Texas Governor Polls: Beto O’Rourke trails Greg Abbott by 7%, Momentum Over?

Texas Governor Polls: Beto O’Rourke trails Greg Abbott by 7%, Momentum Over?
Texas Governor Polls: Greg Abbott: 48.0%, Beto O’Rourke: 41.3%
2018 election, Abbott (R): 47%, Valdez(D) 35% (June-July 2018)

Google Search Volume Share: Abbott: 31%, O’Rourke: 69%
2018 Election: Abbott: 73%, Valdez: 27%

Social Media Sentiments: Abbott: -46.6% , O’Rourke: -18.2%

Crowdwisdom360 Prediction: Abbott to win by 6%

Incumbent Governor of Texas, Gregg Abbott is up against the Democratic Party’s candidate Beto O’Rourke. Democrats haven’t won a Gubernatorial election in Texas since 1990

Texas Governor Race: Prediction Table

Who is leading?Trending Towards
Texas Governor Race PollsAbbottAbbott
Google SearchO’ RourkeO’Rourke
Social Media SentimentO’RourkeO’Rourke

Greg Abbott should have acted in the 11 weeks since Uvalde, but he refused.

YouTube video

Texas Governor Election 2022 Predictions: Greg Abbot Approval rating and performance

Over the last 3 years, Texas has underperformed the national average by a big margin. For example, Arizona under Governor Ducey (R) outperformed the national average.

TexasUnited States
Personal Income per capita Growth (2021 vs 2018)*14.7%17.9%
Change in Homicide Mortality rate (2020 vs 2018)40.7%29.3%
Annual Health Insurance (40-Year-old) as a Proportion of Per Capita11.6%10.2%
  • As a consequence, in the latest Texas Governor Polls, 59% of Texans think the state is headed in the wrong direction. 36% of Republicans believe Texas is headed in the wrong direction. Greg Abbott approval rating is heading lower with 46% disapproving of the Governor’s performance.
Greg Abbott Approval rating trend over years
Source: University of Texas, Austin
  • While Abbott’s approval ratings are not great, the % disapproving of him hasn’t crossed the 50% barrier. On Economy, just 38% disapprove of him. On Inflation, it is 42%. On Immigration, it is 42%. On the electricity grid, it is 52%. In fact, 1 in 4 Republicans disapproves of how Governor Abbott has handled the electricity Grid.
  • Many voters are in the middle or neutral. Typically such voters tend to vote against an incumbent for two reasons. They find a strong emotional reason to swing against the incumbent or a strong practical reason to vote for the challenger.

Texas Governor Polls 2022: Beto vs Abbott Poll 2022

Greg Abbott is leading all the Texas Governor Polls released so far. The average polling range for Abbott is about 47%, the same as in 2018. However, Beto O’Rourke is outperforming the 2019 Democratic party candidate by 6% in the latest Texas Governor Race Polls.

Average of PollsAug 14th
Greg Abbott (R)48%
Beto O’Rourke (D)41.3%
University of TexasAug 7th
Greg Abbott (R)46%
Beto O’Rourke (D)39%
Houston Hobby SchoolJuly 7th
Greg Abbott (R)49%
Beto O’Rourke (D)44%
CBS/You GOV PollJune 27th
Greg Abbott (R)49%
Beto O’Rourke (D)41%
Polls 2018 ElectionJune-July 2018
Greg Abbott (R)47%
Valdez (D)35%
2018 Election ResultsNov 2018
Greg Abbott (R)55.8%
Valdez (D)42.5%

Texas Governor Election 2022 Polls: Can Beto ‘O’ Rourke win?

Nearly 60% of the voters in Texas describe themselves as Democrats or Independents. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won 43% of the vote indicating a conversion of 69%. In 2020, Joe Biden won 46.5% of the vote, a conversion of 79%.

Beto O’Rourke will need to convince 85% of these voters to vote for him during the November Texas Gubernatorial Election. This translates to 400,000 voters shifting loyalties from Republican to Democrat in the November election.

  • That is about 1574 votes per County or
  • 10% more votes in the Top 10-15 Counties (Many of which voted Democrat) or
  • Increasing Democrat Turnout by 12%
image 330

While the reality may seem quite different, there is a theoretical possibility that Beto ‘O’ Rourke could beat Greg Abbott.

Texas Governor Election 2022 Predictions: The Issues

  • Inflation, Crime and drugs, and the economy are the top 3 issues impacting Texans, and Abbott is NOT UNCOMFORTABLY placed on any of them. But he is not exactly dominating on these issues either. The problem is Beto has not been able to convince many Texans that he has the solutions to these issues.
  • Abbott on the other hand is tightening his positioning on immigration, a traditionally weak area for Democrats in Arizona and Nationally
Screenshot 2022 07 13 at 5.47.41 AM
  • The opportunity for Beto is amongst Independent voters. 55% of them do not approve of Governor Abbott. But only 11% of Texan Voters classify themselves as Independent and another 38% classify themselves as Democrats. This is not enough to win the election. Either he will need to mobilize voters with a massive on-ground effort or peel away the 11% of Republicans who do not approve of Greg Abbott. The Republicans will continue to attack Beto as an out-of-touch ‘woke liberal’ who will convert Texas into a New England State to prevent any loss of Republicans to Beto.
  • 33% of Independent voters are yet to make up their minds. Even if Beto were to win all these voters (an impossible task), he would still be short of votes to win the election.
  • Beto has a very difficult task ahead of him
    • He will need to reposition himself as a more moderate politician willing to support some conservative issues or at least come closer to that position
    • He will need to mobilize a tremendous amount of resources to mobilize voters during the voting period.
    • Last but not the last, Beto will need to articulate his solutions to voters that inspire voters to switch parties and vote for him
  • Beto O’Rourke would be doing 49 day, 5600 Mile drive across Texas called the ‘A Drive for Texas’ campaign.

Texas Governor Election 2022 Polls: Google Trends for the last 7 days

Greg AbbottBeto O’Rourke
Last 7 days29%71%
7 Days before Uvalde60%40%

Texas Governor Polls 2022: Social Media Sentiments

#abbott#rourke
August 14th-44.4%-18.7%
July 22th-38.5%+5.4%

Beto O’Rourke Polls: O’Rourke is rising on Google and Social Media

Google tends to give a pretty accurate picture of the momentum in an election and what we know for sure is that Governor Abbott led Beto by 26% in the share of Google Searches a week before Uvalde. Beto is leading Abbott by 6 points now. Social media sentiments towards Governor Abbott have deteriorated during this period.

Texas Governor Race Polls: Latest News

  1. Greg Abbott agrees to one debate with Beto O’Rourke, but O’Rourke wants more
  2. How Gov. Greg Abbott exported a border crisis to New York City
  3. Beto O’Rourke’s ‘motherf—er’ outburst contradicts pledge to avoid ‘the F-word’
  4. How Gov. Greg Abbott Texas-Sized a Crisis for NYC Mayor Eric Adams
  5. Part of Texas Gov. Abbott’s solution for making Uvalde schools safer after the mass shooting

Texas Governor Race Polls: Latest Campaign Videos

YouTube video

Texas Governor Polls: Latest Tweets

Originally tweeted by Beto O’Rourke (@BetoORourke) on August 12, 2022.

Democrats, Republicans, and Independents are uniting as Texans to overcome Greg Abbott’s extremism and move forward on the big things that we want to accomplish together.

Read: 2022 Michigan Governor Race Polls

Texas Governor Polls 2022: What is expected from the Texas Governor Election?

a. How Joe Biden’s Approval Rating Will Impact Chances of Democrats in Texas?

The Democrats have failed to win the Governor election since 1994. The upcoming Governor election in Texas would be an uphill task for Democrats. The declining Biden’s approval rating is turning out to be a matter of concern for the Democrats. Since being in office Biden has been under extreme pressure due to the issues like Covid, inflation, the US withdrawal of Afghanistan, and now the Ukraine crisis.

President Biden and Democrats have failed on most of the fronts which have impacted the Democrats around the country. The result of the latest Virginia election, as well as the North Carolina, shows the increasing influence of Republicans and Democrats losing grip.

b. Republicans have an Upper hand

The latest Texas Governor polls show that Republicans are ahead of the Democrats. In the 2020 General Election, most of the polls overestimated Biden over Trump in Texas. Trump won the state by 5.8%. Currently, as per the latest Emerson poll, the incumbent governor Greg Abbott is ahead of the Democrat Beto O’Rourke by 5 points.

All things considered, Abbott should win. However, with Beto O’Rourke closing in, it would be unwise to come to the conclusion of the election as of today.

Texas Governor Election 2022 Polls: Polling Average Last 3 elections and Result

2018 Texas Governor Election: Texas has mostly been a den of Republicans. The last Texas election was held on November 6th, 2018. On the ballot were Greg Abbott facing the Democrat Lupe Valdez. The polls leading up to the General election favored Greg Abbott with most of the polls giving Abbott a lead of 6-8%. The election result was in line with the polls.

Gregg Abbott won the election as he polled 55.5% vote share. The Democratic Party nominee Lupe Valdez polled only 42.5% vote share. Abbott won the election by 13%. This was the second term of Abbott as Governor of Texas.

2014 Texas Governor Election: The 2014 Texas gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2014. The incumbent Republican Governor Rick Perry’s nomination was declined which paved the way for a new GOP candidate for the office of Governor. Greg Abbott won the Primary election and was up against the Democrat Wendy Davis.

The election result was almost one-sided. Greg Abbott won the election by over 20%. Abbott polled around 59.3% vote share while the Democratic party nominee Wendy Davis received only 38.9% vote share. Gregg Abbott went on to become the Governor of Texas for the first time replacing the incumbent governor Rick Perry.

2010 Texas Governor election: The 2010 Texas Governor Election was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010. Rick Perry, the incumbent Governor was seeking to be re-elected as Governor of Texas for the 3rd time. His challenger was Democratic Bill White.

The election result was almost one-sided. The incumbent Governor Rick Perry won the election as he polled 55% of the total votes. Bill White received only 42.3% of the total votes. Rick Perry after the election result went on to become the Governor of Texas for the 3rd consecutive time.

Texas Governor Election 2022 Polls: Support Across Demographics

For the upcoming Texas Governor election, the fight between the incumbent Governor Greg Abbott and the Democratic nominee Beto O’Rourke is heading for a wire finish. However, the polls have shown Abbott has a lead over Beto O’Rourke. Here is how the support of both the candidates expands over the Demographics of the society:

Greg Abbott:

White Voters: Greg Abbot has huge support among the white voters. Around 60% of the white voters favor Abbott over Rourke.

Black Voters: Black Voters have almost no trust in Governor Greg Abbott. Of the total black voters, only 8% of the black voters could vote for Gregg Abbott in the upcoming Governor election.

Women Voters: Greg Abbott despite not being much famous among women voters is set to receive the support of 43% of the women voters in Texas.

Men Voters: Men Voters are aligning more behind Abbott than Beto O’Rourke. Gregg Abbott maintains an 18% lead over Beto O’Rourke among the men voters. He has the support of 56% of the men voters of Texas.

Older Texans: Older Texans favor Greg Abbott over Beto O’Rourke. Greg Abbott has 18% lead over Beto O’Rourke when it comes to Older Texan voters. Abbott may get the support of 57% of the older Texan voters.

Millennial Voters: Millennial Voters would prefer Beto O’Rourke over Greg Abbott. Around 36% of the millennial voters may back Greg Abbott in the upcoming Texas Governor election.

Beto O’Rourke

White Voters: Beto O’Rourke is struggling to garner the support of the white voters. Only 33% of the total white voters may side with Beto O’Rourke in the upcoming Texas Governor election.

Black Voters: Black voters are majorly going to vote for Beto O’Rourke. In Texas, there are around 14% black voters. 92% of the 14% of black voters prefer Beto O’Rourke over Greg Abbott.

Women Voters: Beto O’Rourke is set to garner more support from women voters than the men voters in Texas. Around 49% of the women voters prefer Beto O’Rourke over Governor Greg Abbott. Beto O’Rourke has a 6% lead over Abbott among the women voters.

Men Voters: Beto O’Rourke is slightly struggling among the men voters. Only 38% of the Texas men voters may back Beto O’Rourke in the upcoming Governor election.

Older Texans: Beto O’Rourke is not famous among the older Texan voters. He may be able to garner only 39% support among the older Texan voters.

Millennial Voters: Millennial Voters are highly impressed by the way Beto O’Rourke has been running his campaign. He is set to outsmart Greg Abbott among the Millennial voters. 51% of the millennial voter are set to back Beto O’Rourke in the upcoming election. He maintains a 15% over Greg Abbott among the Millennial voters.

Texas Governor Polls 2022: Voting age Demographics

As per the latest 2020 Census, the Voting age demographics of Texas are as follows-

Population- 18.9 Million

EthnicityPercentage
Whites only 49%
Hispanics or Latino 30.9%
Blacks only 13.4%
Asians only 3.9%
Natives and Other Communities 2.8%

Gender Wise Breakup of Texas Voting age Population:

Gender-based DivisionPercentage
Male 48.9%
Female 51.1%

Age-Wise Breakup of Texas Voting age Population:

Voting age BreakupPercentage
18-29 years old 23.5%
30-44 years old 26.3%
45-64 years old 31.6%
65+ years old 18.6%
Texas Governor Polls 2022

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