Ontario Polls 2022: Conservatives gain in the final set of polls, all set for a majority again

Ontario Polls 2022: Conservatives gain in the final set of polls, all set for a majority again
Ontario Polls 2022

Vote Forecast: Conservatives 39.0%, Liberals 25.7%, NDP 23.9%, Greens 6.1%

The Conservatives gained 1.4% in just 4 days. Liberals lost 2.7% in the same period. Overall, NDP is the biggest loser compared to the 2018 election.


Surveys carried out as a combination of Phone and Online are forecasting 40% vote for the Conservatives, just 0.6% short of the 2018 result

Seat Forecast: Conservative: 78, NDP 26, Liberals 18

Google Search: The Polls are mirrored on Google search. NDP is the biggest loser with both the Liberals and Green party gaining from the NDP. On the leadership side, Doug Ford has a massive lead versus the rest.

Social Media Sentiment: While the Conservatives are most likely to win, Doug Ford is struggling with a -40% score on Social Media primarily because of the large pool of ‘progressive’ voters in Ontario

Read on for Insights that go beyond polls to Google Search Data as well as Social Media Sentiment.

The 2022 Ontario General Election is scheduled to be held on June 2nd, 2022.

Ontario Polls: Observations and Insights

  • Doug Ford is highly likely to return as Premier with almost the same number of seats and probably a lower vote share
  • The ‘Progressive’ pool in Ontario has remained almost constant, which is around 60% while the ‘Conservative’ pool continues to be around 40%.
  • According to Ipsos, Doug Ford was preferred by 34% of the voters in the last week of May 2018, he is preferred by 40% of the voters in the last week of May 2022. Ford is gaining in the GTA area, amongst those who make less than $40k a year and amongst those who make more than $100k a year
  • While the Conservatives are losing some votes, the NDP are bleeding a massive share of votes both to the Liberals as well as the Green party
  • Andrea Horwath has lost a significant share amongst women with many now preferring the Liberals or the Greens
  • The popularity of the Liberal Party in Ontario is higher than its leader, Steven Del Duca. In 2021, the popularity of Justin Trudeau among the ‘Progressive’ voters was higher than the party. This turned out to be an advantage Liberal Party in the Federal election. The Google trend data confirms our insight. (Scroll Down for the Google Trend Data). This could also be related to the diminished popularity of the Liberals on account of issues that have emerged after the 2021 election.
  • While the Liberals have gained some of the share lost in 2018, most of the gains have come from Women or those who are University Grads. Amongst those who make <$40k a year, the Liberals are underperforming in the 2018 polls.

Ontario Poll Tracker 2022

DatePCNDPLiberalGreen
Average of recent polls
[Swing versus 5 days ago]
June 1st39.0%
[+1.4%]
23.9%
[+0.9%]
25.7%
[-2.7%]
6.1%
[-1.1%]
AbacusJune 1st40%22%27%4%
IpsosJune 1st41%25%24%6%
NanosMay 31st38.8%24.7%26.3%6.1%
Mainstreet ResearchMay 30th35.4%23.9%26.2%9.2%
Leger Poll OntarioMay 30th40%24%25%5%
2018 Election ResultsJune 7th, 201840.5%33.6%19.6%4.6%

Average of recent Online Polls: Conservatives: 38.3%, NDP: 23.3%, Liberals: 26.4%, Green: 6.22%

Average of recent Telephone/Online Polls: Conservatives: 39.9%, NDP: 24.9%, Liberals: 25.2%, Green: 6.1%

Greg Lyle on Twitter: “This post is for polling nerds. How can two polls from the same firm show such a difference in the PC lead? Comparing online and phone on decided vote only, it looks like the phone poll shows more PCs than the online. It definitely shows a larger lead. #onpoli @cpsa_acsp pic.twitter.com/GcRkaMz6mn / Twitter”

This post is for polling nerds. How can two polls from the same firm show such a difference in the PC lead? Comparing online and phone on decided vote only, it looks like the phone poll shows more PCs than the online. It definitely shows a larger lead.

Ontario Polls 2022: Latest Seat Forecasts

DatePCNDPLiberalGreen
Average June 1st78
[+1]
26
[+0]
18
[+2]
1
[0]
Mainstreet ResearchJune 1st7423181
338 CanadaJune 1st7925191
2 Close to CallJune 1st8226151
EkosPoliticsJune 1st7630171
CBC Poll Tracker OntarioJune 1st7727191
2018 Election ResultsJune 7th, 2018764071

Ontario Polls 2022: Google Search Trends

Party wise Data

Progressive ConservativeNDPLiberal PartyGreen Party
June 2nd26%16%24%34%
June 1st24%16%24%36%
May 31st25%16%25%34%
2018 (Week before voting)23%65%11%1%

Leaders Data

Doug FordAndrea HorwathSteven Del DucaMike Schreiner
June 2nd58%17%22%3%
June 1st57%17%23%3%
May 31st58%17%23%2%
201851%17%31%1%

Doug Ford has had a very high Google search volume in the last 7 days while his party has the lowest Google search volume. Liberal Party of Ontario has a very high search volume.

Ontario Polls: Net Social Media Sentiment

Leadership Sentiments

When seen in conjunction with polling data as well as sentiment data, it is clear that voters are quite strongly polarized at least when it comes to the conservatives.

Doug FordAndrea HorwathSteven Del DucaMike Schreiner
June 2nd-35.4%-5.8%-8.1%+1.8%
June 1st-38.7%-16%-11%+3.4%
May 31st-39.2%-16.9%-12.2%-0.9%
May 30th-39.5%-17.5%-13.9%+0.2%

Party Sentiments

Progressive ConservativeNDPLiberal PartyGreen Party
June 2nd-14.6%-23.3%-31.6%+1.4%
June 1st-14.4%-25%-31.1%+1.8%
May 31st-19.6%-23.8%-30.3%+1.9%
May 30th-30.5%-22.6%-28.3%+1.6%

The net sentiment of the current premier, Doug Ford is the worst among the leaders of the rest of the party. But the Progressive Conservative Party enjoys a better reputation among the citizens of Ontario as per the data.

If we talk about NDP leader Andrea Horwath, her net sentiment is slightly better than the net sentiment for her party in Ontario.

The Liberal Party leader, Steven Del Duca has a high positive net sentiment but his party’s net sentiment is the worst among all the parties.

Ontario Poll Tracker 2022: Latest Videos

YouTube video

Ontario Poll Tracker 2022: Latest Tweets

Doug Ford on Twitter: “Thank you to everyone who came out to our rally in #Toronto tonight!We have the plan, we have the team, we have the momentum and together we will #GetItDone! Tomorrow, #VotePC! #ONPoli pic.twitter.com/IGfFckKI9L / Twitter”

Thank you to everyone who came out to our rally in #Toronto tonight!We have the plan, we have the team, we have the momentum and together we will #GetItDone! Tomorrow, #VotePC! #ONPoli pic.twitter.com/IGfFckKI9L

Steven Del Duca on Twitter: “The Italian-Canadian story goes to the heart of what makes us proud to call Ontario home. It’s a story I know well from my own family. On behalf of myself and the @OntLiberal Party, I wish the Italian community a very happy Republic Day. Buona Festa della Repubblica! pic.twitter.com/JUC7l1cw2c / Twitter”

The Italian-Canadian story goes to the heart of what makes us proud to call Ontario home. It’s a story I know well from my own family. On behalf of myself and the @OntLiberal Party, I wish the Italian community a very happy Republic Day. Buona Festa della Repubblica! pic.twitter.com/JUC7l1cw2c

Ontario Polls 2022: Latest News

Ontario Polls: Voteshare of Last Federal and General Election in Ontario

2018 was the last General election when Doug Ford from Progressive Conservative Party became the Premier of Ontario. Since 2018, Ontario has voted for Canada’s General election when Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party were able to retain the power. Here is the vote share comparison of each party in the last 2 elections:

ConservativeLiberalNDPGreen
201840.5%19.5%33.5%4.6%
2021 (Federal)34.9%39.3%17.8%2.2%

Ontario Election Polls 2022: What Happened In Last Election?

The last Ontario election was held on June 7th 2018 to elect the members of the 42nd Parliament of Ontario. The ruling Liberal Party were under the pressure of 15 years of anti-incumbency. The result of the election came as a thrashing for Liberal Party. After 15 years of rule, the Liberal Party was pushed to 3rd place as they could win only 7 seats, 48 seats less than what they had won in the last election.

The Progressive Conservative Party under the leadership of Doug Ford won the absolute majority in the Parliament of Ontario. from 27 seats in 2014, the PC won 76 seats, 49 seats more than their previous tally.

The New Democratic Party won 40 seats and was 2nd in the election. They had won 18 seats in the 2014 election. After the declaration of the result, Doug Ford went on to become the new Premier of Ontario.

Ontario Polls 2022

Read All Our Last Canada Election Reporting Here

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