Arizona Governor Race 2022 Polls: Kari Lake v. Katie Hobbs, Polls predict a close win for Lake

Arizona Governor Race 2022 Polls: Kari Lake v. Katie Hobbs, Polls predict a close win for Lake

Arizona Governor Race 2022 Polls: Kari Lake: 49%, Katie Hobbs: 47%.
Latest Kari Lake Poll: Kari Lake: 51%, Katie Hobbs: 47%.

Google Search Share: Kari Lake: 56%, Katie Hobbs: 44%.
Social Media Sentiment: Kari Lake: -38.9%, Katie Hobbs -47.1%.

Net Favorability (Emerson): Kari Lake: +1%, Katie Hobbs +2%
CrowdwisdomLIVE Prediction: Kari Lake to win by 3%


When is the Arizona Governor’s Race?

Arizona’s Gubernatorial and Presidential elections have been dominated by Republicans for years. However, in the 2020 Presidential election, Joe Biden flipped the state and shocked Donald Trump. The upcoming Governor election is an opportunity not only for Republicans but also for Donald Trump to avenge the 2020 defeat.

The 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election will take place on November 8, 2022.

Arizona Governor Candidates 2022

The Republican Party Candidate Kari Lake, 53, is a former evening anchor at Fox-10 in Phoenix Arizona. She worked at Fox between 1999 and 2021. She was a Republican until 2006 before switching to being an Independent in 2006, registered as a Democrat in 2008 and returning to the Republican party again in 2012. Kari Lake was endorsed by former President Donald Trump before the Republican Primary.

The Democratic Party Candidate Katie Hobbs, 52, was a social worker until 2010 before being elected to the Arizona House of Representatives as a Democrat in 2010. She was elected to the Arizona Senate in 2012 and served as the Senate Minority Leader.

2022 Arizona Governor Elections Predictions

Who is Leading?Trending Towards
PollsKari LakeKari Lake
Social Media SentimentKari LakeKari Lake
Google SearchKari LakeKatie Hobbs

Kari Lake: This is a ‘poisoning’ of America

YouTube video

Arizona Governor Race 2022 Polls

Average of PollsSeptember 24th
Kari Lake49%
Katie Hobbs47%
Data of ProgressSeptember 19th
Kari Lake51%
Katie Hobbs47%
The Trafalgar Group (R)September 17th
Kari Lake50%
Katie Hobbs46%
Fabrizio Wards (D)/
Impact Research (R)
September 15th
Kari Lake48%
Katie Hobbs49%
2018 Polls AverageSeptember 2018
Ducey49%
Garcia42%

Impact of Roe vs Wade

The Big Question is, has Roe vs Wade fundamentally changed the tone of this election?

Kari Lake (R)Katie Hobbs (D)
3 Polls BEFORE Roe vs Wade was overturned by SCOTUS*41.7%44.0%
3 Polls AFTER Roe vs Wade was overturned by SCOTUS40.0%45.7%
Change after Roe vs Wade was overturned-1.7%+1.7%
*Nov 2021 to May 2022

Arizona Governor Race 2022 Polls: Key Observations and Insights

  • A judge in Arizona judge ruled that the state can enforce a near-total abortion ban after Roe vs Wade was overturned. It is unclear if this will be a big factor in the election as Arizona is one of the few states where the Democratic party gains were really small after Rose vs Wade was overturned.
  • The latest Trafalgar Poll (R) confirms our forecast a week ago, Kari Lake is now ahead of Katie Hobbs. Over the last 3 months, Lake had gained 3 points while Hobbs hadn’t gained at all.
  • Compared to the 2018 Governor election, Kari Lake is performing on par with Doug Ducey while Katie Hobbs is outperforming Democrat David Garcia by 5 points. That leaves a very small margin for either candidate.
  • Katie Hobbs has made no progress in the polls over the last 3 months. In June after the Dobbs Decision (Roe vs Wade), Katie Hobbs led by 5 points, 46% to 41%. In the latest Kari Lake vs Katie Hobbs Polls, Katie Hobbs is down 1% at 45% while Kari Lake has gained 4% and is now polling at the same level as Hobbs.
  • Katie Hobbs did not gain significantly after the Dobbs decision. Unlike Democratic party candidates in Georgia and Pennsylvania, Katie Hobbs gained just 2 points after the Dobbs decision, that lead is now gone.
  • Katie Hobbs is underperforming Joe Biden: While it is true that Trump lost the 2020 election by a narrow margin, GOP candidates in Arizona’s Gubernatorial elections have won on an average by 13% points. In 2020, Biden led Trump by an average of 3 points at this point in time. Katie Hobbs is underperforming Joe Biden.
  • Democrats have won very few elections in a state that has recently voted overwhelmingly Republican. Republican registrations lead Democrats by 3.5% but 1 in 3 voters are registered as Independent.
    • Independents may once again play important role in Arizona. The 2020 Presidential election saw a large number of Independent voters backing Democrats Joe Biden. Kari Lake is (-10%) amongst Independent voters on Net Favorability. Katie Hobbs is +8% amongst Independent voters.
  • Katie Hobbs needs a 6% swing from historic averages to win the election, and Kari Lake needs to keep the losses below that.
  • Kari lake is leading amongst Older men and Hispanic voters while trailing amongst younger voters, Women, and unaffiliated/independent voters. She is also significantly ahead amongst Non-College Grads
  • Katie Hobbs is in a comfortable position demographically but she will be under great threat from Kari Lake, particularly with intersecting issues (Inflation for example) amongst moderate women. Kari Lake will also attempt to push her vote share amongst non-college going men to about 60% from the current 50%
  • The top issue is Inflation and about 50% of the voters are worried about their future. The latest inflation data may hurt Democrat Hobbs.
  • 54% of the voters believe Lake will win the Gubernatorial election (Emerson).

Statistical Analysis of Past Elections

The last 3 Gubernatorial elections have been won by Republicans with substantial margins.

Democratic PartyRepublican Party
Average of Katie Hobbs vs Kari Lake Polls47.0%49.0%
Average of Last 3 Elections41.9%54.6%
201841.8%56.0%
201441.6%53.4%
201042.4%54.3%
Last 7 Days
Kari Lake56%
Katie Hobbs44%
Last 30 Days
Kari Lake53%
Katie Hobbs47%

Social Media sentiments

September 26th
Kari Lake-38.9%
Katie Hobbs-47.1%

Why did Katie Hobbs refuse to Debate Kari Lake?

Kari Lake recently posted a picture of an empty chair and tagged Kattie Hobbs that the chair was hers and she missed her. Kari Lake and Katie Hobbs were to debate but Hobbs denied debating Lake in the last minute.

Her campaign manager, Nicole DeMont in her statement said that Katie Hobbs was not interested in debating the conspiracy theorist Kari Lake whose entire campaign platform causes enormous chaos and makes Arizona the subject of national ridicule.

Lake in her reply said that Katie Hobbs is hiding from her, the Press, and the Voters throughout the entirety of this campaign.

Arizona Governor Race: Latest Videos

YouTube video

Increase in Arizona’s Hispanic Population, 2012 to 2020

Increase in Arizona’s Population, 2012 to 2020

Latest Tweets from the campaign

Demographics

Arizona is a white majority state with a large Hispanic population. Latinos make up the majority in Phoenix and Tucson as well as along the border. 63% of the population lives in Maricopa County which is home to Phoenix and other cities like Scottsdale, Mesa, and Tempe. It is the 4th most populous county in the USA. Biden became the first Democratic nominee to win the county since 1948, helping him win the state. This is the most important county in the state, and maybe the country.

As per the latest 2020 Census figures

The White voters have mostly backed Republicans in the past. Even in the 2020 election, the white voters did stand behind Trump but it was Maricopa County that decided the fate of the 2020 election in Arizona. Biden despite trailing Trump in the majority of the counties won in Maricopa by a huge margin. This helped him win the state in the end.

Voter Registration Data

From the latest figures released by the Arizona Secretary of State.

As of April 2022, the state has 4.29 Million Registered Voters.

34.5% are registered as a Republican
31.0% are registered as a
Democrat
33.7% are registered as an
Independent

Arizona Governor race 2022 Polls

Read: Wisconsin Governor Polls 2022