Texas Governor Polls 2022: Abbott Leads Rourke by 8 Points As Per Latest Poll

Texas Governor Polls 2022: Abbott Leads Rourke by 8 Points As Per Latest Poll
Texas Governor Polls 2022: The average of the two polls is Greg Abbott: 48% and Beto O’Rourke: 41%(+3%)
In 2018, Abbott (R) was 50% vs Valdez(D) 37%
Rourke is outperforming Valdez and improved +3% after Uvalde

Google Search Volume Share: Abbott: 53% and Rourke: 47%
In the week before the 2018 Election, Abbott (R): 73%, Valdez (D): 27%
Rourke is significantly outperforming Valdez after Uvalde Shooting. Rourke for the time is ahead of Abbott in the latest Google Trend.

Social Media Sentiments: Abbott: -43% and Rourke: -1.5%

Verdict: Abbott was cruising to a win against Rourke. However, the race is expected to be a close one.

Read on for detailed findings and Insights

On March 1st, 2022, the incumbent Governor of Texas, Gregg Abbott sealed his candidature for the November 8th Texas Governor race. He will be up against the Democratic Party’s candidate Beto O’Rourke.

Texas Governor Polls 2022: Observations and Insights

  • Where has Beto gained? [As per the two Quinnipiac Polls of Dec 2021 and May 2022]
    • Women: +11%
    • Gun Policy: +10%
    • +65 years: +8%
    • Hispanic: +6%
    • On Economy: +6%
    • Mexican Border: +3%
    • Independent voters: +3%
  • Abbot led Valdez by 13 points at this point in time in 2018 while leading by just 6 points this year. This is primarily because the % of voters who disapprove of Governor Abbott is up 15% points over the last years
  • To win, Beto needs to swing another 10% women and perhaps another 4-6% men. A very tough task indeed

Texas Governor Race Polls 2022: Beto vs Abbott Poll 2022

Poll sourceDate(s)Greg Abbott (R)Beto O’Rourke (D)
Average of PollsJuly 2nd48%41%
CBS/You GOV PollJuly 1st49%41%
Quinnipiac UniversityJune 13th48%43%
UT TylerMay 2–1046%39%

Texas Governor Race Polls 2022: Google Trends for the last 7 days

Greg AbbottBeto O’Rourke
Last 7 days53%47%
7 Days before Uvalde63%37%

Texas Governor Election 2022 Polls: Social Media Sentiments

Date#abbott#rourke
July 5th-43%-1.5%

Texas Governor Polls 2022: Latest Campaign Videos

YouTube video

Texas Governor Polls: Latest Tweets

Gov. Greg Abbott on Twitter: “Among the most powerful words ever written: “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights…” Happy Independence Day! May God continue to bless America! https://t.co/xfNHVOm5vU pic.twitter.com/LDioGAuNkH / Twitter”

Among the most powerful words ever written: “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights…” Happy Independence Day! May God continue to bless America! https://t.co/xfNHVOm5vU pic.twitter.com/LDioGAuNkH

Texas Governor Polls 2022: Greg Abbott Approval Rating

  • Amongst Governors, Greg Abbott is an average performer with 53% approving of his performance while 41% disapprove of his performance. That translates to a Net Approval of 12%. Ron DeSantis for example has a net approval of 18%. In the latest Quinnipiac poll, Abbott registered an approval rating of 46%
  • In 2018 (April-June), 56% of the voters approved of Abbott while 26% disapproved of his performance as a Governor.

Texas Governor Polls: Background

Although Governor Abbott has generally played into the right flank during the 2021 Legislative session, there is still a wing of the party hungry for more red-meat best exemplified when he was heckled at a Trump rally in Conroe, Texas this January. Allen West, a former Congressman from Florida, has been a thorn in Abbott’s side since becoming the state party chairman in 2020 – setting hard-line policies on the party’s platform and on Twitter.

His rise to fame in the state has been driven by incredibly conservative rhetoric on cultural issues combined with a laissez-faire attitude towards the coronavirus. Don Huffines, a former State Senator from Dallas, has played into the primary mostly by driving extreme rhetoric on billboards and television advertisements endorsing the elimination of all property taxes, mass deportation, and to ‘stop giving illegals our money’.

Read: 2022 Michigan Governor Race Polls

One issue Abbott may face is that people who are most encouraged to vote in a primary can often be the most fanatical, so he may find the margins closer than he would prefer.

Regardless, there are many trends that suggest that Abbot will likely win re-nomination.

Texas Governor Polls 2022: What is expected from the Texas Governor Election?

a. How Joe Biden’s Approval Rating Will Impact Chances of Democrats in Texas?

The Democrats have failed to win the Governor election since 1994. The upcoming Governor election in Texas would be an uphill task for Democrats. The declining Biden’s approval rating is turning out to be a matter of concern for the Democrats. Since being in office Biden has been under extreme pressure due to the issues like Covid, inflation, the US withdrawal of Afghanistan, and now the Ukraine crisis.

President Biden and Democrats have failed on most of the fronts which have impacted the Democrats around the country. The result of the latest Virginia election, as well as the North Carolina, shows the increasing influence of Republicans and Democrats losing grip.

b. Republicans have an Upper hand

The latest Texas Governor polls show that Republicans are ahead of the Democrats. In the 2020 General Election, most of the polls overestimated Biden over Trump in Texas. Trump won the state by 5.8%. Currently, as per the latest Emerson poll, the incumbent governor Greg Abbott is ahead of the Democrat Beto O’Rourke by 5 points.

All things considered, Abbott should win. However, with Beto O’Rourke closing in, it would be unwise to come to the conclusion of the election as of today.

Texas Governor Polls 2022: Voting age Demographics

As per the latest 2020 Census, Voting age demographics of Texas are as follows-

Population- 18.9 Million

Racial EthnicityPercentage
Whites only 49%
Hispanics or Latino 30.9%
Blacks only 13.4%
Asians only 3.9%
Natives and Other Communities 2.8%

Gender Wise Breakup of Texas Voting age Population:

Gender based DivisionPercentage
Male 48.9%
Female 51.1%

Age-Wise Breakup of Texas Voting age Population:

Voting age BreakupPercentage
18-29 years old 23.5%
30-44 years old 26.3%
45-64 years old 31.6%
65+ years old 18.6%
Texas Governor Polls 2022

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