Sampath Kumar predicted 85 seats for TRS in Telangana Assembly Election
Sampath Kumar started to engage with us first on twitter and came across as a person who was very confident and sure about what he was saying at the ground level. He was challenged frequently and he would handle those challenges with utmost dignity, something that is sometimes missing on social media. At the end as the assembly seats tally came in, everybody who challenged him had to grudgingly or graciously accept his expertise. Such a deserving winner!
Sampath is an MBA and based out of Hyderabad, he wins our Rs 50000 prize money for Telangana Assembly Election Prediction . Here are some answers to our questions about his prediction thinking
Why did you participate in the contest, what did you like about the contest?
I started following Crowd Wisdom on twitter. I liked the concept of of taking inputs from the people and aggregating it all to provide a trend about what might happen.
I thought my inputs will help the platform. Frankly, I did not even know that a contest was on. It was more my interest in the Telangana assembly election that made me give my predictions on the crowd wisdom platform.
What was your thinking behind the prediction in Telangana Assembly Election which finally proved to be the most accurate?
I had looked at the macro factors and election arithmetics that would have an outcome of the election. Some of these include.
CM K Chandrasekhar Rao’s Social Welfare schemes . There were about 40 lakhs people who were receiving Aasara pensions. These people were supporting TRS.
Others schemes like Kalyana Lakshmi and KCR Kits had significant impact on Women who I thought would support TRS.
Muslim and BC rallying behind TRS also helped me make an estimation.
Leadership vacuum in Alliance also helped me make my prediction.
Considering all the above factors, I had predicted the possibility of each seat with came out to be true.
What do you think is likely to happen in Telangana for the 2019 Lok Sabha Election?
I fully expect TRS will not get the Vote share it got here in the Lok Sabha elections. However Congress will be so down that I cant see them motivated enough to work hard win good number of seats.
Expect TRS to get 14 to 16 seats.
Read all our Telangana Election Analysis here
1. Telangana is one of the best when it comes to jobs
Total Number of Jobs Created between Sept 2017 to August 2018
Telangana – 340999 (Share is 4.7%, Pop Share is 2.9%)
Rajasthan – 226449 (Share is 3.1%, Pop Share is 5.7%)
Madhya Pradesh – 208103 (Share is 2.8%, Pop Share is 6%)
Chhattisgarh – 95192 (Share is 1.3%, Pop Share is 2.1%)
2. How Telangana Assembly Could end up being a TRS landslide
a. KCR Leadership advantage, b. 2.Opposition inability to convert Farm dissatisfaction into a movement against TRS
3. Why KCR is ahead in Telangana Assembly Election?
a. Economy, b. Low dependency on Agriculture c. Poor Opposition
4. What are the challenges for TRS in Telangana Election?
a. Poor Rural Growth, b. Failing to meet manifesto promises, c. Inability to attract large investments d. Not focussing on Urban Population needs
5. Chances for the BJP in Telangana