Is it WAR against China?
Is it War against China? Two major events in the last 24 hours with respect to the border with China and one update from Pakistan. One, India has publicly asked China to move back to its side of LAC. India has deployed Ultra light Howitzers in the Depsang Sector. This follows increased troop reinforcements on both sides of the Border.
While the Military Experts have lots of opinions on why China is choosing specific areas, our political sense is that Xi is in serious trouble in China. The war against china will not come because China sees India as a threat. It is because Xi sees an opportunity to consolidate himself in China. Here are his 5 major failures encompassing all fronts
War against China because of Xi’s Failures?
Economy: The biggest of the failures of Xi Jinping is the economy. China’s per capita grew 3 fold between 2006 and 2012 but by just 0.5 times between 2012 and 2018 under Xi Jinping. An example is automobile sales which were 7.3m in 2006, went up to 19.3m in 2012. That is a jump of 12 m in 6 years. However, between 2012 and 2018, it went up a meagre 4 million.
Domestic Mess: While China was always seen as repressing Muslims and Tibetans, the Government under Xi Jinping took domestic unrest to another level. First, since 2017, in Xinjiang, hundreds of thousands of Uighurs have been detained in re-education camps. Last month, China passed new national security laws for Hong Kong, which aim at cracking down protests and ban “any acts or activities” that the government considers to endanger China’s national security. This is in violation of China’s agreement with Britain
Corona Mess: There is widespread international condemnation to how China has handled Coronavirus. Apart from reporting late on Human to Human transmissions, China grossly under reported the numbers of cases and deaths. This had a severe impact on how other countries responded to the situation. As of today, the economies of all countries including China are in deep trouble thanks to Chinese negligence
BRI: Whether BRI will be seen as successes or failures of Xi Jinping , time will tell but the evidence is not favourable at the moment. According to Chinese government data, China’s overseas investment growth is in decline, peaking at 49.3% year-on-year growth in 2016 and then falling by 19% in 2017 and another 10% in 2018. Moody’s estimated that investments are likely to remain at the same level are go down even further in the next few years
Foreign Affairs: In a 34 country study carried out by Pew last year, 41% of the respondents had an unfavourable opinion about China, only 40% had a favourable opinion. In Canada for example, between 2006 and 2012, negative feelings about China went up 8 points. However, It went up 22 points between 2012 and 2018 under Xi Jinping. Apart from the trade conflict with the United States and Australia, China is roughing it up with Japan, S.Korea (Through North Korea), Vietnam and Philippines.
Given India’s own vulnerability on account of the Corona and Economic crisis, Xi sees this as an opportunity to teach India a lesson and not expect a major reprisals. The border clash two weeks ago was a huge disappointment for the PLA as that led to numerous casualties on their side. They are perhaps itching for revenge. The war against China may not come because India wants it but because China wants to solve its internal problems through external conflict.
Is it WAR against China?
Article by CrowdWisdom360 team