Modi and Shivraj begin Slog Over Batting

Prime Minister Modi and Shivraj Singh are batting like never before in recent times. In itself, the campaign looks intense. But the intensity is clearly visible when compared with past elections

Shivraj Campaign Intensity

The data from Google Trends has multiple facets. One it shows Congress ahead of BJP in 2018 unlike trailing in 2013. Second, it shows Shivraj trailed his own party in 2013, he is at the same level in 2018. CM Chouhan is running a very aggressive campaign to win another term in Madhya Pradesh. A little similar to CM Siddaramaiah in Karnataka. However, the Data seems to suggest that the BJP has hit a wall in terms of increasing vote share. What a high intense campaign can do is keep your loyalists to turn up on voting day. With no CM candidate projected, the Congress party is completely dependent on the Party brand rather than Individuals. That is a potential risk for the Congress Party

PM Modi Campaign

It is quite well known that the Prime Minister ran a very intense campaign in Karnataka perhaps dragging BJP from the mid 90s to 104. In Madhya Pradesh, it is even more intense

If one looks at lows at the volatility in Karnataka, it went from 100 to 58 and then from 97 to 59. In Madhya Pradesh it went 92 to 68, 100 to 75. The dips are smaller. While there are similarities in the campaign strategies, the BJP media teams are sustaining the PM Minister brand more intensely in Madhya Pradesh than Karnataka.

The Big Problem for BJP

With such an intensified campaign, the BJP is just about keeping in touch with the Congress party (which is performing way above 2013). One needs to see how this sustains over the next 5 days of campaigning but these are not good signs for the BJP. Both PM Modi and CM Chouhan will have to do a Dhoni-Kohli campaign to take their party over the line this year. In the meanhile Rahul continues to struggle against PM Modi. This could be a big risk for the Congress party.