Aeon-CrowdWisdom360 Urban Opinion Poll: The Battle for Indian Families

Aeon-CrowdWisdom Opinion Poll is 3 weeks old now and we now have 6000 sample from 19 cities covering 43 seats. Here are some key highlights and one key take away

Firstly, here is the status as of yesterday (2000 sample is reported everyday, collected over a week), the data below the chart is for a sample of 6000

 

BJP

– In 2014, BJP won 39.4% of the vote in these seats, it is down to 36.4% now. This loss has reduced after budget

-While the overall drop is 4%, it is only 1.9% amongst women. This is primarily because amongst the poorest women, BJP’s vote share is up from 40% in 2014 to 40.7% in 2019. This is in line with the focus of PM Modi’s major social programs. Even amongst poor men, the vote share drop is just 1%

– BJP has lost big amongst the middle and lower middle class groups where the vote share loss is 3.3%. This could get worse if the opposition comes up with a better offer. Strategically, BJP must focus on this segment as this forms the biggest voting block in urban India

Congress

– In 2014, Congress won 20.4% of the vote in these seats, it is up to 22.5% now. This gain has increased in the last one week.

– The problem for the Congress is that amongst poor voters, its vote share is expected to grow only 0.9%. The BJP is doing quite well here and which is why Rahul Gandhi is talking about guaranteed income scheme. This is where the Congress performs the best.

– The biggest gains for the Congress came from those who could be classified as middle and lower middle income. This group constitutes 61% of urban voters. Strategically Congress must target this group much more than the poorest as they appear to be open to the Congress party

Regional Parties/ Others

– No major vote share change amongst others versus 2014. However, everytime BJP appears to be getting a bounce, ‘Regional Parties’ are suffering much more than the Congress

– ‘Regional Parties’ are able to gain marginally amongst the poor while losing the middle/lower middle class vote.

– In the battle between BJP and Congress, the regional parties donot appear to be offering a proposition that will move the needle. Perhaps this will change once the common minimum program is announced.

Young Voters: BJP continues to dominate amongst voters below the age of 25. Congress has gained a lot here but its base vote is still quite low at 20%.

Older Voters (> 45 years): This is Congress’s best performing voting group after poor voters. However, BJP hasn’t lost significant share amongst these voters either

Young Family Group (25-45 yrs): It is here that BJP appears to be losing the most, a nearly 4% swing. This is also where there are far more undecided voters than other voting groups

Conclusion: The 2019 election is going to be about the middle. Middle/Lower Income Young Families (below 18 year old Children’s Parents) who are perhaps bothered by slowing income growth and worries about their future income. They worry for themselves as well as their children. They appear to be defecting from the BJP but it is interesting to note that the number of voters in this group is increasing quite slowly indicating low voter enthusiasm. This group makes up for nearly 40% of the voters. Should the BJP leak further votes here, the opposition could make a big fight out of 2019, should BJP recover this group, it is game over for the Opposition. Watch out!