Rural Youth Drive the Modi surge: Exit Polls

Note this from the CNN-18 Ipsos exit poll

 Around 50 percent of first-time voters and 51 percent of voters between the ages of 23 and 30 (this would be much higher if one were only to consider northern, western or even eastern states where BJP has strong footprint. It is known that in southern India, except Karnataka, BJP does not have much of a presence) is predicted.

The Detailed Calculations are below but here are the headlines

BJP’s share amongst 30 years and less has gone up approximately 17% points

Amongst those who are above 30, this has gone up just 5% points

Calculations

If one uses the following assumptions (some of it may not be precise)

On the basis of the above, we arrive at a figure 173 million voters in the age band of 18 to 30 (using census data). 70% of these youth live in rural India.

Apply the Ipsos estimate and we arrive at 88 million votes

The ECI Voter turnout data indicates about 600 million voted and IPSOS has indicated a vote share of 39.6% for the BJP. Which means 151 million voted for the BJP amongst those older than 30.

Using CSDS 2014 data (and taking straight averages with reasonable accuracy of 2 to 3% points).

On arrives at vote shares of 34% amongst less than 25, 33% amongst 26 to 35 and 30% amongst those greater than 35

This leads to approxmiately 17% swing amongst <=30 and 5% swing amongst those older than 30

The Rural Story

In 2014, there was a 9% gap between Urban and Rural vote share for the BJP (39% and 30%)

In 2019, Axis predicts 49% share in Urban and 44% share in rural

Urban swung 10% while rural has swung even higher at 14% (due to having a larger proportion of the Youth Population)