Texas Governor Polls 2022: Rourke gains big amongst Women, can he build a win on that?

Texas Governor Polls 2022: Rourke gains big amongst Women, can he build a win on that?
Texas Governor Polls 2022: The average of the two polls is Greg Abbott: 47% and Beto O’Rourke: 41%(+3%)
In 2018, Abbott (R) was 50% vs Valdez(D) 37%
Rourke is outperforming Valdez and improved +3% after Uvalde

Google Search Volume Share: Abbott: 51% and Rourke: 49%
In the week before the 2018 Election, Abbott (R): 73%, Valdez (D): 27%
Rourke is significantly outperforming Valdez after Uvalde Shooting

Social Media Sentiments: Abbott: -7% and Rourke: -1%
Both Abbott and Rourke have made significant improvements since the aftermath of Uvalde

Verdict: Abbott was cruising to a comfortable win against Rourke but post-Uvalde, the contest is likely to be much closer

Read on for detailed findings and Insights

On March 1st, 2022, the incumbent Governor of Texas, Gregg Abbott sealed his candidature for the November 8th Texas Governor race. He will be up against the Democratic Party’s candidate Beto O’Rourke.

Hot: Gov. Greg Abbott tries to unite Texas Republicans at the party convention

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Texas Governor Polls 2022: Observations and Insights

  • Where has Beto gained? [As per the two Quinnipiac Polls of Dec 2021 and May 2022]
    • Women: +11%
    • Gun Policy: +10%
    • +65 years: +8%
    • Hispanic: +6%
    • On Economy: +6%
    • Mexican Border: +3%
    • Independent voters: +3%
  • Abbot led Valdez by 13 points at this point in time in 2018 while leading by just 6 points this year. This is primarily because the % of voters who disapprove of Governor Abbott is up 15% points over the last years
  • To win, Beto needs to swing another 10% women and perhaps another 4-6% men. A very tough task indeed

Texas Governor Polls 2022: Greg Abbott Approval Rating

  • Amongst Governors, Greg Abbott is an average performer with 53% approving of his performance while 41% disapprove of his performance. That translates to a Net Approval of 12%. Ron DeSantis for example has a net approval of 18%. In the latest Quinnipiac poll, Abbott registered an approval rating of 46%
  • In 2018 (April-June), 56% of the voters approved of Abbott while 26% disapproved of his performance as Governor

Texas Governor Race Polls 2022: Beto vs Abbott Poll 2022

Poll sourceDate(s)Greg Abbott (R)Beto O’Rourke (D)
Average of PollsJune 18th47%41%
Quinnipiac UniversityJune 13th48%43%
UT TylerMay 2–1046%39%

Texas Governor Race Polls 2022: Google Trends for the last 7 days, June 18th

Greg AbbottBeto O’Rourke
Last 7 days51%49%
7 Days before Uvalde63%37%

Texas Governor Election 2022 Polls: Social Media Sentiments

Date#abbott#rourke
June 18th-7%-1%
May 26th-32%-32%

Texas Governor Polls 2022: Latest Campaign Videos

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Texas Governor Election Polls 2022: Latest News

  1. Gov. Greg Abbott unloads nearly $20 million in ad buys in race against Beto O’Rourke
  2. ‘Ready to be that change.’ How Roe being overturned could affect Texas midterm election

Texas Governor Polls: Latest Tweets

Originally tweeted by Greg Abbott (@GregAbbott_TX) on June 29, 2022.

Texas is AGAIN taking unprecedented action to address Biden’s border catastrophe.

– Additional truck checkpoints
– Strike teams to detect & apprehend unlawful crossings
– More miles of concertina wire on the Rio Grande

As Biden ignores this crisis, Texas will secure the border.

Texas Governor Polls: Background

Although Governor Abbott has generally played into the right flank during the 2021 Legislative session, there is still a wing of the party hungry for more red-meat best exemplified when he was heckled at a Trump rally in Conroe, Texas this January. Allen West, a former Congressman from Florida, has been a thorn in Abbott’s side since becoming the state party chairman in 2020 – setting hard-line policies on the party’s platform and on Twitter.

His rise to fame in the state has been driven by incredibly conservative rhetoric on cultural issues combined with a laissez-faire attitude towards the coronavirus. Don Huffines, a former State Senator from Dallas, has played into the primary mostly by driving extreme rhetoric on billboards and television advertisements endorsing the elimination of all property taxes, mass deportation, and to ‘stop giving illegals our money’.

Read: 2022 Michigan Governor Race Polls

One issue Abbott may face is that people who are most encouraged to vote in a primary can often be the most fanatical, so he may find the margins closer than he would prefer.

Regardless, there are many trends that suggest that Abbot will likely win re-nomination.

Texas Governor Polls 2022: What is expected from the Texas Governor Election?

a. How Joe Biden’s Approval Rating Will Impact Chances of Democrats in Texas?

The Democrats have failed to win the Governor election since 1994. The upcoming Governor election in Texas would be an uphill task for Democrats. The declining Biden’s approval rating is turning out to be a matter of concern for the Democrats. Since being in office Biden has been under extreme pressure due to the issues like Covid, inflation, the US withdrawal of Afghanistan, and now the Ukraine crisis.

President Biden and Democrats have failed on most of the fronts which have impacted the Democrats around the country. The result of the latest Virginia election, as well as the North Carolina, shows the increasing influence of Republicans and Democrats losing grip.

b. Republicans have an Upper hand

The latest Texas Governor polls show that Republicans are ahead of the Democrats. In the 2020 General Election, most of the polls overestimated Biden over Trump in Texas. Trump won the state by 5.8%. Currently, as per the latest Emerson poll, the incumbent governor Greg Abbott is ahead of the Democrat Beto O’Rourke by 5 points.

All things considered, Abbott should win. However, with Beto O’Rourke closing in, it would be unwise to come to the conclusion of the election as of today.

Texas Governor Polls 2022

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