictions. It is likely that Maharashtra performance will surprise many on 23rd.
Read this detailed Maharashtra Predictions by Sourabh Garudkar who first published it on Quora