Arizona Governor race 2022 Polls: Will Kari Lake End the Dominance of Democrats in Arizona?

The Arizona Governor Race 2022 will be held on November 8^th. Incumbent GOP Governor Ducey is termed out after serving 2 terms.

Democrats have found success in the state at the federal level in 2018 and 2020, winning and flipping both senate seats as well as winning Arizona’s 11 electoral votes in 2020. They have had less success at state level but came agonizingly close to winning both the State House and Senate last year, where Republicans hold small majorities of 31-29 and 16-14 respectively.

Ducey’s popularity in 2018 helped him win convincingly by a margin of 14 points but that race has now opened up and Democrats see an opening. Most prognosticators rate this race as a “toss-up”, including RCP, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Cook Political Report.

Arizona will once again remain a battleground this year, featuring an extremely competitive senate race for the third cycle running where Mark Kelly is running for a full term after winning in 2020 to complete the last 2 years of John McCain’s 6-year term. Read our preview on that race.

Brnovich considered entering the race before ending up challenging Kelly in the senate election.

Hobbs has succeeded in clearing the Democratic field and is the outright favorite to win her primary. The GOP side had been in flux as Trump looked for a nominee who believed in the “big lie” in one of the battleground states of 2020 that Biden won by a whisker.

Trump decided to support political novice and TV anchor Lake, who believes Biden did not win the election fairly. She has been supportive of Cyber Ninjas, a group that has spent millions of dollars on investigating potential electoral fraud in Maricopa County, home to a majority of the state’s residents and one of the counties Biden flipped in 2020. This “audit” has been endorsed by the state GOP party.

Arizona Governor Race 2022 Polls: Latest Election Update

Kimberly Yee drops out of Arizona governor’s race

Arizona Treasurer Kimberly Yee announced Saturday she was dropping out of the race for governor and instead would seek a second term as the state’s chief investment officer.

Hobbs, Lake have burned through most cash in gubernatorial race

Democrat Katie Hobbs spent the most money in 2021, yet Republican Kari Lake ended the year with less cash than her primary opponents.

Arizona Governor Race 2022 Polls: Google Search Update

Last 7 days,

Kari Lake: 86%
Katie Hobbs: 14%

Kari Lake, one of the Republican candidates for the primaries has been endorsed by former President Donald Trump. Kari Lake is well ahead of other Republican candidates and is also ahead of Democrat Katie Hobbs.

As of 18th January, she is 72% ahead of Katie Hobbs in Google Trend data.

Arizona Governor Race 2022 Polls: Candidates in the primaries

The Republican field is much more competitive than the Democratic side. Here are the candidates running in the primary.

Republican Primary

• Steve Gaynor, businessman and nominee for Arizona Secretary of State in 2018
• Kari Lake, former KSAZ-TV news anchor
• Matt Salmon, vice president of government affairs at Arizona State University,
• Kimberly Yee, Arizona State Treasurer (2019–present)

Democratic Primary

• Katie Hobbs, Arizona Secretary of State (2019–present)
• Aaron Lieberman, state representative (2019–2021)
• Marco López Jr., former chief of staff for the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (2009–2011) and former mayor of Nogales (2001–2004)

Arizona Governor Race 2022 Polls: Latest Primary Polls

A. Republican Primary

There have been 2 polls conducted in the last 6 months, with only 1 poll conducted after Trump endorsed Lake in late September. That poll was conducted by OH Predictive Insights from Nov 1-8. It is a non-partisan poll but contains a very small sample size of 252 registered Republican voters., resulting in a large margin of error of +/- 6.2%.

It shows Lake with a plurality lead but a large no. of undecided voters.

Kari Lake: 28%
Matt Salmon: 11%
Kimberly Lee: 6%
Steve Gaynor: 2%
Undecided: 51%

B. Democratic Primary

The same pollster asked 229 Democratic voters their primary preference. Katie Hobbs has a commanding lead in the poll which has a +/- 6.5% margin of error.

Katie Hobbs: 42%
Aaron Lieberman: 6%
Marco Lopez Jr: 8%
Undecided: 44%

Hobbs is the most high-profile candidate in the race. She is the only state-wide office holder on the Dem side and her profile was boosted after she was threatened by Trump in the aftermath of the 2020 election. As Secretary of State, she helps administer elections.

Arizona Governor Race 2022 Polls: Racial Demographics

As per the latest 2020 Census figures

Arizona is a majority state with a large Hispanic population. Latinos make the majority in Phoenix and Tucson as well as along the border. 63% of the population lives in Maricopa County which is home to Phoenix and other cities like Scottsdale, Mesa and Tempe. It is the 4th most populous county in USA. Biden became the first democratic nominee to win the county since 1948, helping him win the state. This is the most important county in the state, and maybe the country.

Arizona Governor Race 2022 Polls: Candidate Endorsements

1. Karrin Taylor Robson

• Fife Symington, 19^th Governor of Arizona (1999-2007)
• Jan Brewer, 22^nd Governor of Arizona (2009-2015)

2. Kari Lake

• Donald Trump,
• Michael Flynn, U.S. National Security Advisor
• Paul Gosar, U.S. Representative for Arizona’s 4th congressional district

3. Matt Salmon

• Sam Brownback, former Senator and Governor of Kansas
• Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator from Texas (2013–present)
• Lindsey Graham, U.S. Senator from South Carolina (2003–present)
• Cynthia Lummis, U.S. Senator from Wyoming (2021–present

4. Kimberley Lee

• Debbie Lesko, U.S. Representative from Arizona’s 8th congressional district (2018–present)

Arizona Governor Race 2022 Polls: General Election

The two favorites to win their respective primaries are Kari Lake and Katie Hobbs. As such, they have been the most polled head-2-head. There haven’t been too many polls conducted. The only one shows the AZ Secretary of State with a slight advantage.

It was conducted by Redfield and Wilton Strategies on Nov 10, 2021. Joe Biden had a -6% net approval in the state.

Kari Lake: 37%
Katie Hobbs: 41%
Undecided: 18%

This race remains close, although signs indicate Democrats could be favored. Gubernatorial races aren’t as impacted by the national environment as federal races, so Biden’s poor job approval numbers may not hurt the party as much. AZ GOP remains divided and their explicit pro-Trump route has hurt them in an ancestral Republican state Trump did poorly in. Democrats benefit from a strong nominee, while Republicans are likely to nominate a political novice.

Arizona Governor Race 2022 Polls: Voter Registration

From the latest figures released by the Arizona Secretary of State.

As of July 2021, the state has 4.32 Million Registered Voters.

34.72% are registered Republicans
31.78% are registered Democrats
32.60% are Independents

Arizona Governor Race 2022 Polls : Latest Campaign News

[17th January] As first campaign finance reports are filed, the governor’s race comes into focus

[17th January] Five takeaways from Donald Trump’s rally in Arizona

Arizona Senate Race 2022 Polls : Latest Tweets, Jan 17

Originally tweeted by Brian Glenn (@brianglenntv) on January 16, 2022.

Gubernatorial candidate @KariLake talks about how God has blessed her to be in the position to fight for Arizonans. Yes, God is good. #Arizona #karilake #Midterms2022 #Governor #AmericaFirst #Trump

Originally tweeted by Katie Hobbs (@katiehobbs) on January 16, 2022.

Donald Trump just finished his rally where he repeatedly spewed lies about the 2020 election and encouraged the ongoing and dangerous attacks on our democracy. And Trump and his puppet @KariLake have made it clear they will reject the will of the people in future elections. 🧵⬇️

Here’s the truth:
🗳️ 2020 was the most secure election in history
🧑‍🤝‍🧑 We saw historic participation among voters
🛑 Trump’s attempts to overturn the election failed
📈 Joe Biden won Arizona by more than 10K votes

Fair and secure elections are the foundation of our democracy. And we must do everything we can to protect the freedom to vote for everyone. I’ve taken on this fight and won, and I’m ready to do it again. That’s why I’m running for governor.