North Carolina Senate Race Polls 2022: Will the Endorsement of Donald Trump help Tedd Budd Win GOP Primary?

North Carolina Senate Race Polls 2022: Will the Endorsement of Donald Trump help Tedd Budd Win GOP Primary?
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North Carolina Senate Race Polls 2022: Pat McCrory Favorite as GOP Nominee while Cheri Beasley Favorite to be Dems Nominee

The North Carolina Senate Race will be held on November 8th, 2022. The Primaries were due to be held on March 8th, but a ruling by the North Carolina Supreme Court has delayed them indefinitely over a challenge to the congressional maps passed by the GOP-held legislature earlier in 2021.

The maps are being challenged by Democratic-aligned groups partisan and racial gerrymanders. In the last decade, North Carolina’s map was struck down 3 times so this is not without precedent.

The court has ordered swift rulings and the timeline suggests that the court will come to a decision in January 2022, paving the way for primaries to be held later in the year to choose the nominees to run in the general election.

The seat, rated as Lean Republican by prognosticators, is now open after GOP Senator Richard Burr announced his retirement. This seat, along with the Pennsylvania Senate seat are the two most competitive open seats in 2022.

Read: Pennsylvania Senate Race 2022 Polls

North Carolina Senate Race Polls 2022: Candidates in the primaries

The Republican field is much more competitive than the Democratic side. Here are the candidates running in the primary.

Republican Candidates

  • Ted Budd, U.S. Representative for NC-13 (2017 – present)
  • Marjorie K. Eastman, Author and veteran
  • Pat McCrory, former Governor of North Carolina (2013–2017) and Mayor of Charlotte (1995–2009)

Democratic Candidates

  • Cheri Beasley, former justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court (2012–2020; Chief Justice 2019–2020)
  • Everette Newton, mayor of Beaufort (2017-2021)

Note: Republican House member Mark Walker had declared his candidacy for this seat in 2020 but dropped out in December 2021 after failing to win Trump’s endorsement. He had filed re-election for his house seat before candidate filing was paused by the Supreme Court.

Many nominees from the Trump world were also considered candidates including Donald Trump’s daughter-in-law Lara Trump and his chief of staff Mark Meadows. They both endorsed Ted Budd like the former president after declining to run.

Supreme Court Justice Beasley is the outright favorite in the Democratic primary. She lost re-election to her seat in 2020 by a mere 300 votes. Her impressive performance, outrunning both Biden and the Democratic nominee in the senate election has given Democrats hope that she is a strong nominee and could win this seat. 2008 was the last time the party won a Senate election in the state.

: Latest Polls

Republican Primary

Poll source
Date(s)
administered
Ted
Budd
Pat
McCrory
Mark
Walker
Undecided
Cygnal
January 7–9, 2022
19%
24%
7%
49%
Strategic Partners Solutions
January 5, 2022
21%
30%
8%
41%
WPA Intelligence
December 19–21, 2021
47%
43%
10%
Public Opinion Strategies
October 16–19, 2021
25%
40%
8%
Poll of Polls
Oct-Jan 2022
28%
34.25%
8%
33%

On the GOP side, only one poll has been conducted since Walker dropped out, it shows a competitive race between McCrory and Budd


The poll was conducted by WPA Intelligence but was sponsored by the Club for Growth PAC which has endorsed Ted Budd’s campaign. It shows a close race with Budd in the lead within the margin of error which stood at +/- 4.4% It was conducted between December 19 and 21 and sampled 504 likely Republican voters.

Google Trend Data for Republican Candidates for the Last 7 Days

image 216

Tedd Budd: 44% Pat McCory: 37% Mark Walker: 18%

The Google Trend data shows a close clash between the three Republican Primary candidates. In the last 7 Days, Tedd Budd has been slightly ahead of Pat McCory in terms of Google Searches and mentions.

Democratic Primary

No poll has been conducted since Jeff Jackson exited the race on December 16, 2021. The last poll conducted was done so on the behalf of Beasley’s campaign, showing her leading Jackson 39%-25%, back in early November. She is now the prohibitive favorite and should coast to the nomination whenever the primary is held.


North Carolina Senate Race Polls 2022: General Election


In 2016 this race was seen as competitive but Senator Richard Burr won by a larger than expected margin. While Trump won the state by under 4 points, Republican Burr won by 5.7. This time he is not on the ballot by Republicans.

Only one poll has been conducted in the general election. It was conducted by Redfield and Wilton Strategies on November 10, 2021.

Tedd Budd leads Beasley 40%-39% while McCrory leads her 42-40%. Both races are too close to call but the higher number of decided voters in the head-to-head with McCrory could owe to his higher name recognition.
This section will be updated with more polls once they come out as we move closer to the general election in November.

North Carolina Senate Race Polls 2022: Latest News

1. Republican U.S. Senate contest among the races impacted by primary date battle
2. ‘I Will Not Sit Quietly’: 3 Black Senators in Spotlight on Voting Rights

North Carolina Senate Race Polls 2022: Latest Videos

North Carolina is Likely to Lose GOP Gerrymandered Map

The Best Case for Senate Republicans in 2022

North Carolina Senate Race Polls 2022: Latest Tweets

Pat McCrory on Twitter: “Democrats want to federalize our elections and allow non-citizens to vote…a true disaster.We must defeat their radical agenda and use commonsense instead: require voter ID, like I did as Governor! / Twitter”

Democrats want to federalize our elections and allow non-citizens to vote…a true disaster.We must defeat their radical agenda and use commonsense instead: require voter ID, like I did as Governor!

Congressman Ted Budd on Twitter: “Glad to join @RepDonaldsPress on the Repeal CFPB Act.The CFPB is a textbook example of a federal agency that routinely overreaches it’s authority and completely lacks accountability. It should be repealed. https://t.co/9VuQdLVn93 / Twitter”

Glad to join @RepDonaldsPress on the Repeal CFPB Act.The CFPB is a textbook example of a federal agency that routinely overreaches it’s authority and completely lacks accountability. It should be repealed. https://t.co/9VuQdLVn93

North Carolina Senate Race 2022 Polls: Racial Demographics of the Voting Age Population (VAP

Demographic
Proportion
White-American
63.6%
Hispanic-American
8.9%
African-American
21.4%
Asian-American
3.7%
Native-American
2.8%


The data is from the 2020 census. It shows an increasingly diversifying state with a booming Hispanic population. As a deep-south state, it has a large African-American population, especially in the rural areas.

Democratic vote strength comes from minorities and urban areas especially the research triangle and the Charlotte metro area. Joe Biden won Mecklenburg county – home to 1.1m people – by 35 points, while Clinton only won it by 29. Republican strength is centered in the exurban county around Charlotte and Sandhill area.

Native Americans are a swing group in the state unlike Natives in other western states, who backed Biden is massive margins. Robeson county, which is 40% backed Trump by 18 after backing him by 4 in 2016.

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