2024 Presidential Election Polls: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Race?

With Joe Biden in office after the 2020 Presidential Election, the Democrats had all the power to script a new history for the United States. Instead, President Biden is struggling to overcome both internal as well as international challenges. Joe Biden’s Approval Ratings paint a Presidency in serious trouble.

President Biden’s approval has been declining since he took charge of the office. He is one of the worst-rated American presidents. Here are a few ratings of President Joe Biden:

The 2024 Presidential Election is over 2 years from now, but many voters are deciding now as they did during the Coronavirus Pandemic in 2020.

The Crowdwisdom360 system which we first used in the 2020 election includes publicly available polls, google search data, social media sentiment analysis, economic metrics, and any other data sets that are a better assessment of the state of the politics. Partisan data when published will be marked by an (R) or a (D) for your convenience. Read on.

2024 Presidential Election Polls: Will Donald Trump be the Nominee of the Republican Party?

Former President Donald Trump who is 75 now will turn 77 years old in 2024. He, however, is younger than the current president Joe Biden who is already 79 and will turn 81 in 2024.

Donald Trump running for the 2024 election is not a doubt but the only thing that may stop him from running is his health. But looking at Trump currently and his enthusiasm to win back the Oval Office, he most probably will be running for the 2024 election. But he will be undergoing the challenge of his fellow Republicans who might be eyeing the Office of President of the United States of America in 2024, the most probable names being former Vice President Mike Pence and the current Florida Mayor Ron DeSantis.

Recently Morning Post released a survey with respect to the popularity of Donald Trump in the states that goes for polls in November this year. In most states, 8 out of 10 likely Republican voters preferred Trump over the rest of the candidates. Therefore, looking at his popularity, Donald Trump will likely be the Republican nominee for the 2024 Presidential election.

The latest prediction by Smarkets too shows Donald Trump to be the most favored Republican for the 2024 Presidential election. Currently, Trump enjoys the support of over 45% of the predictors in the platform while DeSantis has nearly 21% support.

For Mike Pence, less than 10% of the predictors believe he may be the GOP candidate for the 2024 Presidential election.

2024 Presidential Election Polls: Will Joe Biden be the Nominee of the Democratic Party?

Joe Biden recently expressed his desire of contesting the 2024 Presidential election and he also said that he would be fortunate to face Donald Trump again in 2024.

However, the election being more than 2 years from now, the candidature of Joe Biden for 2024 will depend on several factors, the important ones being the result of the upcoming Senate election, the US economy, and the international relation of the United States under Biden administration. Added to it, Joe Biden’s health as well as his age may play an important role in determining Biden’s candidature for the 2024 Presidential election.

If Democratic Party fails to perform in the upcoming Senate election and loses the power of Congress, Biden for 2024 may be far from reality.

As per the prediction platform, Smarkets, only 28% of the respondents or participants are positive about Biden being the Democratic Party’s nominee for the 2024 Presidential election. Around 23% of the participants believe, Kamala Harris could be the Presidential nominee of Democrats for 2024.

2024 Presidential Election Polls: What are the latest Polls Saying about the 2024 Election?

Statewise Polls [Note: Only those states have been considered which were won by Donald Trump in 2016 but Flipped by Biden in 2020]

2024 Presidential Election Polls: Arizona

2024 Presidential Election Polls: Pennsylvania

2024 Presidential Election Polls: Wisconsin

2024 Presidential Election Polls: Georgia

2024 Presidential Election Polls: Michigan

2024 Presidential Election Polls: Dems vs Republican Party

2024 Presidential Election Polls: Google Search Data, State-Level Data

Joe Biden

Donald Trump

2024 Presidential Election Polls: Social Media Sentiment State-Level Data

Data for the states that were narrowly won by Joe Biden in 2016. (Last 7 Days Data)

The close States or the States where the Margin of Victory was less than 5%

1. Georgia, 0.23% (11,779 votes) – 16 electoral votes
2. Arizona, 0.31% (10,457 votes) – 11 electoral votes
3. Wisconsin, 0.63% (20,682 votes) – 10 electoral votes
4. Pennsylvania, 1.16% (80,555 votes) – 20 electoral votes
5. North Carolina, 1.35% (74,483 votes) – 15 electoral votes
6. Nevada, 2.39% (33,596 votes) – 6 electoral votes
7. Michigan, 2.78% (154,188 votes) – 16 electoral votes
8. Florida, 3.36%- 29 Electoral Votes

2024 Presidential Election Polls: Which Counties are critical for Trump to return to power?

1. Michigan: Biden won in Michigan by 145,151 votes.

Michigan has a total of 83 counties. In 2016 Donald Trump won the state by a margin of 0.3% votes against Hillary Clinton. In 2016, 12 counties flipped from Democrats to Republicans and Trump won 9 of the 14 Congressional districts.

In 2020, of 83 counties, Democrats were ahead of Republicans in 11 counties. Apart from the 8 counties where Democrats were ahead in 2016, Joe Biden flipped Saginaw, Kent, and Leelanau in 2020. However, the counties that played important role in deciding the outcome of Michigan were Washtenaw and Wayne.

Arizona: Biden won in Arizona by 10,377 votes.

Arizona has 15 counties and in 2020 of 15 counties, Biden won 5 counties while Trump was ahead in 10 counties. The final result was, however, in favor of Joe Biden as he received an overall 49.4% votes while Donald Trump received 49.1% votes.

Of the 5 counties, in Maricopa Biden got 45,109 more votes than Trump and in Pima Biden was ahead of Trump by over 95,000 votes.

In 2016, Donald Trump won Michigan by 4%. The deciding county for 2020 was Maricopa which Trump had won in 2016. Donald Trump received 590,465 votes while Hillary Clinton got 549,040 votes. In 2020 Biden flipped the county and polled over 1 Million votes, Trump on the other hand got around 5000 votes less than a million.

Pennsylvania: Biden won in Pennsylvania by 72,829 votes

In Pennsylvania, Joe Biden got 50% of the total votes polled while Donald Trump got 48.8% of the votes in 2020. Of 67 counties in Pennsylvania, Joe Biden was ahead in only 13 counties and Trump, despite leading in 54 of the 67 counties lost the state by a mere 1.2% votes.

Here is how the 13 counties won by Joe Biden voted for both Trump and Biden:

In 2016, Trump won the state by a margin of 1.2%. He got a total of 48.8% votes while Hillary Clinton polled 47.6% of votes.

In 2020, Erie and Northampton counties flipped from Republicans to Democrats. However, the major reason for Trump’s defeat in Pennsylvania were the counties of Delaware, Allegheny, Montogomery, and Philadephia. In all these counties, the Democrats lead the Republicans by over 100,000 votes. In Philadelphia, the lead was around 500,000 votes.

Wisconsin: Biden won in Wisconsin by 20,565 votes.

Biden won Wisconsin by a slim margin of 0.7% vote share. Trump polled a total of 48.9% votes while Biden received 49.6% of the total votes. In 2016 Trump won the state by a 1% margin.

Wisconsin has 72 counties and the Republicans in 2020 were ahead in 58 counties but the election result was decided by the 14 counties where the Democrats were ahead.

The counties where the Democrats were ahead of the Republicans in 2020 are:

Biden flipped Door county which was won by Trump in 2016. However, the counties deciding the result of the 2020 election were Dane County and Milwaukee. In Dane, Democrats lead the Republicans by nearly 200,000 while in Milwaukee, in 2016 Clinton got slightly over 288,000 votes. But in 2020, the Democrats polled over 317,000 votes. Trump’s votes too increased in Milwaukee but the increase was minor to what Biden gained.

Georgia: Biden won in Georgia by 13,977 votes

Biden won the Republican stronghold, Georgia by minor 0.2% votes. In the 2020 election, Biden got a 49.5% vote share in Georgia while Trump polled 49.3% vote share. In 2016, Trump won the state by nearly 5% vote share.

Georgia has a total of 159 counties and in 2020 Democratic party was ahead of Republican Party in only 30 of the 159 counties but in the end, the 30 counties decided the end result of the state.

Here is how the 30 counties where Biden was ahead, voted for both Biden and Trump:

In the majority of the counties, the victory margin was very less for Joe Biden but in a few of the counties the margin went over 40% and these counties helped Joe Biden defeat Donald Trump in Georgia despite, Trump leading in 129 of 159 counties of Georgia.

In Clayton, Trump received only 14% of the total votes polled while in DeKalb, Biden was ahead of Trump by around 250,000 votes. Fulton County was the last nail in the coffin for Trump in Georgia. Biden polled 380,212 votes in Fulton county while Trump could manage only 137,247 of the total votes.

2024 Presidential Election Polls: Some Important Stats Relating to Counties

Data Source: Wikipedia

2024 Presidential Election Polls: Counties with the highest percentage of Democratic vote

1. Kalawao County, Hawaii – 95.8%
2. Washington, D.C. – 92.15%
3. Prince George’s County, Maryland – 89.26%
4. Oglala Lakota County, South Dakota – 88.41%
5. Petersburg, Virginia – 87.75%

2024 Presidential Election Polls: Counties with the highest percentage of the Republican vote

1. Roberts County, Texas – 96.18%
2. Borden County, Texas – 95.43%
3. King County, Texas – 94.97%
4. Garfield County, Montana – 93.97%
5. Glasscock County, Texas – 93.57%

2024 Presidential Election Polls: State Elections in 2021

Since Joe Biden was inaugurated as the 46th President of the United States, there have been three major state elections to elect its Governor.

1. California: In California elections were held after a recall petition was launched against first-term Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat due to his handling of Coronavirus. The elections were again conducted under the shadow of Coronavirus. Despite Republican candidate Larry Elder garnered immense support, the recall was not successful. A whopping 61.8% of voters voted against the recall petition and the petition got canceled.
2. New Jersey: New Jersey a Democratic stronghold held a Gubernatorial election on November 2nd, 2021. The incumbent Democrat Governor Phil Murphy was against the Republican Jack Ciattarelli. The election was one of the closest ones could have ever expected. Phil Murphy, despite retaining the office, Republican Jack Ciattarelli gave the toughest fight. Phil Murphy got 51.2% of the votes while Republican Jack Ciattarelli received 48.0% vote share.
3. Virginia: The election to the Governor’s Office of Virginia was held on November 2nd, 2022. The incumbent Democratic Governor Ralph Northam, due to term limits could not run for the office again. Former Governor Terry McAuliffe won the Democratic primary and Glenn Youngkin was nominated at the Republican convention. The election was again a closely contested one but the Democratic Party failed to retain the state. Republican Glenn Youngkin won the election and was elected as the new Governor of Virginia.

The results were evident of Democratic Party gradually losing the grip of the states despite being able to retain 2 of the 3 states.

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2024 Presidential Election Polls: Videos

2024 Presidential Election Polls: What Happened in the Last Election?

On November 3rd, 2020, the United States voted to elect the 46th President of the country. On ballots were the then President, Donald Trump, and the Democratic Party’s representative, Joe Biden.

The 2020 Presidential Election was fought under the fear of Coronavirus. Due to the pandemic, a record number of ballots were cast early and by mail. The election saw the highest voter turnout by percentage since 1900 with each of the two main tickets receiving more than 74 million votes, surpassing Barack Obama’s record of 69.5 million votes in 2008.

Biden received more than 81 million votes while former President Donald Trump received over 74 Million votes. Biden secured 306 Electoral votes while Trump could get only 232 electoral votes. With counting taking around a week’s time, Joe Biden was declared the winner on November 7th. Biden and Harris were inaugurated on January 20, 2021.