Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll 2021: AIADMK+ winning Tamil Nadu Election?
The Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll 2021 shows change of government in state.
The voting for 234 seats of Tamil Nadu concluded on 6th April and the future of all the candidates are now sealed in EVM machines. The counting will be conducted on 2nd of May that is after the final phase of Bengal election concludes. The Tamil Nadu Election Opinion polls have heavily predicted win for DMK alliance and end of 10 years of rule of AIADMK in state. However, what will be the final result it will be decided on 2nd May 2021.
This time Tamil Nadu is witnessing a direct fight between two alliances, NDA which is lead by AIADMK in and UPA which is lead by DMK. In 2019 Lok Sabha election of 39 seats, DMK alliance won 38 seats and AIADMK-BJP could win only 1 seat. In terms of Assembly segments, DMK along with Indian National Congress were ahead in 187 segments while AIADMK along with BJP were ahead in just 13 segments.
The Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll 2021 was published on 29th April. In last election AIADMK under late J Jayalalithaa had won 136 seats while DMK under late M Karunanidhi won 98 seats. Here is the summary of the exit poll:
Tamil Nadu Exit poll prediction 2021 conducted by Crowdwisdom360 show state heading for a hung assembly with ADMK-BJP alliance as largest alliance. ADMK+BJP may win 116 seats while DMK+ may win 112 seats.
The Tamil Nadu election opinion poll average did show massive lead for DMK+. The opinion polls had DMK+ at 150 seats, AIADMK+ at 78 seats and Others 6 seats. However, the Tamil Nadu Election Exit poll as conducted by Crowdwisdom360 show a complete change in number. As per our assessment, DMK+ may win 112 seats ADMK+ may win 116 seats.
Here is the summary of the Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll for 2021 Assembly election:
| ADMK+ | DMK+ | Others | |
| Crowdwisdom360 | 116 | 112 | |
| Republic TV CNS | 63 | 165 | 6 |
| India TV Axis | 185 | 46 | 2 |
Google Trends
In 2019 election day, the 3 Current NDA parties – AIADMK, BJP and PMK together had 51% of the share of search, the two UPA parties – DMK and INC had 49% of the share of Google Search
In 2021 election day, the 3 Current NDA parties – AIADMK, BJP and PMK together had 44% of the share of search, the two UPA parties – DMK and INC had 56% of the share of Google Search
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Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll 2021: Google Search Update, Voting Day Comparisons
2016: AIADMK: 56%, DMK: 44%
2019: AIADMK: 32%, DMK: 68%
2021: AIADMK: 35%, DMK: 65%
DMK alliance looking comfortable to win majority(according to Google Search)
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll 2021: Latest Crowdwisdom360 Prices
DMK to win 115+ Seats: Price: 79, High Probability
DMK to win 135+ Seats: Price: 50, Medium Probability
Most likely to win seat by a big margin
MK Stalin: Price: 71, Medium Probability
O Paneerselvam: Price: 59, Medium Probability
EK Palanisami: Price: 51, Medium Probability
Here is the summary of Tamil Nadu election Exit poll of last election:
| Agency | AIADMK | DMK+ | BJP |
| India Today-Axis | 89–101 | 124–140 | 0–3 |
| News Nation | 95–99 | 120-118 | 0–1 |
| C Voter | 139 | 78 | 0 |
| NewsX | 90 | 140 | 0 |
| ABP Nielsen | 95 | 132 | 1 |
| NDTV Poll of Polls | 103 | 120 | 0 |
| Chanakya | 90 | 140 | 0 |
| Spick News | 142 | 87 | 0 |
| Thanthi TV | 111 | 99 | 1 |
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll 2021: Analysis of 2016 Election result
In 2016, AIADMK managed to return to power despite of anti-incumbency and dissatisfaction. It managed to do this by winning 75% of the seats in the Kongu region (50 out of 66 seats) while giving a good fight in rest of semi-urban Tamil Nadu.
Apart from the regional trend, AIADMK outperformed well amongst the following segments
– Scheduled Caste Seats
– Upper Castes
– Women
Amongst caste groups, the AIADMK performed well amongst its traditional backers – Gounders, Nadars and Thevars
Some experts have argued that the DMK struggled to match the AIADMK due to its inability to stitch the right coalition. This is true, the DMK on its own has crossed the 35% mark just once after 1977. The AIADMK on the other hand has crossed 35%, 5 times since 1977. So stitching the right alliance is far more critical for the DMK than AIADMK.
Election Result Analysis
In 2016, AIADMK fought the election with 6 small parties which were given 7 seats to contest. DMK on the other hand had 7 partners with Congress party contesting in 41 seats while DMK itself contested in 176 seats.
Overall Seat Tallies: Tamil Nadu Election Result 2016 analysis
Total Number of Seats: 234
AIADMK+: 134 Seats (41.8% Vote Share)
DMK+: 98 Seats (39.3% Share)
Seats with 10%+ Margin: 2016 Tamil Nadu Election Result analysis (Strong)
AIADMK: 42 Seats
DMK+: 32 Seats
Seats with <= 5%+ Margin: Tamil Nadu Election Result 2016 analysis (Weak)
AIADMK: 49 Seats
DMK+: 40 Seats
AIADMK Strong Districts: 70%+ Seats
Coimbatore: AIADMK: 14 out of 16 seats, Vote Share: 45.8%, Lead: 9.5%
Erode: AIADMK: 9 out of 10 seats, Vote Share: 44.4%, Lead: 4.7%
Madurai: AIADMK: 8 out of 10 seats, Vote Share: 46.5%, Lead: 8.2%
Nagapattinam: AIADMK: 5 out of 6 seats, Vote Share: 43.4%, Lead: 7%
Namakkal: AIADMK: 5 out of 6 seats, Vote Share: 47.3%, Lead: 7.8%
Salem: AIADMK: 10 out of 11 seats, Vote Share: 43.4%, Lead: 8.2%
Thiruvallur: AIADMK: 7 out of 10 seats, Vote Share: 41.9%, Lead: 3.5%
DMK+ Strong Districts: 70%+ Seats
Kancheepuram: DMK+: 9 out of 11 seats, Vote Share: 42.4%, Lead: 4.5%
Kanyakumari: DMK+: 6 out of 6 seats, Vote Share: 43.1%, Lead: 18.2%
Urban and Semi-Urban Seats Summary
AIADMK: 85 Seats
DMK: 57 Seats
Rural Seats Summary
AIADMK: 49 Seats
DMK: 41 Seats
SC Reserved Seats Summary
AIADMK: 30 Seats
DMK+: 14 Seats
Female Candidates Summary
AIADMK, Candidates: 30, Total Votes won: 2.3 million, 15% of AIADMK Votes, Win rate: 53%
DMK+, Candidates: 22, Total Votes won: 1.5 million, 8.9% of DMK+ Votes, Win rate: 24%
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