Vote Share Estimates: 2020 Bihar Election

Using two different and simple methods, we arrive at vote shares for the forthcoming Bihar Election in October 2020.

Before that, let us look at how the two broad alliances performed in 2015 and 2019

2015

Current NDA, Vote Share in 2015: 47.3% (BJP+JDU+LJSP)

Current RJD Alliance, Vote Share in 2015: 30.6% (RJD+INC+HAM+RLSP+CPIML)

2019

Current NDA, Vote Share in 2019: 54.4% (BJP+JDU+LJSP)

Current RJD Alliance, Vote Share in 2019: 30.6% (RJD+INC+HAM+RLSP+CPIML+VIP): 33.1%

We use two different methods to arrive at a forecast for the 2020 Assembly election

Method 1: Remove Modi Factor, 18% of Vote to 2019 Election data

NDA Comes down to 44.6% of the vote

With Others and Independents hovering between 15 to 20% in the last 5 elections

RJD Alliance would be about 35.4 to 40.4%

Method 2: Using Google Trends data relationship with 2015 election data and applying it on 2020 Google Trends Data

NDA Comes down to 43.4% of the vote

With Others and Independents Hovering between 15 to 20% in the last 5 elections

RJD Alliance would be about 36.6 to 41.6%

In Sum

NDA will probably hover between 40 and 45% of the vote while RJD alliance will hover between 35 and 40% of the vote. With these kind of vote shares, NDA is likely to end with 125 to 150 seats, a simple majority. The question is, will there be an X-Factor by October?