West Bengal Assembly Election 2021 : Mamata Banerjee Losing Bengal?

West Bengal Assembly Election 2021 : In 2014, India’s politics took a dramatic turn. After decades, country got a full majority government at the centre. Narendra Modi led BJP won absolute majority and went on the form government at the centre. The Modi wave swept the nation; however, story was completely different in West Bengal. The Citadel of Mamata Banerjee stood rock solid against the Modi wave. In 2014 Lok Sabha election, BJP managed to win only two of the 42 Lok Sabha seats. Two years down the line, the assembly election for 295 assembly seats were held. Mamata Banerjee again proved her might in the state. Trinamool Congress won 211 seats while BJP could manage only 3 seats in the state.

Message was loud and clear, in Bengal it was either Mamata Banerjee or none. However, things completely changed in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. BJP, which was nowhere in the Bengal’s political picture, shook the ground below the feet of Mamta Banerjee. This time the Modi wave that failed in 2014, struck hard shaking the Citadel of Mamata Banerjee. From 2 Lok Sabha seats, BJP added 16 more to its kitty, taking the tally to 18 Lok Sabha seats in Bengal. Mamata Banerjee’s TMC managed to win 22 Lok Sabha seats 12 less than what it had won in 2014. This time message was loud and clear for Mamata Banerjee, BJP is making its way in the state.

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Analysing the Vote share of Lok Sabha 2014 and 2019

In 2014, Lok Sabha election, Mamata Banerjee’s TMC had won around 39.05% vote share, while the Left (CPIm) won 29.71% vote share. BJP was distant third with only 17.02%.

In 2019 Lok Sabha election, TMC managed to increase its vote share by 4% taking it to 43.28%, while BJP ate away the 2014 vote shares of CPI(m) and Congress. The party managed to increase its vote share from 17% in 2014 to 40.25% in 2019. It is clearly evident, TMC though it managed to increase its vote share lost 12 seats while BJP which increased its vote share by 27% added 16 additional seats to its tally.

Lok Sabha to Vidhan Sabha

BJP won 18 Lok Sabha seats in 2019 Lok Sabha election. If the results are to interpreted in form of assembly seats, BJP looks ahead in almost 130 Assembly seats. TMC on the other hand maintains lead in alomst 160 assembly seats. However, the result of the Lok Sabha also brought to light that BJP was in close second in about 65 assembly seats. The BJP national general secretary and West Bengal in-charge, Kailash Vijayvargiya said, “For the Lok Sabha polls, we had set a target of 23 Lok Sabha seats, and won 18. Now, our new target is 250 seats in the state (assembly). We will prepare our poll strategy and work towards achieving this target.” It is clear that the coming months will no more be easier for Mamata Banerjee. She may land up losing own home turf in West Bengal Assembly election 2021 .

2016 Assembly Election Analysis

When Mamata Banerjee took over the charge as a Chief Minister of West Bengal, she was seen as symbol of hope by the people of Bengal. She was the leader who single handedly brought to end the 34 years of left rule in Bengal. Eight years down the Bengal is again craving for change. Lok Sabha election was evident about it. In 2016 assembly election, when most of the states were saffronised, Bengal refused to it. Instead the state reposed its trust upon its Didi, Mamata Banerjee. TMC under the leadership of Mamata Banerjee went on win 211 of 293 assembly seats that went in for polls. BJP, though riding on Modi wave could manage only 3 assembly seats.

If the results are carefully analysed, then we can see that TMC has managed to retain the vote share in 2019 Lok Sabha election similar to that of 2016 assembly election. However, BJP which managed only 10% in 2016 assembly, took its tally to 40%. If BJP manages to maintain the similar vote share and add around 3-4% then things may be very much difficult for Mamata Banerjee in Bengal. She may infact land up losing the West Bengal Assembly election 2021 .

Google Trends

If we analyse the Google trend data, and compare it between BJP and TMC in Bengal, it is pretty much clear that TMC is losing ground in Bengal. The gradual decline of TMC can be reflected in the behaviour of State CM Mamata Banerjee. She is found to have encircled herself everyday in some or other controversies. From “Jai Shree Ram” to the physical assault on the junior doctors, Mamata Banerjee just to please her vote banks is gradually killing her own party. How much this will be reflected in the assembly results, it is for time to decide. However, as of now BJP is making a huge in roads in the Bengal.

Read: Will BJP win 400+ seats in Lok Sabh 2014?

Outcome

BJP started gaining in Bengal since its strong showing in panchayat election. BJP has grown tremendously in the rural Bengal and North Bengal. Even in the border districts and in the districts with strong Matua population BJP has been doing great. The tribal-dominated districts of Bankura, Purulia, Jhargram too have voted massively for BJP in the panchayat polls despite unlimited violence from the ruling party. Also, BJP is traditionally strong in regions with high non Bengali populations.

In Lok Sabha election, BJP gained alot in North Bengal and the regions bordering the state ruled by BJP. If BJP maintains the similar lead similar lead also in West Bengal Assembly election and manages to add up 20 odd seats where it stood close second, then the state of West Bengal may be saffronised in coming West Bengal Assembly election 2021 .

Prerna Sewa