Arizona Governor Polls 2022: Hobbs Leads In New Polls but Undecided to Play a Key Role

Arizona Governor Polls 2022: Hobbs Leads In New Polls but Undecided to Play a Key Role

Arizona Governor Polls: In the new Kari Lake Polls, the Democratic Party’s candidate Katie Hobbs is leading by a percentage over Kari Lake.

Latest Arizona Governor Polls: Kari Lake: 43%, Katie Hobbs: 44%.


The fight between Kari Lake and Katie Hobbs for the post of Governor of Arizona is headed for a wire finish. Both Kari Lake and Katie Hobbs have equal chances of winning the election.

Arizona Election Polls and Trends

Arizona Governor Polls 2022: Kari Lake: 46%, Katie Hobbs: 45%.

Google Search Share: Kari Lake: 64%, Katie Hobbs: 36%.

Social Media Sentiment: Kari Lake: -46.4%, Katie Hobbs -45.4%.

Net Favorability (Emerson): Kari Lake: +1%, Katie Hobbs +2%
CrowdwisdomLIVE Prediction: Kari Lake to win by 3%


When is the Arizona Governor’s Race?

Arizona’s Gubernatorial and Presidential elections have been dominated by Republicans for years. However, in the 2020 Presidential election, Joe Biden flipped the state and shocked Donald Trump. The upcoming Governor election is an opportunity not only for Republicans but also for Donald Trump to avenge the 2020 defeat.

The 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election will take place on November 8, 2022.

Arizona Governor Candidates 2022

The Republican Party Candidate Kari Lake, 53, is a former evening anchor at Fox-10 in Phoenix Arizona. She worked at Fox between 1999 and 2021. She was a Republican until 2006 before switching to being an Independent in 2006, registered as a Democrat in 2008 and returned to the Republican party again in 2012. Kari Lake was endorsed by former President Donald Trump before the Republican Primary.

The Democratic Party Candidate Katie Hobbs, 52, was a social worker until 2010 before being elected to the Arizona House of Representatives as a Democrat in 2010. She was elected to the Arizona Senate in 2012 and served as the Senate Minority Leader.

2022 Arizona Governor Elections Predictions

Who is Leading?Trending Towards
PollsKari LakeKatie Hobbs
Social Media SentimentKari LakeKari Lake
Google SearchKari LakeKatie Hobbs

A Stolen Election? | Trump: The Comeback

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Arizona Governor Race 2022 Polls: Key Observations and Insights

Arizona is one red state which is increasingly turning purple as Kari Lake’s lead is narrowing in the latest polls. It indicates that Former President Trump’s strong support for Lake is a doubtful advantage attracting some voters and at the same time repelling others. The Former President is expected to return to Arizona for an Oct. 9 rally to support his endorsed Arizona candidates ahead of the Nov. 8 election.

A judge in Arizona judge ruled that the state can enforce a near-total abortion ban after Roe vs Wade was overturned. It is unclear if this will be a big factor in the election as Arizona is one of the few states where the Democratic party gains were really small after Rose vs Wade was overturned.

In Arizona as per the latest survey, Inflation/economy is the main issue, and in this respect, the Republicans have already heaped all the blame on the Biden administration.

The abortion issue is the second on the list but it has an almost equal concern as a Threat to Democracy which is 3rd on the list.

Joe Biden’s approval rating in the state is 41% while only 32% of the Arizonians are happy with the working of the incumbent Governor Doug Ducey.

In the last 5 polls, Kari Lake has been ahead of Katie Hobbs in 3 polls but in the last 2 polls, Katie Hobbs is leading by a small margin.

Kari lake is leading amongst Older men and Hispanic voters while trailing amongst younger voters, Women, and unaffiliated/independent voters. She is also significantly ahead amongst Non-College Grads.

Katie Hobbs is in a comfortable position demographically but she will be under great threat from Kari Lake, particularly with intersecting issues (Inflation for example) amongst moderate women. Kari Lake will also attempt to push her vote share amongst non-college going men to about 60% from the current 50%

Arizona Governor Race 2022 Polls

Average of PollsOctober 5th
Kari Lake (R)46%
Katie Hobbs (D)45%
Fox NewsSeptember 26th
Kari Lake43%
Katie Hobbs44%
Suffolk UniversitySeptember 25th
Kari Lake45%
Katie Hobbs46%
Data for Progress (D)September 21st
Kari Lake51%
Katie Hobbs47%

Accuracy of Polls in Arizona: Last 3 Governor Election

The last time a Democrat was elected to the Office of Governor in Arizona was back in 2006 and after that, the Republicans completely dominated the Governor election in Arizona. The last three Governor election in Arizona was almost one-sided with Jan Brewer winning the 2010 gubernatorial election by 12% margin and Doug Ducey winning the 2014 and 2018 election by 12 and 14-point margin respectively.

The polls also indicated a one-sided race in all the last 3 Arizona Gubernatorial elections. Almost all the polls in the last 3 elections indicated a win for the Republican candidate and the margin of win was mostly over 10%.

This time the polls have predicted a very close fight between Kari Lake and Katie Hobbs. In the last five polls, Lake has been ahead in 3 and Hobbs in 2 with the last two polls being in favor of Katie Hobbs. Added to it, the winning margin for either of the two candidates is predicted to be less than 5%.

Considering the past record of the polls in Arizona, it can be said that the Arizona Governor Election is still wide open with both Kari Lake and Katie Hobbs having an equal chance of winning.

Katie Hobbs is underperforming Joe Biden

While it is true that Trump lost the 2020 election by a narrow margin, GOP candidates in Arizona’s Gubernatorial elections have won on an average by 13% points. In 2020, Biden led Trump by an average of 3 points at this point in time. Katie Hobbs is underperforming Joe Biden.

Democrats have won very few elections in a state that has recently voted overwhelmingly Republican. Republican registrations lead Democrats by 3.5% but 1 in 3 voters are registered as Independent.

Independents may once again play important role in Arizona. The 2020 Presidential election saw a large number of Independent voters backing Democrats Joe Biden. Kari Lake is (-10%) amongst Independent voters on Net Favorability. Katie Hobbs is +8% amongst Independent voters.

Katie Hobbs needs a 6% swing from historic averages to win the election, and Kari Lake needs to keep the losses below that.


Read about other Popular Mid-Term Elections


Impact of Roe vs Wade

The Big Question is, has Roe vs Wade fundamentally changed the tone of this election?

*Nov 2021 to May 2022
Last 7 Days
Kari Lake64%
Katie Hobbs36%
Last 30 Days
Kari Lake55%
Katie Hobbs45%

Social Media sentiments

October 5th
Kari Lake46.4%
Katie Hobbs45.4%
September 30th
Kari Lake-35.1%
Katie Hobbs-49.4%

Why did Katie Hobbs refuse to Debate Kari Lake?

Kari Lake recently posted a picture of an empty chair and tagged Kattie Hobbs that the chair was hers and she missed her. Kari Lake and Katie Hobbs were to debate but Hobbs denied debating Lake in the last minute.

Her campaign manager, Nicole DeMont in her statement said that Katie Hobbs was not interested in debating the conspiracy theorist Kari Lake whose entire campaign platform causes enormous chaos and makes Arizona the subject of national ridicule.

Lake in her reply said that Katie Hobbs is hiding from her, the Press, and the Voters throughout the entirety of this campaign.

Arizona Governor Polls: Latest Videos

YouTube video

Latest Tweets from the campaign

Voter Registration Data

From the latest figures released by the Arizona Secretary of State.

As of April 2022, the state has 4.29 Million Registered Voters.

34.5% are registered as a Republican
31.0% are registered as a
Democrat
33.7% are registered as an
Independent

Demographics

Arizona is a white majority state with a large Hispanic population. Latinos make up the majority in Phoenix and Tucson as well as along the border. 63% of the population lives in Maricopa County which is home to Phoenix and other cities like Scottsdale, Mesa, and Tempe. It is the 4th most populous county in the USA.

Biden became the first Democratic nominee to win the county since 1948, helping him win the state. This is the most important county in the state, and maybe the country.

As per the latest 2020 Census figures

Arizona Governor Race 2022 Polls

The White voters have mostly backed Republicans in the past. Even in the 2020 election, the white voters did stand behind Trump but it was Maricopa County that decided the fate of the 2020 election in Arizona. Biden despite trailing Trump in the majority of the counties won in Maricopa by a huge margin. This helped him win the state in the end.

Increase in Arizona’s Hispanic Population, 2012 to 2020

Arizona Governor Race 2022 Polls

Increase in Arizona’s Population, 2012 to 2020

Arizona Governor Polls
Arizona Governor race 2022 Polls

Read: Wisconsin Governor Polls 2022