The Most Important Chart Today: Prediction 2019
How these vote shares by caste move will tell us a lot about 2019.
Upper OBC is the number 1 swing group. If they swing against the BJP, BJP will be in trouble. If they don’t swing at all, opposition will be in trouble
SC and ST are expected to swing against BJP but the question is how much? Small swings will be compensated by UC polarisation in favour of BJP.
While there is UC Polarisation in favour of BJP in States like UP, it is not so across all States. Some UCs are likely to abandon BJP (Urban), question is how much and where.