PM’s 3rd speech response not as strong as first two
The Prime Minister, delivered his 3rd speech in the last than 3 weeks. We look at Google Trends and CrowdWisdom’s Crowd Tracker to establish the impact of these speechs
The first speech on Janata Curfew saw a spurt in google search for Narendra Modi with a peak of 80 on Google Trends on the 19th of March. On the CrowdWisdom360 Portal, the PM’s ratings on handling COVID 19 remained high at about 77. This is higher than his ratings on National Security which is his strongest point.
The PM’s second speech (on 24th March) as we know was a ratings knocokout (197 million watched it across various channels) with search peak of 100. Please note that the search index of 100 applies to a period of March 5th to April 2nd Only. On the CrowdWisdom360 Portal, the PM’s COVID-19 handling ratings saw a significant bounce to 83.
However, with no action for the next 8 days, search reduced to 38. On CrowdWisdom’s portal, the PM’s COVID-19 ratings fell to 76.
The PM’s 3rd speech on 2nd of April once again saw a bounce and the search index went up to 54 while the PM’s ratings on COVID-19 went up by just one point to 77. Both these performances were lower compared to the second speech. However, this is unlikely to negatively impact tonight’s light switch off plan
The PM’s search trends were not as high after the third speech as the action items had less relevance than the first two speeches. There was fear before the lockdown and with everyone in a lockdown for nearly 8 days, there wasn’t much expected from the third speech. It is likely that the 4th speech in perhaps a weeks time will see the biggest bounce in interest as most Indians would be curious to hear what the PM says about how we have handled things so far and what will happen to the lockdown?
Which States are Responding well and which are not?
After the first speech, the top 5 Large States that were searching for Mr Modi the most include
1. Rajasthan 2. Delhi, 3. Haryana, 4. MP, 5. UP
The Bottom 5 Large States include
1. Andhra, 2. Assam, 3. Kerala, 4. Odisha, 5. Chhattisgarh
After the second speech, the top 5 Large States that were searching for Mr Modi the most include
1. Rajasthan 2. MP, 3. UP, 4. Haryana, 5. Bihar, Delhi slipped out of the Top 5 to 6th
The Bottom 5 Large States
1. Kerala, 2. Odisha, 3. TN, 4. AP, 5. Assam, Chhattisgarh moving up while TN went down
After the Third speech, the top 5 and bottom 5 states remained the same
1. Rajasthan 2. MP, 3. UP, 4. Bihar, 5. Haryana,
The Bottom 5 Large States
1. Kerala, 2. Odisha, 3. TN, 4. AP, 5. Assam
The clear pattern in the states is whether they are native hindi speaking states or not. Native Hindi speaking States were more likely to respond positively to the PM’s speeches
Given that we are in the middle of what one can say is PM Modi’s biggest test since becoming Prime Minister, how do these trends compare to the past?
Looking at Google Trends, This is the 4th highest after
1. Lok Sabha 2019 elections
2. Demonetisation
3. Lok Sabha 2014 elections
Another way to look at it is by excluding the winning result period of 2014 and 2019 election. This would come second to Demonetisation and much higher than even Pulwama.
These are critical times for the the country and the leadership of the Prime Minister and various Chief Ministers across the States. It needs to be seen how things move forward over the next 10 days and beyond.