Texas Governor Election 2022 Predictions and Polls: Beto Wins the Debate but will the Polls be Kind?
Texas Governor Election 2022 Predictions: Despite Beto O’Rourke making massive gains against the incumbent Greg Abbot, Texas is once again predicted to elect the incumbent Greg Abbot as Governor.
Texas Governor Polls (Average of Last 3 Polls): Greg Abbott: 50%, Beto O’Rourke: 42%
Latest Beto O’Rourke Polls: Greg Abbott: 53%, Beto O’Rourke: 46%
2018 election, Abbott (R): 47%, Valdez(D) 35% (June-July 2018)
Google Search Volume Share: Abbott: 33%, O’Rourke: 67%
2018 Election: Abbott: 73%, Valdez: 27%
Social Media Sentiments: Abbott: -53.2% , O’Rourke: -15.5%
Crowdwisdom360 Prediction: Abbott to win by 6-7%
- Google Search Share, Abbott: 29%, Beto: 71% [Beto Gains]
- Social Media Sentiment, Abbott: -85%, Beto: -44% [Beto Gains]
When is the Texas Governor’s Race?
Incumbent Governor of Texas, Gregg Abbott is up against the Democratic Party’s candidate Beto O’Rourke. Democrats haven’t won a Gubernatorial election in Texas since 1990.
The 2022 Texas gubernatorial election will take place on November 8, 2022
Texas Governor Election 2022 Predictions
|Who is leading?||Trending Towards|
|Texas Governor Race Polls||Abbott||Abbott|
|Social Media Sentiment||O’Rourke||O’Rourke|
Latest in the Campaign
Beto O’Rourke Polls: Greg Abbott’s approval ratings are in poor shape
Over the last 3 years, Texas has underperformed the national average by a big margin. For example, Arizona under Governor Ducey (R) outperformed the national average.
- As a consequence, in the latest Texas Governor Polls, 59% of Texans think the state is headed in the wrong direction. 36% of Republicans believe Texas is headed in the wrong direction. Greg Abbott’s approval rating is heading lower with 46% disapproving of the Governor’s performance.
- Many voters are in the middle or neutral. Typically such voters tend to vote against an incumbent for two reasons. They find a strong emotional reason to swing against the incumbent or a robust practical reason to vote for the challenger.
Texas Governor Election 2022 Predictions: Beto vs Abbott Poll 2022
Greg Abbott is leading all the Texas Governor Polls released so far. The average polling range for Abbott is about 45-47%, the same as in 2018. However, Beto O’Rourke is trailing the 2019 Democratic party candidate by 5% in the latest Texas Governor Race Polls.
|Average of Polls||October 1st|
|Greg Abbott (R)||50%|
|Beto O’Rourke (D)||42%|
|Quinnipiac University||Sept 26th|
|Greg Abbott (R)||53%|
|Beto O’Rourke (D)||46%|
|Emerson college||Sept 22nd|
|Greg Abbott (R)||50%|
|Beto O’Rourke (D)||42%|
|Greg Abbott (R)||47%|
|Beto O’Rourke (D)||40%|
Texas Governor Election 2022 Predictions: Observations_and_Insights
What are the issues that may Hurt Greg Abbot?
The Political Environment of Texas still favors the GOP but two significant issues have worsted GOP’s perception amongst voters: Abortion Laws and Law and order or Gun Control.
These two seem to be the key issues democrats can leverage to take on Kemp. While Governor Abbott is trying to overlook the central issues for the November elections. Recent Polls suggest that Texas voters, often by wide margins, oppose outlawing all abortion and want stricter gun laws.
According to him the No.1 issue by far in the state is the border. His campaign off late has been about targeting Rourke over Police defunding and releasing biographical campaign Ads for his image building.
What are the Issues Where Abbot is Performing Moderately?
Inflation, Crime and drugs, and the economy are the top 3 issues impacting Texans, and Abbott is NOT UNCOMFORTABLY placed on any of them. But he is not exactly dominating on these issues either. The problem is Beto has not been able to convince many Texans that he has the solutions to these issues.
What issues are not the Voters Top Concern?
While electricity or power grids are not the voter’s top concerns, the issue is closely perceived to be tied to the Governor’s Job. The Democrats are taking advantage of this issue in their bid to turn Texas blue.
Beto O’ Rourke has hammered Governor Abbott for months over power grid management. His campaign website promises to “redesign the power grid to prioritize Texas families, not wealthy energy corporations.”
What are the strong areas of Greg Abbott?
The strength of Abbott are immigration issues. Abbott is tightening his positioning on immigration, a traditionally weak area for Democrats in Arizona and Nationally.
Texas Governor Polls: Betting Odds
Texas Governor Polls: Last Election Poll and Result
Texas Governor Election 2022 Polls: Can Beto O’ Rourke win?
Nearly 60% of the voters in Texas describe themselves as Democrats or Independents. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won 43% of the vote indicating a conversion of 69%. In 2020, Joe Biden won 46.5% of the vote, a conversion of 79%.
Beto O’Rourke will need to convince 85% of these voters to vote for him during the November Texas Gubernatorial Election. This translates to 400,000 voters shifting loyalties from Republican to Democrat in the November election.
- That is about 1574 votes per County or
- 10% more votes in the Top 10-15 Counties (Many of which voted Democrat) or
- Increasing Democrat Turnout by 12%
While the reality may seem quite different, there is a theoretical possibility that Beto O’ Rourke could beat Greg Abbott.
Texas Governor Election 2022 Polls: Greg Abbott Approval Rating
While Abbott’s approval ratings are not great, the % disapproving of him hasn’t crossed the 50% barrier. His approval ratings have been on a decline since 2021.
Texas Governor Election 2022 Polls: Google Trends for the last 7 days
Texas Governor Polls 2022: Social Media Sentiments
Beto O’Rourke Polls: O’Rourke is rising on Google and Social Media
Google tends to give a pretty accurate picture of the momentum in an election and what we know for sure is that Governor Abbott led Beto by 18 points in the share of Google Searches a week before Uvalde. Beto is leading Abbott by 28 points now in terms of search volume. Social media sentiments towards Governor Abbott have deteriorated during this period.
Texas Governor Race Polls 2022: Latest Campaign Videos
Texas Governor Polls: Latest Tweets
Texas Governor Polls 2022: Candidate Endorsements
Texas Governor Polls 2022: What is expected from the Texas Governor Election?
a. How Joe Biden’s Approval Rating Will Impact Chances of Democrats in Texas?
The Democrats have failed to win the Governor election since 1994. The upcoming Governor election in Texas would be an uphill task for Democrats. The declining Biden’s approval rating is turning out to be a matter of concern for the Democrats. Since being in office Biden has been under extreme pressure due to the issues like Covid, inflation, the US withdrawal of Afghanistan, and now the Ukraine crisis.
President Biden and Democrats have failed on most of the fronts, impacting the Democrats around the country. The result of the latest Virginia election, as well as the North Carolina, shows the increasing influence of Republicans and Democrats losing grip.
b. Republicans have an Upper hand
The latest Texas Governor polls show that Republicans are ahead of the Democrats. In the 2020 General Election, most polls overestimated Biden over Trump in Texas. Trump won the state by 5.8%. Currently, as per the latest Emerson poll, the incumbent governor Greg Abbott is ahead of the Democrat Beto O’Rourke by 5 points.
All things considered, Abbott should win. However, with Beto O’Rourke closing in, it would be unwise to come to the conclusion of the election as of today.